Klaus's latest activity
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KKlaus replied to the thread Bonus Abuse and Matched Betting - Gateway to Real Betting or Legitimate Strategy?.Oli identifying the selection effect. The population that transitions from matched betting to real betting is not random. It's...
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KKlaus replied to the thread MMA and UFC Betting - The Most Volatile Market in Combat Sports.Attempted to model UFC outcomes systematically. Found the following problems. Sample size: a fighter might have ten to fifteen...
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KKlaus replied to the thread VAR and In-Play Betting - How Video Review Changed the Live Experience Forever.The net effect of VAR on in-play edge: complex. The suspension eliminates certain trading opportunities that existed pre-VAR. But the...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Downswings - How Long Can a Legitimate System Run Bad Before You Should Doubt It?.The pre-committed framework addresses this problem partially. If you've done the work before the bad run: you know the expected...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Void Bet and Its Many Forms - When Your Bet Simply Ceases to Exist.The postponement void has specific implications for outright betting. A match that forms part of a betting sequence: postponed and...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The NBA Betting Market - Load Management, Tanking, and the Sport That Invented Ways to Ruin Your Bet.The NBA model challenge is different from the Bundesliga model in a specific way. The Bundesliga has stable team compositions and...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Women's Football Markets - Best Remaining Edge or Underdeveloped For Good Reason?.The differentiated approach by competition level is the correct framework. Women's Champions League: two or three clubs of dramatically...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Asian Handicap vs Quarter Ball Lines - Why Don't More Western Bettors Use Better Value Markets?.The compounding effect of margin over volume is why serious bettors treat market selection as a primary consideration rather than an...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Domestic Cups vs League Betting - Different Markets, Different Edge?.The cup hangover effect is the one I've looked at specifically in Bundesliga data. A club that has an unusually significant cup result...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Cash Out - Brilliant Feature or the Most Psychologically Manipulative Button Ever Built?.The A/B tested notification timing is the detail that moves this from "bad value product" to something more deliberate. The margin on...
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KKlaus replied to the thread xG and Expected Goals - Is It Already Priced Into Markets or Is There Still Edge?.Fade's identification of model limitations is the correct place to look for remaining edge. The Bundesliga model now incorporates...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Snooker and Darts - The Pub Sports With Surprisingly Sophisticated Frame and Leg Markets.The checkout percentage data in darts is publicly available and detailed. Players have documented percentages for finishing from...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Super Bowl As a Betting Phenomenon - A Nation That Bets Once a Year on One Game.The Super Bowl betting phenomenon from outside the American cultural context. The scale: genuinely extraordinary. Twenty billion...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Match Fixing - How Real Is the Threat in the Markets You Actually Bet On?.The competitive adaptation point Prof makes is the significant one for bettors. The Sportradar system. The IBIA alerts. The federation...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Injury News - How Do You Actually Use It Before the Market Already Has?.Prof's observation applies to the Bundesliga with specific force. The data infrastructure has improved dramatically. Every practitioner...