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This guide is for bettors who want to understand how forecast bets work in UK horse racing, the difference between straight and reverse forecasts, how payouts are calculated, and when forecast betting makes sense versus simpler options.
Forecast betting is UK terminology for what other regions call exacta and quinella betting. The mechanics are identical but the names differ, which confuses bettors who bet internationally. A straight forecast is an exacta. A reverse forecast is a quinella. Same bets, different labels depending where you're betting.
Straight Forecast - Exact Order Required
A straight forecast (also called computer straight forecast or CSF) is betting on which horses finish first and second in that exact order. You pick Horse A for first place and Horse B for second place. If they finish 1-2 in that sequence, you win. If they finish 2-1, you lose even though you correctly identified the top two horses.
The payout comes from either fixed odds or the computer straight forecast dividend, depending on the bookmaker. CSF dividends are calculated by an industry-standard formula based on win and place pools, not determined by individual bookmakers. This means CSF payouts are consistent across bookmakers - you get the same dividend regardless of where you placed the bet.
Example: You bet £5 on Horse A-Horse B straight forecast. The CSF dividend for that combination is £42.50 per £1 stake. Your return is £5 × 42.50 = £212.50.
Straight forecasts are difficult because you need precision. In a 10-horse race, there are 90 possible straight forecast combinations. You're picking one outcome from 90 possibilities. The probability of randomly guessing correctly is roughly 1%, though obviously some combinations are more likely than others based on horse quality.
The exact order requirement is what separates winners from losers. You can watch a race, correctly call that Horse A and Horse B are the top two, and still lose your forecast bet if they finish in the wrong order. That happens more often than beginners expect because races are unpredictable and a nose margin at the line determines whether you win or lose.
Straight forecasts pay significantly more than win bets on the favorite. Backing a 2/1 favorite to win returns £2 profit per £1. A straight forecast with that favorite on top and a 6/1 shot in second might pay £15-25 depending on the exact combination. You're getting substantially better odds by adding the second selection, but you're also adding substantial difficulty.
Reverse Forecast - Either Order Wins
A reverse forecast is two straight forecasts combined - Horse A-Horse B and Horse B-Horse A. You're betting both combinations, which means either horse can finish first as long as both occupy the top two positions. Your stake doubles because you're placing two bets.
If you bet £5 reverse forecast on Horse A and Horse B, you're actually betting £10 total (£5 on A-B, £5 on B-A). If they finish 1-2 in either order, one of your bets wins and the other loses. You get paid on the winning combination at the CSF dividend for that order.
Example: £5 reverse forecast (£10 total stake). Horse A wins, Horse B second. The A-B straight forecast dividend is £32.50. You win £162.50 on that combination (£5 × 32.50). The B-A bet loses. Net return is £162.50 on £10 staked, so £152.50 profit.
Reverse forecasts make sense when you're confident about which two horses are best but uncertain about which one wins. Maybe you think the race is between two horses who are closely matched and the race could go either way. Reverse forecast covers both scenarios without having to guess the exact finishing order.
The cost is you're paying double stake for that insurance. If you're betting £10 on a straight forecast, you could instead bet £5 reverse forecast for the same total stake. The question is whether covering both orders at half stake each is better value than picking one order at full stake.
The math depends on your confidence about finishing order. If you think Horse A beats Horse B 70% of the time, a straight forecast on A-B is better value than reverse. If you think it's closer to 50/50, reverse forecast makes more sense because you're not guessing blindly.
How Computer Straight Forecast Dividends Work
CSF dividends are calculated using a formula based on the win odds and place odds from betting pools. The formula is standardized across UK racing, so every bookmaker pays the same CSF dividend for each combination. This is different from tote pool betting where dividends vary based on how much was bet.
The CSF dividend gets announced after the race once the win and place pools settle. You don't know the exact payout when you place the bet, only that it'll be calculated fairly using the industry formula.
Rough rule of thumb: the CSF dividend for two horses is approximately the win odds of the winner multiplied by the place odds of the second horse, with adjustments for favoritism and field size. A 4/1 winner with a 6/1 horse second might pay £25-35 per £1 stake, but the exact figure depends on the calculation.
