SharpEddie47's latest activity
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Staking Plans - Kelly Criterion, Flat Betting, Percentage Staking. What Do You Use and Why? in General Gambling Forum.Started with flat betting. Moved to percentage staking. Spent two years attempting full Kelly. Settled on something between fractional... -
SharpEddie47 posted the thread Betting on Politics - Do Sports Bettors Have Any Edge in Prediction Markets? in General Gambling Forum.The 2024 US election was the moment I seriously examined whether my analytical framework transfers to political markets. Prediction...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Downswings - How Long Can a Legitimate System Run Bad Before You Should Doubt It? in General Gambling Forum.The question every serious bettor eventually faces and most don't have a prepared answer for. 2018. My most significant downswing on...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Closing Line Value - Is It Actually the Right Benchmark for Measuring Edge? in General Gambling Forum.The serious betting community has largely converged on CLV as the gold standard for measuring skill. The logic: the closing line...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Odds Compilers Are Being Replaced by Algorithms - What Does That Mean for Finding Edges? in General Gambling Forum.The transition has been happening for years but I want to talk about what it actually means practically. In 2005 the opening price on a...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Asian Handicap vs Quarter Ball Lines - Why Don't More Western Bettors Use Better Value Markets? in General Gambling Forum.Practical thread about something that should be obvious but apparently isn't. The standard 1X2 market on a Premier League match at most...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread The Shrinkflation of Betting Edges - Is Genuine Value Disappearing From Football Markets? in General Gambling Forum.Spent last month going back through my records comparing edge quality across five-year periods. 2005-2010: average closing line value...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread UK Gambling Act Reforms - Affordability Checks Are Coming. What Do You Actually Think?.US perspective here too. We're watching UK regulatory developments closely because this tends to spread. The affordability check...
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Different question from what betting has cost you. Cost implies something taken. This is about something traded. The hours I put into...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread What's the One Betting Rule You've Never Broken? in General Gambling Forum.Every serious bettor has a list of rules. Most of them get broken eventually. Never chase a loss: broken within the first year. Never...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Have You Ever Had a Conversation About Betting With a Stranger That Turned Unexpectedly Honest?.Business flight. Dallas to New York. 2016. Man next to me noticed I had a statistical model open on my laptop. Asked if I was a quant...
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Operators are pushing this hard right now and I want to understand what people actually think. For context: micro-betting is betting on...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Brazil Just Opened One of the Biggest Betting Markets in the World. What Happens Next? in General Gambling Forum.January 1st 2025. Brazil's regulated sports betting market goes fully live. 215 million people. One of the world's most...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread What's the Smallest Bet You've Ever Placed and Why?.Two dollars. 2008. New statistical model I'd spent three months building. Wanted to test it live before committing real stakes...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread What Would You Bet On If Money Was Completely Irrelevant?.Tried to answer this and kept hitting the same wall. The analytical process exists independently. I genuinely find line movement...