At What Win Rate Does Betting Stop Being Gambling and Become Investing?

[oli_sussex]

Correct summary. Betting remains gambling for vast majority regardless of skill level.

 

[ThePuntingProf]

I would largely concur with this consensus though I would add that the distinction matters less than we might think, whether one calls it gambling or investing the key questions remain identical, do you have positive expected value, are your bets properly sized relative to bankroll, and can you maintain discipline over time, the label we apply is less important than the mathematical and psychological realities.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Prof with wisdom.

Who cares what you call it if the math works.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay so I learned: it's basically all gambling unless you're like a genius with a computer and even then you can't really scale it!

Got it!

 

[SharpEddie47]

Pretty much Princess. Though "genius with a computer" is a bit extreme.

You need skill, discipline, and good bankroll management. But yes, it's essentially gambling with an edge if you're good.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

I actually feel better calling it "gambling with skill" than pretending it's investing.

More honest that way.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Same. I've been profitable for years but I'd never call myself an "investor."

I'm a gambler who's good at math and recognizing patterns.

 

[Klaus]

Accurate self-assessment.

Betting exists on spectrum between pure gambling and pure investing.

Most individuals operate in middle zone: skill-influenced gambling.

 

[TaffyTipster]

I'm on the other end of the spectrum mate.

Pure gambling with occasional lucky guesses.

 

[oli_sussex]

Taffy making profit on rugby suggests more than luck. Don't undersell yourself.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Cheers Brighton.

But I still feel like I'm just guessing most of the time.

 

[SharpEddie47]

That's interesting Taffy - you're profitable but don't feel like you have skill?

Might be imposter syndrome. Your results suggest otherwise.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Maybe.

Or maybe I've just been lucky for 12 years.

 

[Klaus]

12 years suggests skill not luck.

Variance does not sustain positive results over that timeframe.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

This thread got really interesting! I learned a lot!

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Good discussion everyone. Appreciate the different perspectives.

I think the answer is: it's complicated, depends on skill level, and probably still gambling for most of us.

 

[FadeThePublic]

And we're all okay with that as long as we're honest about it.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Exactly. Self-awareness is crucial.

Know what you're doing and why you're doing it.

 

[oli_sussex]

Good thread. Philosophical but practical. Rare combination.

 

[Klaus]

Agree. Valuable discussion of fundamental questions.

Community benefits from examining assumptions about activity nature.