CSF dividends reflect popularity of the combination. If two favorites finish 1-2, the CSF dividend is relatively small because that's what most people expected. If two outsiders finish 1-2, the CSF dividend is large because few people backed that combination.
Some bookmakers offer fixed-odds forecasts as an alternative to CSF. You see the exact odds when you place the bet and that's what you get paid. Fixed odds remove uncertainty but bookmakers price them with margin, so you might get worse value than CSF on unpopular combinations. For popular combinations, fixed odds might actually be better.
Combination Forecasts - Covering More Horses
A combination forecast lets you select three or more horses and covers all possible straight forecast combinations between them. If you select three horses (A, B, C), you're betting six straight forecast combinations: A-B, A-C, B-A, B-C, C-A, C-B.
Your stake multiplies by the number of combinations. £5 combination forecast with three horses costs £30 total (six combinations at £5 each). Four horses creates 12 combinations and costs £60. Five horses creates 20 combinations and costs £100.
Combination forecasts work when you're confident several horses will dominate but you're not sure which two or in what order. In a weak field where three horses are clearly superior, a combination forecast covers all scenarios where any two of them finish 1-2.
The downside is the stake explodes quickly and your return needs to cover all the losing combinations. If you bet six combinations at £5 each (£30 total) and one wins, you've spent £30 to win whatever that CSF dividend pays. If the dividend is £40, you've made £170 profit on £30 stake, which is solid. If the dividend is only £20, you've made £70 profit, which is marginal.
Most bettors should avoid combination forecasts unless they have very strong conviction about multiple horses. The stake cost usually outweighs the value unless you're betting small amounts like £1 per combination just for entertainment.
When Forecast Betting Makes Sense
Forecast bets work in competitive fields where the outcome is uncertain but you have opinions about which horses are likely to dominate. A 12-horse handicap where four or five horses are priced between 4/1 and 8/1 creates good forecast opportunities because no single horse is overwhelmingly favored.
They make less sense in races with dominant favorites. If one horse is 1/2 and expected to win easily, the straight forecast combinations involving that favorite will pay poorly because everyone's backing them. You're betting on a likely outcome that's already overbet, which means the CSF dividend will be terrible.
Straight forecasts make sense when you have strong conviction about finishing order. If you think Horse A's front-running style suits the pace scenario and Horse B will close late for second, that's a specific tactical read worth backing at full stake rather than hedging with reverse.
Reverse forecasts make sense when the top two are evenly matched and you can't confidently separate them. Two horses from the same stable, similar form, similar odds - reverse forecast at half stake each is cleaner than guessing which one edges it.
For recreational bettors, forecasts are entertainment bets on big races where you want involvement beyond just picking the winner. Throwing £2 on a forecast combination adds interest because you're watching for two horses, not just one. The returns can be substantial for small stakes if you hit an unpopular combination.
Sharp bettors rarely focus on forecasts because win betting offers more reliable edges and lower variance. The difficulty of predicting exact finishing order means even good handicappers hit forecasts maybe 5-10% of the time, which requires huge payouts to be profitable. Most prefer focusing on win bets where they can evaluate value more accurately.
Forecast Betting in Different Field Sizes
Small fields (5-7 horses) have fewer forecast combinations but lower payouts because outcomes are more predictable. A 6-horse race has 30 possible straight forecasts. Favorites dominate small fields, which means popular combinations pay less.
Medium fields (8-12 horses) offer the best forecast value. Enough runners to create unpredictability but not so many that the race becomes complete chaos. CSF dividends can be substantial when less obvious combinations hit.
Large fields (13+ horses) have massive numbers of possible combinations and high variance. A 16-horse handicap has 240 possible straight forecasts. Trifecta betting might be more interesting in large fields because forecast combinations still lean toward favorites and don't pay proportionally more despite the added difficulty.
Sprint races tend to have tighter finishes and more photo finishes, which means forecast results can come down to millimeters. Backing straight forecasts in sprints is higher variance than in longer races where quality usually separates by the finish.
Staying races over longer distances see more attrition and horses getting outpaced, which makes forecasts slightly more predictable if you understand stamina dynamics. Horses with proven stamina advantages tend to hold position better, giving you cleaner reads on likely top-two finishers.
