At What Win Rate Does Betting Stop Being Gambling and Become Investing?

[TaffyTipster]

Proud of you butt.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Back to the topic - I think there's also a practical element beyond just win rate.

If you can't get enough money down due to limits, it doesn't matter if you're 60% accurate. You're not making meaningful income.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Excellent point Fade. The market itself determines whether betting can be investing.

If books limit you to $50 bets, you can't scale it like a real investment. That's a key difference from stock markets.

 

[Klaus]

Liquidity and market access critical factors.

Stock market: billions in daily volume, unlimited access.
Sports betting: limited access, books ban winners, cannot scale.

Structural differences suggest betting cannot truly be investing for most individuals.

 

[oli_sussex]

Even winning bettors face limits. Makes true "investing" impossible beyond certain threshold.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

So even if you're skilled enough, the market structure prevents it from being a real investment vehicle?

 

[SharpEddie47]

Basically yes. You can make supplemental income if you're good, but you can't build a portfolio like stocks/real estate.

That's probably the real distinction. Not the skill level, but the scalability.

 

[Klaus]

Correct analysis.

Skill necessary but insufficient. Market structure determines whether activity can constitute true investing.

Sports betting fundamentally limited by access and liquidity.

 

[FadeThePublic]

This is why sharp bettors run syndicates with multiple accounts. Trying to get enough volume down.

But even then, you're fighting the market to get action. Not a great investment thesis.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

This is making me think maybe I shouldn't even try to be profitable lol

Just keep it fun?

 

[SharpEddie47]

Princess that's honestly not a bad approach for most people.

Treat it as entertainment with an entertainment budget. Don't stress about ROI.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Agreed. There's nothing wrong with gambling for entertainment if you can afford it.

The problems come when people either: (1) bet money they can't afford, or (2) convince themselves they're investing when they're really gambling.

 

[Klaus]

Both scenarios lead to poor outcomes.

Honesty about activity purpose essential.

Entertainment gambling: acceptable with proper bankroll.
Delusional "investing": dangerous.

 

[TaffyTipster]

I'm definitely entertainment gambling.

Make a bit of money, lose a bit of money, have fun watching rugby.

Not trying to get rich.

 

[oli_sussex]

Realistic perspective. Most should adopt similar approach.

 

[DublinDegen]

i wish i could just do entertainment gambling... for me it became something else... not fun anymore...

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

That's the addiction element Conor. When it stops being fun and becomes compulsive.

Glad you're addressing it.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Okay so consensus check: betting can theoretically be "investing" with high enough skill, but market structure prevents it from being practical investment vehicle?

 

[SharpEddie47]

That's my conclusion. Mathematically possible, practically impossible for 99% of people.

 

[Klaus]

Agreed. Theoretical yes, practical no for most individuals.

Only large syndicates with sophisticated models and market access achieve true investment-level returns.