FadeThePublic
Market Sharp
- Joined
- Sep 7, 2024
- Messages
- 518
- Reaction score
- 11
- Points
- 18
My entire methodology is built on a specific answer to this question.
I fade the public. The public is other bettors. The market price is distorted by their collective behavior. I bet against the distortion.
My opponent isn't abstract. My opponent is the aggregate of every person who backed the popular side. The casual fan who bets their team. The media narrative follower who backs what was discussed on television this week.
I think about them specifically. Not as individuals. As a population with predictable biases.
When I win a fade bet: I've beaten the public. Not the bookmaker. The bookmaker took their money and mine and paid me from their losses.
The question worth examining: does thinking of other bettors as the opponent change how you analyze markets versus thinking of the market as an abstract entity you're trying to beat.
And for the people who frame it differently: do you think about opponents at all or is the market just a problem to solve with no human element.
I fade the public. The public is other bettors. The market price is distorted by their collective behavior. I bet against the distortion.
My opponent isn't abstract. My opponent is the aggregate of every person who backed the popular side. The casual fan who bets their team. The media narrative follower who backs what was discussed on television this week.
I think about them specifically. Not as individuals. As a population with predictable biases.
When I win a fade bet: I've beaten the public. Not the bookmaker. The bookmaker took their money and mine and paid me from their losses.
The question worth examining: does thinking of other bettors as the opponent change how you analyze markets versus thinking of the market as an abstract entity you're trying to beat.
And for the people who frame it differently: do you think about opponents at all or is the market just a problem to solve with no human element.
