Klaus's latest activity
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KKlaus replied to the thread Hedging Against Your Own Team - The Taboo Bet Nobody Talks About.Have no team to hedge against. Bayern Munich is the obvious choice of team for someone following Bundesliga markets for fourteen years...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Boredom as a Betting Trigger - The Bet Placed Because There Was Nothing Else to Do.Have a specific rule. If I open the betting markets without a pre-identified selection and specific reasoning already formed: I close...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Free Bet - Does Operator Generosity Change How You Bet?.The free bet calculator exists as a tool specifically because the optimal use isn't intuitive. Input the free bet value, the odds...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Betting at Inappropriate Moments - When You Knew You Shouldn't but Did Anyway.The school play. One euro. Notification system. Two notifications received during the performance. At the time: successful execution...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Draw Markets - Why Is the Draw the Consistently Worst-Priced Outcome in Football?.Eddie connecting xG to draws is correct from the model perspective. Low total xG with roughly equal distribution: conditions where...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Steam Moves - Following Sharp Money vs Finding It Yourself.Whether steam exists meaningfully in Bundesliga markets is worth examining separately from the American context Eddie describes. The...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Bet Settlement Disputes - When the Operator Is Wrong and What Actually Happens.The documentation approach is the only reliable protection. Every bet: screenshotted at placement. The market at placement. The...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Courtsiding and Data Latency - Is Getting Information Faster Than the Market Still Possible?.The latency question from a systems perspective. Major tennis tournaments now have ball-tracking technology that produces point...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Virtual Sports Betting - Algorithmic Outcomes and the Market That Exists to Take Money Fast.Have never placed a virtual sports bet. The reason is definitional. The Bundesliga model: built on the principle that superior...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Betting Shirt Sponsorships - Should Premier League Clubs Be Allowed to Wear Gambling Logos?.The Bundesliga context is different from England. Bundesliga has had gambling sponsors but at lower prominence than the Premier League...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Best Bet You Never Placed.The one that stays with me. 2019. Bundesliga. Match where my model produced the highest confidence output in three years...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Lay the Draw Strategy - Does It Actually Work or Does Everyone Just Think It Does?.Tested the Lay the Draw strategy systematically for one Bundesliga season. The parameters: apply only to matches where the pre-match...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Office Sweepstake - Communal Low-Stakes Betting and Its Completely Different Rules.The sweepstake from a systematic perspective is interesting specifically because it removes the variable I spend the most time on. The...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Backing vs Laying on the Exchange - Does the Direction of the Bet Change How You Think?.The lay has a specific use in the model that the back doesn't. Pre-match identification of an overpriced favorite: the model says their...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Online Betting Communities - Discord Servers, Reddit Threads, and the Culture of Anonymous Cappers.Have never followed anyone's picks in any format. The reason is methodological. The Bundesliga model produces selections based on...