Klaus's latest activity
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Night Before a Big Bet - What Happens in the Hours Between Placing and Knowing.The cash out at reduced expected value during the overnight holding period. Have done this once. A position I'd placed with high model...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Partner Who Found Out - The Conversation Nobody Was Ready For.Petra found out the full extent not through a single conversation but through the stop number conversation I've referenced before...
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KKlaus replied to the thread When the Money Stopped Being Money - The Abstraction Nobody Warns You About.Fade identifying the analytical abstraction as distinct from the emotional abstraction. Both produce the same effect: the money...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What Do You Look at First When Making a Football Prediction?.The list you’ve provided is a reasonable starting point. Most of what’s there is standard. The question is how you weight and combine...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Night Before a Big Bet - What Happens in the Hours Between Placing and Knowing.The specific protocol I use to address the night-before problem is worth describing precisely. Pre-commitment of reasoning: when a bet...
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KKlaus replied to the thread When the Money Stopped Being Money - The Abstraction Nobody Warns You About.The specific mechanism in my case is the model. The model takes inputs and produces outputs. The outputs are probability estimates and...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Do You Gamble Differently When You're Drunk? The Question Everyone Knows the Answer To.The physical separation in my case was never consciously designed. It was a consequence of my betting process requiring a specific...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Do You Lie to Yourself About Your Losses Before You Lie to Anyone Else?.The reluctance to post the result after committing to the analysis. That reluctance, if it arrives, will itself be information.
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KKlaus replied to the thread Do You Gamble Differently When You're Drunk? The Question Everyone Knows the Answer To.The Bundesliga model has a specific protection built in that I implemented for reasons that were originally about process quality and...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Do You Lie to Yourself About Your Losses Before You Lie to Anyone Else?.The rolling window self-deception Conor describes is the most fundamental form because it operates on the accounting itself rather than...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What Do You Miss About Being a Fan Who Didn't Bet? The Before-Version of Watching Sport.Oli's point about the gain becoming invisible through familiarity. The analytical capability I've developed: so integrated into how I...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Promoted and Relegated Club - Market Inefficiency at the Boundary Between Divisions?.Oli's distinction between theory and method is the correct endpoint. The promoted club inefficiency: theoretically identified across...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Bet That Felt Like Prayer - When You Weren't Betting the Match at All.Have placed one bet that belongs in this thread. Not during a crisis. During a period of significant professional uncertainty. A...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Do You Lie to Yourself About Your Losses Before You Lie to Anyone Else?.The model provides a specific form of self-deception that manual record-keeping doesn't. When a model-generated selection loses: the...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What Do You Miss About Being a Fan Who Didn't Bet? The Before-Version of Watching Sport.Have tried to locate the before-version for this thread. The challenge: I've been systematically engaged with football for fourteen...