Beating the Closing Line Doesn't Always Mean You're Good: Where CLV Misleads

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay so I've been doing the thing where I write the line when I bet AND at kickoff (it was in the last thread lol). 41 bets so far. My average closing line value is +1.4 points. Everyone says that's the most important number!!
But I'm down 6.2% on those same 41. So am I good or am I just losing? And is CLV a real thing or one of those things people say on the internet?

 

[TipsAudit]

CLV is a real thing, but 41 bets can't settle it either way, for the good number or the bad one.

Your -6.2% first. At odds around 2.0, the 95% range on 41 flat bets is roughly plus or minus 30% from luck alone. So being down 6.2% says almost nothing yet.

Your +1.4 is the more useful number, but it is noisy too. For scale, the value flags we log have 1,546 settled and average +1.6% against the close, with a 95% interval of +1.1% to +2.1%. It took that many for the interval to clear zero clearly, so keep logging.

Two places it can mislead you. First, compare against the close with the margin taken out, because a raw comparison can flatter you. Second, use a price you could really have taken, not the first one you saw. In our log the +1.6% is measured at the moment we spotted the gap. For the 83% of flags we could re-check within 60 minutes, it drops to +1.0%, so over a third is gone by the time someone could act.

Disclosure: I run TipsAudit, which logs this publicly, so weigh that accordingly.