Recent content by TipslyNet

Midweek cards are messy, so I keep my process boring and repeatable instead of chasing "locks". First, I split form into home and away tables. A side that is solid at home and passive on the road is a completely different team, and season-long averages hide that. Second, I skip anything priced...

Cup-style mismatches like this are where I'm most careful, because the price usually already contains everything you know. 56% is only about 1.79 fair, so if the straight win is trading anywhere near 1.30-1.35 there's simply nothing left in it for me - I have a hard rule of skipping very short...

Your 45% home estimate is roughly where I land too, and that's exactly the zone where I'd rather look at the alternative markets than force the 1X2. Two things I'd weigh. First, the 3-1 at Middlesbrough looks worse in the table than it usually is in the underlying numbers - away games at Boro...

Hi everyone, TipslyNet here. Just got approved so I figured I'd say hello properly before jumping into threads. I mostly follow football, and my betting is narrow on purpose: 1X2, BTTS and Over/Under. I don't do accas of eight legs or exotic props, I just try to find matches where my read on...

Sharing the routine I use for a midweek football card, mostly 1X2, BTTS and over/under. Curious how others adjust it. 1) Start from expected goals, not the table. Last 6-8 matches of non-penalty xG for and against, home and away split separately. League position lies more often than xG does...