Betrader's picks

[betrader]

Great to see a bit of football being played and I am sure we will see a few odd match odds results such as Leverkusen last night being beaten 4 - 1 despite positive stats, but as usual the Overs & Unders goals markets can often produce some great in-play results from both a betting and a trading point of view.
As an example the Over 4.5 market for Leverkusen touched a high of 36.0 (35/1) during play and went onto win and the more obvious Over 2.5 market on two occasions, before and between goals, popped up nicely and well over even money and won easily as a more likely target market.
The first goal didn't arrive until 43 minutes and there were four second half goals.
The exchanges can offer some great opportunities based on time lapse and later goal scoring scenarios so this is my focus based on a general pre-match goal prediction with the plus side that we can cheer for both teams to put in a good performance.

17:30 - RB Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin. Goal Prediction: 3 - 5 goals.
Final Score: 2 - 2. Goal Times: 9, 24, 68, 82 mins.
Over 3.5 market: 2.24 sp - 1.27 @ 1 - 1 up to a 3.90 high after G2 and won.
Over 5.5 market: 7.60 sp - 3.05 low @ 1 - 1.
Good home H2H stats for Leipzig producing a consistent 3 - 5 goals per match having won the last 4 out of 5 head to head encounters.
Hertha have won their last two league matches so we may see some of the more obvious goals markets drift out if they can work out a suitable defense.
A later run of goals and both teams scoring is not out of the question.
A suitable target market would be the Over 3.5 goals.
Trading wise backing the Over 5.5 market from the start for a smaller stake may offer some suitable cover in case Leipzig get off to an early flier.

Betrader.

 

[betrader]

General Goal Predictions.

Summary: A tighter evening for goals and Darmstadt missed a penalty that could have changed the course of the match but instead conceeded a late goal and lost the match from a low of 1.15. The more likely Overs markets reacted nicely with the second half goals.
Silkeborg didn't have a response and both matches had low in-play stats overall. A little disappointing for the second match which had good potential for the Over 3.5 but the first half goals kept the prices lower and unfortunately didn't hit it's lower goal expectation.

17:30 - SV Darmstadt vs Greuther Furth. Goal Prediction: 2 - 3 goals.
Final Score: 1 - 1. Goal Times: 56, 87 mins.
AOHW - 140.0 - 45.0. Over 1.5 @ 1.27 sp - 2.44 - 1.40 - 3.75 won. Over 2.5 @ 1.82/ 6.40 - 2.70 - 34.0 - 4.70 @ G2.
Generally 2 - 3 goals per match on the H2H and Darmstadt have shown some decent and more recent one sided scoring patterns.
The Over 2.5 appears to be a decent target market based on the stats.
Trading wise I will back the Correct Score, any other home win market around 13.0 to cover that potential Darmstadt one sided goal run but if it does initially run tighter then we could see some much better prices on those more likely Over 1.5/2.5 markets.

18:00 - Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland. Goal Prediction: 3 - 5 goals.
Final Score: 0 - 2. Goal Times: 20, 40 mins.
Over 5.5 market @ 8.0 sp - 15.0 - 8.0 - 19.0 - 7.40. Over 3.5 market @ 2.24 sp - 3.20 - 1.76 - 3.15 - 1.74 @ G2.
Good last 5 played H2H stats for this pairing and typically 4 - 6 goals per match with decent more recent scoring from both teams.
The Over 3.5 would make a suitable target market for betting.
Both teams to score seems a likely opportunity based on the general stats.
Trading wise I will be backing the Over 5.5 market around 8.0 from the start with a smaller than normal bet and see if I can get some better prices on the Over 2.5/3.5 if we do get any time lapse.

Good luck
Betrader.

 

[betcatalog]

I don't trust either team and although they have scoring motivation, I will stay away from the final result. I will go with the many goals, since they score and easily concede the goal, also, prehistory favors the big scores
Mainz vs Hoffenheim @@ Over 2,5

An interesting match, motivated by both clubs. The home team has the first say in the victory, but I will bet on the many goals, because they make great scores, having quite vulnerable defensive lines.
wolfsburg vs eintracht frankfurt @@ Over 2,5

Without form one team, with strong motivation the other. I will follow the motivation of Werder Bremen and I will bet at least not to lose
schalke vs werder bremen @@ 2 draw no bet

 

[betrader]

Summary: Decent late run for Hertha with the Over 1.5 later touching a very decent high of 8.20 and winning with the late goal and some lucky punter even matched up at 1000.0 on the Over 2.5 came into a low of 16.50 which is a massive trading swing of nearly 60/1.
Wolfsburg in full attack mode on the stats were clearly leaving the back door wide open, but either way there were some better prices with the Over 2.5 market eventually winning from the best price of 3.60 as another late goal sealed it's ultimate fate.
Bayern got the top end of the goal prediction and toppled the Over 4.5 that managed highs of 2.92 and 2.76 before the goals took those prices low down and never to recover.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin vs Augsburg. Goal Prediction: 3 goals.
Hertha have been scoring well of late and stand a decent chance and presents reasonable looking H2H stats with 2 - 3 + goals per game.
Final Score: 2 - 0. Goal Times: 23, 90+3 mins.
Over 1.5 market: 8.20 high & won.
Over 2.5 market 1.80 sp - 2.68 - 1.55 @ G1 - 1000.0 - 16.50 @ G2.

