Progressive Carries as a Prop Market Input: The Ball-Carrying Metric That Prop Markets Haven't Found Yet

[Betting Forum]

Prop markets for individual players are priced from the statistics that are most visibly associated with contribution: goals, assists, shots on target, key passes. These are the output statistics - the end points of attacking sequences. The input statistics - the actions that build toward those outputs - are almost entirely absent from standard prop market modelling. Progressive carries are the clearest example of an input statistic that is reliably predictive of specific prop market outputs and is almost never incorporated into the lines that price those outputs.

A progressive carry is a ball carry that moves the ball at least ten metres toward the opponent's goal, or a carry that enters the penalty area. It's the specific type of dribbling action that creates genuine attacking threat - not a step-over in the middle of the pitch that goes nowhere, but the actual carry that advances the team's position and forces defensive repositioning. Players with high progressive carry rates per 90 minutes are specifically and measurably contributing to their team's attacking sequences in ways that translate into shot creation, crossing opportunities, and assist potential.

The market prices their assist and shot prop lines from positional averages and from their historical goals and assists record. It doesn't price from their carry volume and territory, which is the actual mechanism producing those outputs. The gap between the mechanism and the output in the market's modelling is where the prop value lives.

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What Progressive Carries Actually Measure​

The definition matters for the application. Progressive carries are not all dribbles and not all forward movement. The ten-metre threshold filters out the short carries that are routine ball control and selects for the carries that materially advance attacking positions. The penalty area entry threshold captures the highest-value carries regardless of distance - a three-metre carry into the box creates a different probability landscape than a twenty-metre carry into the midfield.

FBref carries progressive carry data for all players in major European leagues, updated after each matchday. The statistic is available as raw count per 90 minutes and as a rate per touch. Both versions are useful for different analytical purposes. The per 90 figure tells you how much carrying volume a player is producing. The per touch rate tells you whether the carrying volume reflects a high-activity player or a specifically carry-inclined player - a midfielder who touches the ball sixty times per game and carries progressively on fifteen of those touches is doing something different from one who touches forty times and carries on fifteen.

The positional distribution of progressive carry volume is specific and important for prop market applications. Fullbacks and attacking midfielders carry the highest progressive carry volumes among outfield players in most top-flight European systems, with central midfielders third depending on their role. Strikers typically have lower progressive carry rates because their positioning is end-product oriented rather than progression-oriented.

This positional distribution is exactly backward from how prop markets are typically constructed. Prop markets price strikers most actively - goals, shots, anytime scorer - while their carry profiles are least relevant. Prop markets price fullbacks and central midfielders least actively - their derivative props like crosses, assists, and shots from outside the area are the thin end of the prop market - while their carry profiles are most predictive of specific output metrics.

The Fullback Carry Profile and Crossing Props​

The attacking fullback whose progressive carry rate is significantly above the positional average has a specific and underused prop market implication for crossing volume and assist probability.

The mechanism is direct. A fullback who carries progressively into advanced positions arrives at the byline or the wide attacking area in possession, in a position to deliver a cross. The number of times a fullback reaches these positions per game is partly determined by their attacking freedom in the manager's system, but within any given system, the fullback who carries more aggressively into advanced territory crosses more frequently and creates more genuine crossing opportunities than the fullback who advances by passing through combinations.

The market for crossing-related props - crosses completed, crosses attempted, assists from crossing positions - is priced from the fullback's historical average of these statistics. A fullback who joined a new club in the summer and whose historical data is from a previous system where he was less encouraged to carry is underpriced in the crossing and assist props for his new system if his natural carry tendency is high. His carry rate in the new system will reflect his tendency rather than his history, and the output statistics that the prop market prices from will gradually catch up over the season - but in the first eight to twelve weeks, the prop market is pricing his historical output in a system that suppressed his carry tendency rather than his output in the current system that encourages it.

This is the January transfer window embedding article applied to prop markets. A fullback with a high carry tendency moving to a system that specifically exploits that tendency is underpriced in his crossing and assist props until the historical data base catches up with the current system's output. FBref's season-starting data gives you the carry rate in the new system from the first games of the season. The prop market is still pricing from the historical output data that predates the system change.

The specific prop market application: early-season assist odds and crosses-completed markets for high-carry-tendency fullbacks in new, carry-encouraging systems are consistently underpriced until the in-season data has accumulated enough for the market to incorporate it. This window is typically the first two to three months of the season for summer transfers, or the first six to eight weeks post-window for January transfers.

The Central Midfielder Carry Profile and Creative Output Props​

The central midfielder case is more complex than the fullback case because the relationship between carries and specific output metrics involves more intermediate steps. But the fundamental mispricing mechanism is the same - the market prices the output without modelling the carry mechanism that produces it.

