Klaus's latest activity
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KKlaus replied to the thread Staking Plans - Kelly Criterion, Flat Betting, Percentage Staking. What Do You Use and Why?.Agreeing with Fade which doesn't happen often. The half Kelly cap at 3% that I use. Theoretically suboptimal. Practically: I have...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Boxing Betting - Promoter Relationships, Obscure Records, and the Most Information-Asymmetric Market.Have not systematically engaged with boxing markets. The modeling challenge: unlike Bundesliga football where the competition structure...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Derby Match - Does It Bet Completely Differently From a Regular Fixture?.The accumulation of specific derby effects. Draw probability elevated. Card rate elevated. Favorite underperformance documented...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Home Advantage - Is It Still Real or Has Modern Football Quietly Killed It?.The specific leagues where home advantage decline is most pronounced in my data. Bundesliga: most dramatic. German football culture...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What Did You Give Up To Get Good At This?.My children at eight and eleven. Becoming twelve and fifteen while I built a model. Nineteen and twenty-two now. I know who they are...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Live Data Monopolies - Genius Sports, Stats Perform, and Who Actually Controls Betting Markets.The model implications of official data standardization are significant. When multiple independent data sources existed, discrepancies...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Micro-Betting Explosion - Edge or Trap?.The velocity of loss is the underappreciated risk. Traditional betting: losses accumulate across days and weeks. In-play: losses can...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Do You Bet Worse On Purpose Sometimes?.Have never placed a deliberately bad bet. This is a straightforward statement of fact rather than a claim about discipline. The model...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Manager Sacking Market - Is Football Management Turnover Actually Predictable?.The Bundesliga sacking market has historically been interesting because German clubs have different ownership structures from English...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Shrinkflation of Betting Edges - Is Genuine Value Disappearing From Football Markets?.The destination question is worth examining directly. If AI compilation continues to improve and data coverage continues to expand: at...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Cricket Betting - The Most Most Complex Sports Betting Market in the World?.Cannot engage with cricket analytically. The game has no equivalent to the Bundesliga data infrastructure I've built over fourteen...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Tennis Betting - The Most Individual Sport and the Market Nobody Has Fully Cracked.The systematic approach to tennis has specific limitations I've examined. The surface adjustment is straightforward: clay court...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What Would You Bet On If Money Was Completely Irrelevant?.The thread has produced a useful taxonomy. Those for whom the analysis is primary: would continue without money. Volume would reduce...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What's the One Betting Rule You've Never Broken?.Correct. The rule reveals itself under pressure. A principle maintained only in comfortable conditions is not a principle. It is a...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Half Time Markets - Is There Genuine Value in First Half Betting?.Prof's observation about systematic watching producing insights that data alone misses. This is the category of edge that models built...