Forecasts vs Tricasts
Tricasts (trifectas) add a third horse to the prediction - first, second, and third in exact order. They're substantially harder than forecasts because you're adding another variable. A straight forecast has 90 combinations in a 10-horse race. A tricast has 720 combinations.
Tricasts pay much more when they hit but the success rate is brutal. Even good handicappers hit tricasts maybe 1-3% of the time. You need huge dividends to make that worthwhile, which only happens when outsiders fill the places.
Most bettors should focus on forecasts over tricasts because the difficulty jump isn't worth the payout increase unless you're betting tiny stakes for entertainment. A £1 tricast that pays £200 is fun. A £10 tricast that pays £200 is poor value because you'll miss 95+ times for every hit.
Reverse tricasts exist but cost six times your unit stake (covering all six orders of three horses). The stake is prohibitive unless you're betting pennies. A £5 reverse tricast costs £30 and you need a massive dividend to profit after covering all losing combinations.
Common Forecast Betting Mistakes
Confusing straight and reverse forecasts and getting the stake wrong. Betting £10 thinking it's total stake when you actually placed a reverse forecast costing £20. Always check the bet slip confirms whether it's straight or reverse and what the total stake is.
Betting forecasts in small fields dominated by favorites. The CSF dividends in these races are terrible because everyone backs the obvious combinations. If the 1/2 favorite and 3/1 second favorite finish 1-2, the dividend might only be £8-12, which is poor value.
Not considering field size and competitiveness before betting forecasts. Random forecast bets without analyzing whether the field structure favors forecast betting are just guessing. You need multiple viable contenders and uncertainty about finishing order for forecasts to offer value.
Backing too many combination forecasts and exploding stake. Three horses in a combination forecast is six bets. Four horses is 12 bets. The stake adds up quickly and you can easily spend £50-100 covering combinations that don't offer value even when one hits.
Chasing huge forecast dividends by backing outsiders with no chance. A 25/1 shot with a 33/1 shot as a forecast looks tempting because it might pay £500+, but if neither horse has realistic top-two chances, you're burning money on lottery tickets. Forecasts should be informed selections, not random long-shot prayers.
Forecast Betting Strategy for Beginners
Start with reverse forecasts on two horses you genuinely believe are the best in the race. This removes the guessing about exact order while giving you exposure to forecast payouts. Bet small stakes like £2-5 until you understand how often you hit and what typical returns look like.
Focus on races with 8-12 runners where form is competitive. Avoid small fields with dominant favorites and avoid huge handicaps where anything can happen. The middle ground offers the best balance of predictability and payout.
Check the morning odds before deciding between straight and reverse. If your two selections are priced similarly (both 5/1, or 4/1 and 6/1), reverse makes sense. If one is significantly shorter (3/1 vs 8/1), you probably have a conviction about which wins, so straight forecast on your preferred order is cleaner.
Don't bet forecasts in every race. Treat them as occasional bets in races where you have strong opinions about the top two. Most races don't offer clear forecast value - you're better off just backing a winner and moving on.
Track your forecast results over 20-30 bets before increasing stakes. If you're hitting 8-10% and the average return covers your stakes comfortably, you might have an edge. If you're hitting 3-5% and barely breaking even, forecasts aren't working for you and you should focus on simpler bets.
FAQ
What's the difference between forecast and exacta?
No difference - they're the same bet with different names. UK racing calls it a forecast (straight or reverse). US and Australian racing calls it an exacta (straight or boxed). A straight forecast equals a straight exacta. A reverse forecast equals a boxed exacta with two horses. Same mechanics, different terminology.
Do I get better payouts with CSF or fixed-odds forecasts?
Depends on the combination. CSF usually pays better on unpopular combinations (two outsiders) because the dividend reflects the lack of money on that outcome. Fixed odds might pay better on popular combinations (favorite with second favorite) because bookmakers price them with standard margins. Compare both if available and take whichever offers better value for your specific selection.
Can I bet straight forecast and reverse forecast on the same two horses?
Yes, but there's no point. A reverse forecast already covers both orders (A-B and B-A) at equal stakes. Adding a straight forecast on top just increases your stake on one order disproportionately. If you want unequal stakes on different orders, bet them as separate straight forecasts with different stake amounts rather than mixing reverse and straight.
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