FadeThePublic's latest activity
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FFadeThePublic posted the thread The Competitive Element - Are You Betting Against the Market or Against Other Bettors? in General Gambling Forum.My entire methodology is built on a specific answer to this question. I fade the public. The public is other bettors. The market price...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Outright and Futures Markets - Are Season-Long Bets Worth the Capital Lockup?.Favorites in outright markets are the most systematically overpriced position in sports betting. The mechanism: public bettors back the...
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FFadeThePublic posted the thread Referee and Card Markets - The Betting Category Where Anyone Could Have Edge in General Gambling Forum.The claim in the thread title is stronger than anything I'd usually say. But I'll defend it. Referee markets are the category most...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Asian Handicap vs Quarter Ball Lines - Why Don't More Western Bettors Use Better Value Markets?.Use AH markets for any match where I'm taking a side and the margin difference is significant. The question I ask before every football...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Tennis Betting - The Most Individual Sport and the Market Nobody Has Fully Cracked.Grand Slam markets have a specific public money problem. The casual fan who bets tennis bets one of three types. The favorite in every...
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FFadeThePublic posted the thread Correct Score Markets - The Highest Variance Football Bet and Is There Any Edge? in General Gambling Forum.The 2-1 home win. It's the most backed correct score in almost every Premier League match. The public's default correct score selection...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Betting Shirt Sponsorships - Should Premier League Clubs Be Allowed to Wear Gambling Logos?.The Premier League voluntary ban is real but also quite limited. Front-of-shirt gambling sponsors banned from 2026-27. Sleeve...
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FFadeThePublic posted the thread The Derby Match - Does It Bet Completely Differently From a Regular Fixture? in General Gambling Forum.The public money pattern in derby matches is one of the most consistent I've tracked. The larger club in any local rivalry...
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FFadeThePublic posted the thread Draw Markets - Why Is the Draw the Consistently Worst-Priced Outcome in Football? in General Gambling Forum.The draw is the public's least favorite outcome and the bookmaker's most profitable market position. Not a coincidence. Public betting...
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FFadeThePublic posted the thread The Tipster Industry - How Do You Actually Verify a Claimed Track Record? in General Gambling Forum.Going to be direct about where I stand before asking the question. I don't follow tipsters. Never have. The entire premise contradicts...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Match Fixing - How Real Is the Threat in the Markets You Actually Bet On?.The suspicious line movement thread covered some of this. The distinction I've developed: line movement driven by sharp information I...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Staking Plans - Kelly Criterion, Flat Betting, Percentage Staking. What Do You Use and Why?.Used flat betting for twelve years. Recently moved to a mild percentage staking approach. The argument for flat betting that I held for...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Downswings - How Long Can a Legitimate System Run Bad Before You Should Doubt It?.Three significant downswings in fifteen years. Each one I was convinced I'd lost the edge. Each one eventually resolved as variance...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread Closing Line Value - Is It Actually the Right Benchmark for Measuring Edge?.The closing line has a specific problem for my approach that I've thought about for years. The books shade lines toward public money...
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FFadeThePublic replied to the thread What Did You Give Up To Get Good At This?.Social flexibility. Being good at this requires information that doesn't respect social schedules. Line movement at 11pm Saturday...