14:30 - Wolfsburg vs Frankfurt. Goal Prediction: 3 goals.
Wolfsburg recent win over Leverkusen (4 - 1) on the road appears to show some ability as they enter this particular encounter.
General stats show 2 - 3+ goals and especially so if Wolfsburg maintain their ability today, we could see at least 3 goals and the Over 2.5 market s.p prices reflect that possibility/chance.
Final Score: 1 - 2. Goal Times: 27, 58, 85 mins.
Over 2.5 market - 1.68 sp - 2.36 - 1.48 @ G1 - 2.34 - 1.40 @ G2 - 3.60 high & won.

17:30 - Bayern Munich vs Dussledorf. Goal Prediction: 3 - 5 goals.
Obvious stats for Munich and naturally market prices are much lower but they can creep up before or between goals so one to keep your eye on.
Over 2.5's and 3.5's are not much value from the start but even with goals in we may see markets like the Over 4.5 creep up in price later on if we see any time lapse before or between goals.
Final Score: 5 - 0. Goal Times: 15, 29, 43, 50, 52 mins.
Over 4.5 market highs: 2.92, 2.76 and won.

Good luck
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

I don't trust either team and although they have scoring motivation, I will stay away from the final result. I will go with the many goals, since they score and easily concede the goal, also, prehistory favors the big scores
Mainz vs Hoffenheim @@ Over 2,5

An interesting match, motivated by both clubs. The home team has the first say in the victory, but I will bet on the many goals, because they make great scores, having quite vulnerable defensive lines.
wolfsburg vs eintracht frankfurt @@ Over 2,5

Without form one team, with strong motivation the other. I will follow the motivation of Werder Bremen and I will bet at least not to lose
schalke vs werder bremen @@ 2 draw no bet

Good luck

 

[betrader]

Summary: A slower first match but again shows how the later scoring markets can topple the Over 1.5's at much better prices just like yesterday's Berlin example. The stats tended to pick up just around the goal times but were quite flat for the a good part of the match between goals.
Dortmund were steady in the first half stats wise and all 7 goals arrived in the second half and even that Over 5.5 market (7.60sp) touched a whopping 360.0 and later drifted to 80.0 before the quick succession of goals took it over the line with a very nice late winner.
Naturally lower goals markets by the second half had crept up nicely with the suggested target Over 3.5 touching a high of 12/1 and winning.
Dortmund represents the very best of how matches can work out and can pay high dividends when you remain faithful to this ongoing process of looking to find much better in-play value.

12:30 - Dynamo Dresden vs Stuttgart. Goal Prediction: 3 + goals.
Good H2H stats for this pairing with Stuttgart having the overall advantage but Dresden also have a history of scoring.
Dresden at the bottom of the table have won their last two matches which could tighten this up a little and we could see typical lower priced markets within range such as the Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 drift out nicely in price.
The in-play stats will be a better indicator of how this one may play out and some later goals are not out of the question.
Final Score: 0 - 2. Goal Times: 18, 88 mins.
Over 1.5 market: 3.35 high & won. Over 2.5 market: 1.90 - 1.30 - 36.0 - 4.70 @ G2.

17:00 - Paderborn vs Dortmund. Goal Prediction: 3 - 4 + goals.
Another away team that shows a good H2H scoring performance against Paderborn who sit at the bottom of the league and this pairing have had some decent H2H's in the past which again may tighten this encounter up a little.
The Over 3.5 looks like a good target/bet but it may be worth backing an Over 5.5 as some general goal cover in case it gets off to a quicker start.
Final Score: 1 - 6. Goal Times: 54, 57, 72, 74, 85, 89, 90+1 mins.
Over 1.5 market: 1.92 high & won. Over 2.5 market: 4.30 high & won.
Over 3.5 market: 13.0 high & won. Over 5.5 market: Highs of 360.0, 80.0 & won.

