Have you tried it? What size of sample do you have ?
ok guys i just worded it wrong. I apologize for my bad English. I don't want to sell this strategy, I just want to share it. Only when it helps you make a profit will you be able to thank me. It is not necessary to pay at all.
Therefore, strategies will arise in betting on yellow cards in live, namely after 70 minutes. If you look at a selection of matches, there will be
yellow cards after 70 minutes. It is risky to bet on the number of cards before the match, but it is also possible with the right approach. Why do I offer bets on yellow cards? In my opinion, these rates are somewhat underestimated by bookmakers.
1. Any person will get tired over time, and athletes and special football players are no exception. Physical conditions decrease with skin minute. Therefore, players may not be able to cover zones, especially after the substitution of fresh players, which also coincides with the given time.
2. Yellow cards are given not only for individual gross fouls, but also for the total number of fouls that can accumulate over time. In addition, it is not excluded that the referee shows a yellow problem for unsportsmanlike behavior or references to the referee.
3. An important role is played by the successful psychology of the player. For example: the opponent goes 2 for 2 at 35 minutes of the match and at 85. The probability of a foul increases significantly at 85 minutes, although there is little time left until the end of the match and the probability of receiving 2 yellow and, accordingly, red decreases, but does not exclude such a development that even better for us.
4. The odds on yellow are quite stable from 1.6 to 2.2 just after the start of the last 20 minutes.
So I hope you understand my train of thought.
Now for how to select matches.
1. Open any football statistics website and look at the average yellow cards per referee match. A good indicator is more than 4 cards per match.
2. We look at the last 6-7 matches of football clubs. According to my observations, face-to-face meetings are not an informative indicator. It is important to watch all 6-7 matches of the team in general, as well as individual statistics of the team at home and away.
Also, moderately count or again review the average number of fouls per 1 yellow problem. The norm for everyone from a different team. This clause is defined in selected matches. A good indicator is a minimum of 2 yellow cards for a match.
3. You need to watch the game online and observe the statistics. Fouls and interceptions or tackles are key. Compare the number of fouls and the number of yellow cards received in live with the indicators prepared earlier. the choice is obvious.
It is also important to observe the progress of the match. It's hard to get a yellow card when a team has more than 80 percent of the ball. The flow of the game is also important. For example, a favorite loses at home to an outsider, the probability of a yellow card for the favorite increases significantly.
4. I recommend betting only on a total of more than 0.5 or on a total of more than 1.5. I do not recommend anything more than 2.5, after that it is a risk. In addition, I consider it a risk to put fewer yellow cards on the total number, since I wrote earlier that yellow cards are given not only for fouls, but also for unsportsmanlike behavior or comments with the referee.
5. Matches of 1, 2 leagues of Italy, Spain, Belgium, Turkey, Portugal, and partially Germany are the best. I do not recommend betting on any matches in Great Britain at all, because referees often take high standards there.
6. Derbies are best suited, as well as matches where the teams are roughly equal or find on the same level in the standings. However, other matches can be considered.
My sample is small for two reasons.
1. This is my hobby, my main job takes a lot of time, so I can't watch all the matches.
2. I started trying this very strategy in the world championship period, when there was almost no club football.
Before cooking, we will analyze several matches
1. Cagliari Cosenza.
Cagliari receives at least 1 yellow card per match. At the end of the first half of the meeting, they have 7 fouls and 4 tackles. This is a good result in 45 minutes. They had more possession and scored 16 shots on goal, and did not score a single goal. Before the match, I determined the approximate average number of fouls on October 1, hard. It was about 8.
Cagliari already committed 7 fouls in the first half, and 2 more fouls before the yellow card in the 69th minute.
2. Annecy Saint Etienne.
St. Etienne is in the last place in the table and plays 0:1 after 1 half away, earning a yellow problem already in the 8th minute with 1 foul. After 1 half, St. Etienne earned 7 fouls and made 5 tackles. His average statistics are about 7.5 fouls per yellow problem.
In the 2nd half, St. Etienne continued to foul and conceded 2 goals. But at the time of receiving the yellow card on 85 they had 5 fouls in the second half.
3. Charleroi - Anderlecht.
Level teams approximately and find next to each other in the standings. Charleroi is not very productive away from home in terms of yellow cards regularly, but at home contains at least 2. After 1 half, they have 5 fouls and 9 tackles. I bet a total of more than 1.5 yellows on Charleroi, which they successfully earned even up to 70 minutes.
In fact, looking at the statistics of the university
in recent matches, nothing else suited this strategy, but maybe I missed a match.
Who is interested, I can write to you during my review and tell you my bets so that you can make sure of the profitability of this strategy.
I advise you to try at least 10 matches on a piece of paper first and see what you can do.
If it is not clear and you want to clarify something, I am always open to communication. Maybe someone will have some objections or suggestions for improvement, I would like to hear everyone.
