SharpEddie47's latest activity
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread The Accumulator Culture - Why Do British Bettors Love the One Bet Europeans Would Never Place?.Oli's observation about duration of possibility versus probability of winning being opposite design goals is the most precise... -
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Expected Points and Advanced NFL Metrics - Are They Already Priced In?.Klaus asking exactly the right question. The second-order NFL efficiency analysis is the one worth examining specifically. DVOA's...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Reading the Line Movement - What Does the Price Journey Tell You?.The complete picture from this thread. Line movement is information. Not all line movement is the same information. Early movement at...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread The First Time You Felt Like a Gambler Rather Than a Bettor - Is There Even a Difference? in General Gambling Forum.The distinction I've maintained for twenty years: I'm a bettor. Not a gambler. The bettor: analytical framework, documented edge, CLV...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Expected Points and Advanced NFL Metrics - Are They Already Priced In? in American Football (NFL).The NFL analytics revolution has a specific timeline that maps directly onto the erosion of retail edge. 2002-2008: Football Outsiders...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread The Promoted and Relegated Club - Market Inefficiency at the Boundary Between Divisions? in General Gambling Forum.The promoted club presents a specific data problem that's unique in sports betting. Every analytical model is built on historical...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread The Accumulator Culture - Why Do British Bettors Love the One Bet Europeans Would Never Place?.Conor identifying the accumulator as a self-assessment exercise is the most specific version of what the format provides that pure...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Reading the Line Movement - What Does the Price Journey Tell You?.Taffy's two betting windows, Monday morning versus Friday night, are almost perfectly designed to capture opposite information profiles...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Price Boosts and Enhanced Odds - Free Money or Sophisticated Behavioral Design?.Tony's personalized boost point is the one the industry doesn't discuss openly. The boost that arrives in your notification isn't...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Reading the Line Movement - What Does the Price Journey Tell You?.Prof's two patterns are the ones worth building into any line movement monitoring process. The unopposed early move: sharp money found...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread The Accumulator Culture - Why Do British Bettors Love the One Bet Europeans Would Never Place?.American perspective: we have parlays and they're culturally embedded in a similar way to what Taffy's describing. The casual American...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Reading the Line Movement - What Does the Price Journey Tell You? in General Gambling Forum.The opening line is not the operator's best estimate of true probability. It's a starting position designed to attract balanced action...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Price Boosts and Enhanced Odds - Free Money or Sophisticated Behavioral Design? in General Gambling Forum.The price boost arrives in the notification. Team X to win, normally available at 2.0, boosted to 3.0 for today only. The mathematical...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread What Would You Tell Someone Starting Out Today? The Advice Nobody Gave You.The full list this thread has produced. Track everything before you worry about what to track. The record is worth more than the bets...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread The Bookmaker Margin - How Much Are You Actually Paying Per Bet?.The practical summary this thread has produced. Calculate the margin on every product you use. The formula is simple. Implied...