Good luck
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Summary: A good result for our first match and healthy start odds for the rank outsiders running as high as 15.50 and winning as the later the goal just crashed the match odds market price to a low of 1.13. Sensibly you would have secured a very nice profit +466% from sp from an max return of 540% (6.40) at sp.
Always more difficult to predict as I step outside of my general watchlist and Uerdingen was disappointing although there were plenty of BF market suspends in the later stages but unfortunately no goals and a couple of losses on that one.
Worth noting from the sp prices in the last two days alone from suggested markets have seen actual starting price winners at 2.30, 7.40 and 6.40 (which are decent prices regardless), and where those actually touched BF in-play highs of 13.0 - 360.0! and 15.50.
This illustrates the regular superior additional value that can be obtained from outlined markets that fall within my general goal prediction.

At 17:00 (U.K) Tallina Kalev may stand a better chance in the match odds markets than the odds would suggest and they are at home and available at 6.40 against Tallinna JK Legion who go off as a short 1.56 favourites.
This one is more of a hunch but the odds do look generous despite the fact they have not played each other since 2011 and a tighter match goal wise could be on the cards.
Final Score: 1 - 0. Goal Times: 86 mins (penalty).
Match Odds: 6.40 sp - Market High: 15.50 - 1.13 @ G1 & won.

Over at German 3 Liga starting at 18:00 (U.K) we have Uerdingen vs SV Meppen which looks like we could see a decent H2H encounter and 3 goals for the Over 2.5 market are not out of the question.
Both teams are mid division with the home team in arguably better recent form we could see a few goals for this one with Uerdingen having won 4 out of their last 5 H2H encounters.
As a cheeky token correct score bet/trade I will initially back the any other home win at around 17.0 and look to focus on better prices for the Over 1.5/2.5 markets.
Final Score: 0 - 0.
All Markets - No Show.

Good luck
Betrader.

 

[betrader]

Summary: Not a great deal for this one in terms of winning markets. MGB had very good stats until they were issued a red card which seemed to take the edge off the match although there were a couple more BF suspends we didn't see any more goals.
One second half goal often leads to more but great to see some decent prices creep up for typical markets which is often the case when the better teams are on the road.

19:30 - Freiburg vs Monchengladbach. Goal Prediction: 2 - 3 + goals.
Much better form for the away team and a potentially vulnerable Over 2.5 market which could provide a suitable target market and we should see at least 3 goals for this match. The away leg may provide some suitable time lapse before or between goals which will see the prices improve.
I will initially back the Over 4.5 market to offer some early goal potential cover and typically I use an additional token bet to top up the potential at much higher prices if they drift out, as the price can regularly snap back into line (correction) if we see a later goal scoring scenario.
Final Score: 1 - 0. Goal Times: 58 mins.
Over 1.5: 2.34 - 1.27. Over 2.5: 6.0 - 2.40. Over 4.5: 60.0 - 20.0

Good luck.
Betrader

 

[betrader]

I have updated last nights match and a bit of a quiet one for me but all part of the strike rate where in-play events don't always line up with the pre-match expectation, but still some decent trading options when you look at targeting better prices but no actual market winners.
More of a random trading/waiting day for me as a lot of the Overs markets are quite short on price but here are a few of some interest that I will be keeping an eye on for this afternoon.

14:30 - Frankfurt vs Mainz.
The home team are in decent form and recently beat Wolfsburg and both of Frankfurt's most recent wins have ended over 2.5 goals.
we could see 3 goals for this match and Mainz are struggling a little bit so the even money on Frankfurt's match odds may provide a bonus.
The last 5 x H2H matches for this pairing have produced 4 out of 5 Over 2.5 goal results.
Target Market: Over 2.5 goals.
Final Score: 0 - 2. Over 2.5 market: 2.94 - 1.66 - 4.90 - 1.88 @ G2.

14:30 - Leverkusen vs B.Munich.
Decent H2H for this pairing with a consistent H2H of 3 - 4 + goals and good recent scoring from both teams. Again the markets are poised to see goals but we may see some time before or between those goals but it is an awkward one to find a suitable market from the start.
Target Market: Over 3.5 goals.
Final Score: 2 - 4. Over 3.5 market: High 2.12 & won.

14:30 - RB Leipzig vs Paderborn. The H2H is not that overly inspiring but we could expect 3 - 5 goals at least with a strong home team advantage.
Typical overs markets are short but covering an Over 5.5 market from the start may be the only real option in case we get a strong first half or indeed a later scoring scenario may offer up a bonus.
Target Market: Over 3.5 goals.
Final Score: 1 - 1. Over 5.5 market: 9.20 - 4.80 @ G1. Over 3.5 - 2.48 - 1.66 @ G1.
Other Markets: Late Over 1.5 touched 5.30 & won. Over 2.5 touched 110.0 into 7.60.

Good luck.
Betrader.