A central midfielder with a high progressive carry rate per 90 is doing something specific: they're advancing the ball through the midfield line under pressure rather than passing backward or sideways, and they're arriving in advanced positions more frequently than a midfielder who achieves the same number of touches through purely positional play. This carry-into-advanced-position behaviour creates shot-creating action opportunities - the opportunities to deliver the final ball, receive the return pass in a shooting position, or force defensive errors in the area just outside the penalty box.

The specific output metrics that high progressive carry rates predict for central midfielders are: shot-creating actions per 90, key passes per 90, and xA (expected assists) per 90. These are all metrics that can feed into prop market assessment for creative midfielders. The market doesn't price from carry rates. It prices from historical shot-creating actions and key passes.

The mispricing scenario for central midfielders is most pronounced in two situations. The first is a midfielder whose role has changed - who was previously deployed as a defensive-minded player and is now being used in a more progressive role where carrying is encouraged. Their historical shot-creating action and key pass statistics reflect the previous role. Their current carry rate reflects the new role. The output metrics will converge toward what the carry rate predicts, but the prop market is still looking backward at the historical record.

The second situation is the midfielder in a system that specifically creates carrying opportunities through the press - a team that wins the ball high and gives their central midfielders space to carry into. In this system, any midfielder with the technical ability to carry confidently will produce elevated carry rates and corresponding creative output. A midfielder who moves to this type of system from a less press-intensive club sees an immediate increase in carry opportunities that the prop market prices slowly because it's updating from historical output rather than from carry rate in the new system.

The Age Curve Interaction​

Progressive carrying ability has a specific age curve that differs from other football performance metrics, and this age curve interaction creates a specific prop market mispricing pattern across a player's career.

Carrying volume and success rate tend to peak in the late twenties - roughly 26 to 29 for most players - and decline more gradually than sprint speed or explosive acceleration. This is because carrying proficiency is partly technique and decision-making rather than purely physical, and the technique component maintains itself longer than the physical components. A 32-year-old midfielder can still carry progressively at a high rate if their technique and decision-making are intact, even if their top-end speed has declined.

The market tends to reduce all attacking output expectations for players as they move through their early thirties, applying a generic age-related discount that reflects the overall performance decline curve. This generic discount doesn't adequately distinguish between output metrics that are primarily physical - sprint-dependent goals, through-ball reception into space - and output metrics that are primarily technical - progressive carries that rely on close control and decision-making.

A 31-year-old central midfielder whose carry rate per 90 has remained stable or even increased slightly as their positional intelligence has compensated for reduced physical output - they're making better decisions about when to carry rather than trying to carry as often as they did physically - is being discounted in prop markets that apply a generic age curve. Their shot-creating action and key pass output, driven by the still-elevated carry rate, is underpriced relative to where the age-adjusted model puts it.

The specific opportunity: carry rate persistence into the early thirties for technically excellent players creates a prop market underpricing that mirrors the generally underpriced creativity of experienced midfielders. Tracking carry rates alongside age for the high-carry midfielders in your target competitions identifies which players are maintaining their progressive carry volume against the age curve and whose prop markets are therefore applying more discount than the actual performance decline warrants.

The Carry Rate as an Injury Return Signal​

A specific and underused application of progressive carry data is as an injury return quality signal for players coming back from significant time out.

The standard assessment of a returning player uses minutes played and whether they're in the starting lineup as proxies for recovery. These are available metrics but they're insufficient signals of whether the player's physical and technical quality has returned to pre-injury level. A player who is fit enough to play forty-five minutes is not necessarily fit enough to carry progressively at their normal rate - the specific combination of confidence, physicality, and decision-making required for progressive carrying is often the last thing to return after significant injury rather than the first.

Progressive carry rate in the first three to five games back from a significant injury provides a specific signal about whether the player's recovery is complete or partial. A player whose carry rate in these games is significantly below their pre-injury baseline is showing - through this specific metric - that they haven't fully returned to their previous quality level even if they're physically on the pitch for the full ninety minutes.

The prop market pricing for this player - assists, shots, shot-creating actions - is set from their pre-injury historical output, which assumed full carry capacity. Their current carry rate is telling you the output rate will be lower than historical until the carry rate recovers. The prop market is pricing pre-injury output. The carry rate is showing post-injury output. The gap is the specific prop market adjustment that the carry rate signal implies.

This is a short-window signal - most players' carry rates recover within four to eight weeks of returning to regular first-team football, as confidence and physical sharpness both return. The window where the prop market is still pricing pre-injury output while the carry rate signals partial return is narrow but specific, and it concentrates in the first three to five games back for the specific player types - high-carry midfielders and fullbacks - for whom the carry rate matters most.

Building the Carry Rate Database​

The practical implementation requires a player-level carry rate database for the positions and competitions you're actively targeting. FBref makes this achievable from free data with a modest initial investment of time.

