The Psychology of a Sports Betting Slump: How Do You Reset After a Losing Streak?

[CoachTony_Bets]

The frequency thing resonates with me. Looking back at my last three weeks, I definitely made some bets that were marginal at best. Probably betting out of boredom or FOMO more than actual conviction.

Going to implement a rule: if I'm not at least 7/10 confident on a play, I pass. No more 5/10 or 6/10 plays just to have action.

 

[FadeThePublic]

That's exactly where most people blow up. Betting marginal spots because they want action.

I've been guilty of it too. You watch 4 hours of football and feel like you should be betting something. But if nothing meets your criteria, the correct bet is no bet.

 

[DublinDegen]

the correct bet is no bet... lads thats the most logical thing ive ever heard on this forum and also the thing im absolutely the worst at following... i literally cannot watch a match without having money on it... even if theres no edge even if i know nothing about the teams... its a problem i know it is...

 

[Klaus]

Conor, your self-awareness is first step.

Consider self-exclusion from betting apps for defined period. 30 days minimum.

Watching sports without betting possible and often more enjoyable. Rediscover that before returning to betting with proper discipline.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Conor mate Klaus is right.

You've been saying you have a problem for months now.

Maybe time to actually do something about it yeah?

No judgement from me butt but you're clearly not having fun with it anymore.

 

[DublinDegen]

yeah youre probably right... ill think about it... not today though ive got 100 quid on the late premier league matches... but maybe after this weekend ill take a break... cheers for looking out lads...

 

[SharpEddie47]

Conor, I'm going to be direct: "maybe after this weekend" is what every problem gambler says. If you actually think you have a problem, self-exclude tonight. Right now. Not after this weekend.

This forum is about +EV betting and bankroll management. What you're describing is neither.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

I feel like this thread took a serious turn. Conor I hope you're okay and I agree with everyone that if you think you have a problem you should get help

Going back to the original topic though - Tony have you decided what you're gonna do? Are you taking a break or just reducing stakes?

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

I'm going to keep betting but implement some changes: (1) reduce unit size by 30%, (2) track CLV going forward, (3) only bet plays I'm 7/10+ confident on, (4) mandatory 24 hours between losing days and next bet.

And Conor - man, seriously consider what everyone's saying. There's a difference between variance and addiction, and it sounds like you might be dealing with the latter.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Good plan Tony. The 24 hour rule is smart - stops you from chasing same-day.

On a different note, anyone else think this whole conversation proves that the mental game is way more important than most people realize? Like half the forum probably has better analytical skills than they think but can't execute because of discipline issues.

 

[Klaus]

Correct assessment.

Technical analysis relatively straightforward. Emotional discipline extremely difficult.

Estimate 80% of bettors lose due to psychological errors, not analytical deficiency.

 

[oli_sussex]

Most bettors would be profitable if they bet half as often. Discipline is edge.

 

[SharpEddie47]

Brighton's right. I'd go further and say most losing bettors could flip to winning just by eliminating their worst 30% of bets. But they don't track well enough to know which bets those are.

Back to Tony's question though - the biggest psychological trap during slumps is assuming you need to change your approach. If your process has worked for years, variance doesn't invalidate it. Stay the course.

 

[TaffyTipster]

Eddie mate that's the hardest thing though innit.

Staying the course when you're bleeding money.

Like I KNOW logically that my approach works.

Made 8k last year doing exactly what I do.

But when I lose 6 bets in a row my brain's like "clearly this doesn't work anymore."

Takes proper mental strength to ignore that voice.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay real talk though - how do you guys even know if your "process" works? Like I don't really have a process, I just bet on games I think look good. Is that bad?

I'm starting to realize from this thread that I maybe don't take this as seriously as you guys do lol

 

[SharpEddie47]

Princess that's fine if betting is entertainment for you. But if you want to actually be profitable long-term, you need a defined process that you can track and measure.

"Games that look good" isn't a process, it's intuition. And intuition without data is gambling, not betting.

 

[FadeThePublic]

Yeah Princess you're basically betting blind. Which is fine if you're okay losing money long-term, but you could probably improve your results by like 20% just by tracking what types of bets actually work for you.

 

[ParlayPrincess_88]

Okay so how do I start? Like do I need to build a whole Excel model like Eddie or can I start simpler?

 

[Klaus]

Start simple. Track these minimum:

Date, sport, bet type, odds, stake, result, profit/loss.

After 100 bets, analyze which bet types profitable. Focus on those exclusively.

Excel sufficient. No complex models required initially.

 

[CoachTony_Bets]

Klaus's advice is solid. I started with just a basic Google Sheet five years ago. Date, game, pick, stake, result. Once you have 100+ bets you start seeing patterns in what works for you.

For me, I realized I was way better at college basketball situational spots than NFL totals, even though I love betting NFL. That data changed how I allocate my bankroll.