Recent content by FadeThePublic

Fair enough on the entertainment angle. I'm not here to tell people how to spend their money. But here's what I WILL say: if you track your bets (which you should), split them into two categories: Bets placed on games you plan to watch Bets placed on games you won't watch Track these...

The other problem with overanalysis is you start finding "information" that isn't actually meaningful. Like Eddie said he checked the refs. Okay but unless you have 5+ years of data on specific ref tendencies by team and matchup, what does that actually tell you? You're just adding noise. Same...

Eddie is 100% right and here's proof: go look at Twitter during any primetime game. You'll see thousands of "live bet" posts from people reacting to what just happened. "Just hammered Team A live after that turnover!" or "Team B live ML is FREE MONEY after that touchdown!" Those posts? The...

Princess just described exactly what the sportsbooks want you to do😅. Bet emotionally while watching. They love it. Here's what's really happening: when you watch a game, you're exposed to constant in-game variance that FEELS significant but statistically isn't. Three straight incompletions...

Eddie admitting he overthought something is like seeing a unicorn lmao But yeah man this happens to me all the time, just from a different angle. I'll identify a good contrarian spot - public's hammering one side, line's moving the other way, sharp money is clear. Should be an easy bet. Then I...

Chasing losses is literally what keeps Vegas in business. You know what the house WANTS you to do when you're down? Make bigger, dumber bets to try to get even. They've designed everything—the app interface, the "cash out" buttons, the live betting options—to facilitate this. Here's the brutal...

One more thing I want to add. Sometimes what looks like a superstition is actually your subconscious picking up on a real pattern. If you notice you make better bets during the week than on weekends, that's not superstition, that's data. Maybe you're more focused during the week, or maybe...

I don't have superstitions about betting but I'll admit I have patterns that might look superstitious to an outside observer. Like I almost always bet on weekday mornings, rarely on weekends. That's not superstition though, it's because I'm more rational and less emotional during the week when...

Let me tell you what actually happened last night, Princess. You got lucky on a 4-leg parlay (congrats, genuinely), then the sportsbook kept sending you notifications about the late games. Maybe you got a "boost" notification, or you saw a "popular parlay" suggestion, or the app showed you that...

Tony makes an excellent point about accountability. That's one reason I'm open with my girlfriend even though I'm private with most other people. She knows enough to notice if my betting behavior changed in concerning ways. I'll also add that being part of this forum provides a different kind of...

I'm pretty private about betting and I've found that's the best approach for me. My girlfriend knows I bet and knows approximately how much time I spend on it, but she doesn't know the details of my bankroll or my bets. She's fine with it as long as it's not causing financial problems, which it...

Eddie's point about making a conscious choice is crucial. I didn't consciously choose to drink and bet, it just sort of happened gradually. Beer while watching football seemed normal and harmless. Adding betting to that seemed natural. I never sat down and thought through the implications. It...

Tony's approach of having strict rules about betting while drinking is interesting and probably works for someone with his level of discipline. But I think for most people, trying to have a couple beers and maintain discipline about betting is like trying to diet while sitting in a bakery. The...

I like Princess's plan and I like Tony's addition of the detailed note taking. That will help her learn regardless of the outcome. One more piece of advice Princess. Since you're testing whether you can be profitable without additional deposits, this is a perfect time to implement all the stuff...

I'm going to start this potentially controversial thread because I think it's something a lot of us deal with but don't talk about openly. How does alcohol affect your betting decisions and have you tracked whether you make better or worse bets when you've been drinking? I'll be honest about my...