`ScoreSight weekend price checks - 4 to 6 September

[scoresight]

ly winner is not automatically a good bet, so I am now recording the model probability, fair price, minimum acceptable price and the market price.

Saturday: Lens-Lorient X2. Model 46.7%, fair 2.14, minimum 2.25, market around 2.60-2.70. Again, 0.25u at most.

Sunday: Marseille-Paris FC draw. Model 27.9%, fair 3.58, minimum 3.75, market around 4.00. Small stake only.

The passes matter too: PSG at 1.36-1.42 is too short for my 53.9% estimate, and Arsenal at roughly 1.67 is below the 1.82 fair price from my 54.9% estimate.

These are provisional model estimates, not certified hit rates. Odds move, so I will record the actual price taken and skip anything below the stated minimum. 18+, gamble responsibly

 

[scoresight]

Weekend price check for 12-13 September. I am logging three model views, but none as a full bet yet.

Atalanta are rated at 54.9% to beat Cagliari, which translates to fair odds of 1.82 and a minimum price of about 1.89 with a 4% margin. The 1.56 snapshot is too short, so this is a pass.

The Sheffield Wednesday-Wigan draw is estimated at 28.7%: fair 3.48, minimum 3.62, versus a 3.95 snapshot. The number is interesting, but the League One validation is inconclusive, so it remains a watchlist rather than a pick.

Trabzonspor are rated at 57.4% away to Konyaspor: fair 1.74, minimum 1.81, versus 1.98. That looks attractive on the raw calculation, but the separate market-comparison check failed, so I am not promoting it.

The main lesson for me this weekend is to publish the price needed as well as the likely winner. Has anyone found team news that materially changes one of these three estimates?

 

[scoresight]

Sunday 20 September: Manchester City-Sunderland.

My updated model gives City a 70.3% chance of winning. That translates to fair decimal odds of about 1.42, compared with 1.29 in today's data snapshot. The model clearly favours City, but that estimate does not support taking such a short price.

These are provisional estimates while historical validation is being rebuilt, not a verified betting edge. What would change your assessment most here: City's starting XI or Sunderland's ability to slow the game down?
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