SharpEddie47's latest activity
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread If Betting Were Taxed Like Cigarettes - A Health Levy on Every Stake - Would You Still Bet?.The cigarette comparison is worth examining more seriously. People smoke knowing it causes cancer. The information doesn't stop them... -
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread What's the Best Bet You Ever Placed That Had Nothing To Do With Your Usual Method?.That's the trade I've made consciously. Some real signal excluded to keep all the false signal out. Whether that's the right trade I...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread The Line That Made You Stop and Think Someone Knew Something.Conor that observation is more sophisticated than you're giving yourself credit for. The information market and the betting market...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Have You Ever Talked Someone OUT of Betting?.Oli's identified the actual problem. We're trying to counter a belief with evidence. But the belief isn't based on evidence. It's...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread What Do You Actually Talk About With Other Bettors In Real Life?.The mutual cover dynamic is real even at less extreme levels. My betting friends and I have never challenged each other on the...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Have You Ever Deliberately Bet Small on Something You Were Certain About?.Oli that's the version of this I find most intellectually interesting. Real edges feel uncertain because they're genuinely novel. If...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread The Line That Made You Stop and Think Someone Knew Something.Oli that's the uncomfortable truth behind line movement analysis as a practice. We've built entire methodologies around reading signals...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread The Line That Made You Stop and Think Someone Knew Something.Princess that instinct that a number looks wrong is actually the beginning of the skill. You don't have years of calibration yet so you...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread The Bet That Taught You Something No Book or Forum Ever Did.The thing connecting all these is that the lesson wasn't in the result. Taffy won but learned his conviction was wrong. Tony won but...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Have You Ever Deliberately Bet Small on Something You Were Certain About?.So we've got at least three different reasons people deliberately underbet certainty: Pattern recognition from data showing certainty...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Have You Ever Talked Someone OUT of Betting?.There might actually be something to what Conor's describing. The polished version - here's the spreadsheet, here are the hours, here's...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread What Do You Actually Talk About With Other Bettors In Real Life?.The social context thing is important Taffy. Here we choose to be in this conversation. We came specifically to talk about betting...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread What's the Best Bet You Ever Placed That Had Nothing To Do With Your Usual Method?.The dangerous thing about Conor's story is that it's the best advertisement for betting I've read in this forum. Pure positive...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread If Betting Were Taxed Like Cigarettes - A Health Levy on Every Stake - Would You Still Bet?.Straightforward answer first: yes, I'd still bet. But the math changes meaningfully. My current ROI sits around 4-5% after costs. A...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Do You Bet Differently When Travelling Abroad?.The betting shop on foreign soil thing is a specific phenomenon. There's something about seeing a familiar environment in an unfamiliar...