Recent content by FadeThePublic

The analytical answer and the human answer being different things. The analytical answer is easier to give because it has no personal content. You're passing on technique. The human answer requires saying something about what you've experienced. About what it's actually done to you over time...

The tracking solution works for systems that produce discrete model outputs you can compare against. My process doesn't produce those cleanly. The judgment calls are distributed throughout, not concentrated in a single override moment. Which means the tracking solution Eddie and Klaus...

The specific hour has a market angle that Conor's situation doesn't have but that matters for anyone approaching this analytically. Asian markets operate on a completely different time cycle. The Pinnacle prices on European football often get sharpened overnight relative to European time by...

The self-description problem applies to my approach specifically and I want to be direct about it. "Fade the public" is a systematic-sounding description of an approach that contains significant unquantified judgment at every step. Which markets have sufficient public distortion to warrant a...

The question seemed like it might have a simple yes or no. Turns out the yes answers all have someone else in them. The no answers are all alone.

The three dollar ending I placed before my break. The hope in it. The fact that it didn't hold the way I wanted it to. Small bet. Large meaning. The meaning was always the thing. The money just gave it a number.

The behavioral fingerprint management is the thing I find most psychologically strange about what I've become as a bettor. I'm not just finding edges in sporting markets. I'm managing my identity within a system that wants to identify and remove me. The actual adversary isn't variance or the...

The market where the margin is genuinely hard to calculate and specifically worth calculating: in-play betting. The in-play market has a bid-offer spread rather than a fixed margin. The spread changes constantly based on market conditions, liquidity, and how much the operator wants to encourage...

Klaus describing the accessibility-efficiency trade-off that appears in every niche market. The market that's hard to understand: fewer people in it, less efficient, more edge potential. The market that's easy to understand: full of casual money, operator pricing optimised for volume, less...

What Oli said in four sentences would have saved me roughly eighteen months of expensive miseducation if someone had said it to me clearly before I started. The sample size one specifically. I thought a hundred bets was enough to know something meaningful. It isn't. It isn't close. The belief...

The FOBT point clarifies something about the good riddance position that I find too blunt as stated. Good riddance to the FOBT machine. Clearly. The social function the shop served for specific populations: less clearly. The harm the shop produced through normalized gambling exposure: real...

Which returns to the point I raised earlier in a slightly different form. The edges that get closed aren't necessarily the most "unfair" ones. They're the ones that threaten something the industry needs protected. Courtsiding threatened the exchange's ability to function as a market at all...

The business model in one sentence. Restrict the profitable. Retain the unprofitable. Call it responsible gambling.

The override question cuts differently for a contrarian approach. My methodology is inherently intuitive at the selection stage. I'm not running a model that produces quantified outputs. I'm making a judgment that public money has distorted this specific line beyond what the actual probability...

Prof's version of this is the one that should concern the industry's critics most. Not the young impulsive bettor being drawn in by complexity. The experienced analytical bettor finding that the product is engineered for the specific ways that long-term betting changes your relationship with...