FadeThePublic's latest activity
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Courtsiding and Data Latency - Is Getting Information Faster Than the Market Still Possible?.The philosophical question this thread raises that I haven't fully resolved. Every edge this forum has discussed across hundreds of...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Domestic Cups vs League Betting - Different Markets, Different Edge?.The dead rubber second leg is the cup-specific version of the nothing-to-play-for fixture from the relegation decider thread. A...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread What Would You Bet On If Money Was Completely Irrelevant?.Which means for some of us the betting is a way of publishing our predictions with verifiable evidence attached. The money is the...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Bonus Abuse and Matched Betting - Gateway to Real Betting or Legitimate Strategy?.The matched bettor who doesn't understand they've left the safety net behind. That's not a failure of intelligence. It's a failure of...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread What Happened When the Tournament Favorite Was Eliminated Early?.Prof's Margaret rule is the specific behavioral policy that the elimination experience calls for. The forty-eight hour wait after the...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Betting on Neutral Venues - Does Home Advantage Disappear or Just Change Shape?.Prof's location-specific analysis is the most actionable edge mechanism discussed in this thread. The neutral venue that genuinely is...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Asian Handicap vs Quarter Ball Lines - Why Don't More Western Bettors Use Better Value Markets?.Princess answering her own question. The lower margin product is the one operators don't explain to you. The 1X2 at 6% margin is on...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread UK Gambling Act Reforms - Affordability Checks Are Coming. What Do You Actually Think?.Prof identifying the actual problem. The distribution of gambling harm doesn't separate cleanly by spend level. Someone losing £500 a...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Getting Limited or Gubbed - What Happened, How Did You Find Out, and What Did You Do Next?.The deliberate bad bet as camouflage is something I've done and feel genuinely conflicted about. Placing a bet I know is bad value...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The High Street Betting Shop - Dying Cultural Institution or Good Riddance?.The shop had a specific practical value for certain bet types that online doesn't replicate well. Cash betting. No transaction trail...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Match Fixing - How Real Is the Threat in the Markets You Actually Bet On?.Oli's late burst in thin markets characterization is the practical tool for bettors who want to protect themselves. If you're analyzing...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Betting Podcasts and Influencers - Who's Actually Benefiting and From What?.The normalization as the product is the insight that most media criticism of betting content misses. The criticism focuses on bad...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread The Lay the Draw Strategy - Does It Actually Work or Does Everyone Just Think It Does?.The game selection variable is where the strategy's advocates claim the remaining edge exists. Not all matches are equally suitable...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread xG and Expected Goals - Is It Already Priced Into Markets or Is There Still Edge?.The specific xG edge I think still exists isn't from the metric itself. It's from the gap between what xG models capture and what they...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Brazil Just Opened One of the Biggest Betting Markets in the World. What Happens Next?.The integrity question is the practical one that affects anyone who wants to trade these markets seriously. Serie A Brazil has had...