For each competition and position group that feeds into your prop market activity - typically Premier League and Championship midfielders and fullbacks, and whatever other competitions you cover specifically - pull the progressive carries per 90 data from FBref at the start of the season and update it every three to four weeks as the season progresses. The update frequency is lower than for some other databases in this series because carry rates are relatively stable over medium-term samples - a player who is a high-carry midfielder in October will typically remain one in February, absent a system change or significant injury.

The database tracks two versions of each player's carry rate: their career or multi-season average, which is the prior, and their current season rate, which is the evidence. The divergence between these two rates is the specific signal. A player whose current season rate significantly exceeds their career average is either in a new system that encourages more carrying, or is in a peak performance phase. A player whose current season rate significantly lags their career average is either in a system that suppresses carrying, returning from injury, or in a performance decline that the prop market output statistics haven't yet reflected.

The database also tracks the system context for each player - which manager, which tactical system, how much freedom the system gives to carrying in the relevant positions. This context is what distinguishes a carry rate change that's systemic from one that's individual-performance-driven. A fullback whose carry rate has increased because they moved to a system that deploys overlapping fullbacks is in a different situation from a fullback whose carry rate has increased because they're performing at a higher level in an unchanged system.

Cross-referencing the carry rate database against the current prop market offerings for the same players - when those offerings are available - identifies specific positions where the carry profile suggests output expectations above or below the market line. These are the specific prop opportunities the database is built to find.

The Opposition Context​

Progressive carry rates are not context-independent. They're affected by the specific opposition a player faces, in ways that create a fixture-specific adjustment to the general carry profile.

A high-carry midfielder facing a team with an aggressive high press faces a different carrying environment than the same midfielder facing a deep-block defensive team. The high press creates shorter carry windows and higher risk for progressive carries in the midfield transition zone - the defender closes faster, the space is compressed sooner. A midfielder who carries into advanced positions when given space will carry less progressively when denied that space by a pressing team.

The inverse: a high-carry fullback facing a compact defensive block whose wingers sit deep has more space ahead of them in the wide channels than when facing a team whose wingers actively press wide. The low-block team's defensive compactness creates space in the wide advanced areas that the high-carry fullback's natural movement exploits.

The carry rate adjustment for specific fixture contexts is the refinement that moves from a general carry profile assessment to a fixture-specific prop market prediction. A high-carry midfielder's shot-creating action props are worth modest downward adjustment for fixtures against high-press opponents. The same player's props against a deep-block team are worth upward adjustment. The market prices neither of these adjustments - it prices the historical average. The fixture-specific carry environment is additional context that improves prediction accuracy.

FAQ​

Q1: Is progressive carry data available for women's football leagues, and does the same prop market application hold in those competitions?
FBref carries progressive carry data for several major women's leagues - WSL, NWSL, and selected others - though the coverage is less complete than for men's football and the data depth is shallower due to shorter historical records. The fundamental mechanism is the same - progressive carry rates predict specific output metrics in women's football as they do in men's - but the prop market development for women's football is significantly behind the men's game. Where women's football props do exist, they're typically priced from even less sophisticated models than the men's game, which means the carry rate mispricing is potentially larger in magnitude. The practical limitation is availability of the prop markets rather than the applicability of the analysis - most operators offer limited individual player props for women's football, which constrains how much of this analysis can be translated into specific bets.

Q2: How do you distinguish between a player who has a high progressive carry rate because they're genuinely excellent at it versus one who has a high rate because their team is poorly constructed and they're forced to carry because combinations aren't available?
The distinction matters because the output implications are different. A player who carries progressively because no combination options are available is generating carries under duress rather than by design, and those carries are more likely to end in turnovers or low-quality shooting positions than carries made by a technically excellent player who carries deliberately. FBref's carry success rate - the proportion of carries that reach their intended destination without losing possession - separates these two cases to a degree. High carry volume combined with high success rate is genuine carry quality. High carry volume combined with average or below-average success rate is more likely systemic necessity than individual excellence. The output metric implications of forced carrying versus quality carrying differ specifically in xA and shot quality metrics - forced carries produce less threatening outcomes than quality carries, which should be reflected in a smaller output premium for the forced category.

Q3: Are there specific competitions or tactical eras where progressive carry data has less predictive value for prop market outputs, perhaps because the game style suppresses individual carrying entirely?
Yes. Extremely deep-block, low-possession teams in some competitions play a style that suppresses progressive carrying for all outfield players except the specific counter-attack triggers. In these systems, the midfielders and fullbacks have minimal opportunity for progressive carries because the team's designed shape keeps them in defensive positions until the transition moment. Carry rate data for players in these systems tells you less about their natural carry tendency and more about the system's constraints - a naturally high-carry midfielder in a deep-block system will show a low carry rate that doesn't reflect their output potential in a more progressive system. The practical implication: carry rate data from players in deep-block systems should be discounted as predictive of output metrics relative to data from more possession-based or transition-based systems, and a natural carry tendency assessment based on their performance before joining the current system is more relevant than their current rate for projecting their output in a changed system.