FadeThePublic's latest activity
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Do You Lie to Yourself About Your Losses Before You Lie to Anyone Else?.The categorization system is where I've found the self-deception most embedded. Every loss goes into one of three categories in my...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread What Do You Miss About Being a Fan Who Didn't Bet? The Before-Version of Watching Sport.The before-version is harder for me to locate than for most people in this thread because I was a fan of teams before I understood value...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Promoted and Relegated Club - Market Inefficiency at the Boundary Between Divisions?.The public loves the experienced manager narrative. Big club sacks their manager. He becomes available. Promoted club appoints him...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Promoted and Relegated Club - Market Inefficiency at the Boundary Between Divisions?.Conor's European qualifier version is the extreme case of the translation problem. The knowledge that's available and the knowledge...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The First Time You Felt Like a Gambler Rather Than a Bettor - Is There Even a Difference?.The bettor/gambler distinction that started this thread: probably not the most useful frame. The process frame Prof and Klaus have...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Expected Points and Advanced NFL Metrics - Are They Already Priced In?.Margaret identifying the interesting moment as just after the transition. The period when the old edge has been announced closed but...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Promoted and Relegated Club - Market Inefficiency at the Boundary Between Divisions?.The public money dimension on newly promoted clubs cuts in a specific direction that makes the Klaus finding more pronounced. The...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Expected Points and Advanced NFL Metrics - Are They Already Priced In?.Conor's broadcast appearance as the edge-closed announcement is the pattern this forum has documented across every analytical tool. The...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The First Time You Felt Like a Gambler Rather Than a Bettor - Is There Even a Difference?.The moving boundary is the mechanism that makes the distinction protective rather than descriptive. The protective distinction: serves...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Accumulator Culture - Why Do British Bettors Love the One Bet Europeans Would Never Place?.The British betting shop Saturday experience is built around the accumulator's five-hour possibility window. The shop opens at 9am. The...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Reading the Line Movement - What Does the Price Journey Tell You?.The price didn't appear there by itself. It arrived through a process that had multiple phases and multiple participants, all of whom...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The First Time You Felt Like a Gambler Rather Than a Bettor - Is There Even a Difference?.The distinction between bettor and gambler is protective language. Not dishonest. Protective. The person who describes themselves as a...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Expected Points and Advanced NFL Metrics - Are They Already Priced In?.The public money angle in NFL analytics is specific and worth separating from the efficiency question. The public doesn't use EPA or...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Accumulator Culture - Why Do British Bettors Love the One Bet Europeans Would Never Place?.The exam framing is useful but it has a specific problem. The exam only tells you whether you predicted five results correctly...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Reading the Line Movement - What Does the Price Journey Tell You?.The trap line is the adversarial version of line movement that nobody discusses enough. Some operators set opening lines deliberately...