NBA 2015 - 2016 season picks

[paul8209]

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves – Portland Trailblazers

Recommendation: OVER 203

Odds: 1.925

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Rejuvenated Minny welcomes Portland in Traget Center tonight. I guess Wolves will get a close win and send their fans home happy with a stunning 3-0 start (well, they didn’t meet quite an opposition really). Anyway I much more like OVER here, it’s way ‘’surer’’ call in my humble opinion.

Minnesota showed decent game overall so far, bad opponents or not. They will hardly reach the play-offs of course, too weak defense, but at least offense is running and clicking under fresh Ricky Rubio distribution skills. Their Nr. 1 Draft pick, Karl-Anthony Towns, also showed a lot of promise with a fine display against Denver, shooting 11 from 19 for 28 points and adding 14 rebounds and 4 blocks to his tally!

Portland is a team in transition, I doubt anyone on the upper management levels or among the players believe they have what it takes to reach the play-offs this season, after dumping 4 starters from last year line-up. At least though Damian Lillard is the undisputed franchise player now and he seems delighted with his role on the rebuilding team. C.J. McCollum is a very nice compliment to Lillard in the backcourt too, this young fella definitely can score the ball and I envision bright future ahead of him too.

So what we have, 2 teams with clearly offensive mindsets (and personnel allowance) and total line of 203? Win or lose, I buy that, thank you very much, Vegas!

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[paul8209]

NBA Atlanta Hawks – Washington Wizards

Recommendation: OVER 203

Odds: 1.917

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Atlanta and Washington resume their rivalry in Southeast Division tonight. Hawks recorded a very nice 60-win regular season last year and saw Wizards out in 6 games during the Conference semifinals. It wasn’t as easy series for them as it sounds though, Washington kept most of the games close, especially the last ones. I very much suspect Hawks will continue their dominance over the opponent at home floor in Atlanta tonight but am much more interested in the total line bettingwise.

Hawks rediscovered their mojo after the disappointing loss against Detroit at home in the opener. They not only recorded 6 straight wins but really found their rhythm in offense, corresponding with the return of key sharpshooter Kyle Korver in play. They still has the usual problems in rebounding the ball of course, that couldn’t be addressed easily but it’s just their way to win games with very good shooting percentage, thus lowering the weight of the rebounding factor

Wizards will be highly motivated to dethrone Atlanta from the top of the division on their turn. As I’ve mentioned last time when speaking of them, everything’s about the strong backcourt here, Bradley Beal and John Wall. These guys like to run, penetrate and score, competing with whomever the opponents guard player is, and competing between themselves for the franchise player honors too (in a good manner for now) !

You probably know by now where I’m leading you, OVER is the recommendation here.

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[paul8209]

Los Angeles Clippers - Memphis Grizzlies

Recommendation: UNDER 199

Odds: 1.97

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket

Clippers and Memphis resume their hard-fought rivalry from the past 3-4 seasons tonight and I will be quite surprised if the game doesn’t have at least a pinch of play-off intensity and atmosphere in it, with the whole history between these 2 teams!

Clippers feel really sorry for themselves currently, after heavy close defeats against top rivals like Houston and GSW. Both games features some questionable situations and referee calls, gone mostly against Clipps, and Doc and his boys are angry at the world right now. So it will be fight for every ball from them but star point guard and floor general Chris Paul will likely miss the game again because of strained groin. His replacement is Doc’s son, the young Rivers, and he’s not up to the task really (albeit only a few players around the league could fill Paul’s boots in all honesty). So Clippers offense shouldn’t be so fluent tonight.

Memphis also has their share of problems, some of their performances were quite flat for a contending team. Rumours are flying in the air about possible Zach Randolph trade (he is questionable tonight btw) and the atmosphere in the team is not perfect according all reports. What can they do to turn it around? What else except relying to their trade mark, the grinding stuffing defense.

So we have two teams quite desperate for the win (or at least for a good stabile game to steady the ship), not really liking each other, to put it mildly. They’ve gone over this total line only 1 from 4 meetings last season and I strongly favour this trend to continue tonight.

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[paul8209]

NBA Philadelphia 76ers - Toronto Raptors

Recommendation: Raptors - 8

Odds: 1.854

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


The spread seems a bit steep here at first sight, moreover the game is at Wells Fargo, Philly. Sixers will be the most pathetic team in the league for another season though (yes, even Lakers are better

and this seems set in stone. Their coach Brett Brown still insist that his team can compete with anyone in the league (let’s take a minute and laugh at him) but when the talent and effort aren’t there, all is just wishful thinking. Sixers may welcome Nerlens Noel back in the squad tonight after injury but this doesn’t bother me too much, the guy is not showing any promise to fulfill his potential currently. Even the bright spot, rookie center Okafor, can’t help Philly too much. He records very nice stats for a rookie but this just doesn’t transfer directly in teams ratings.

Raptors suffered a setback after their shockingly good start to the season, or more like the reality hit them hard. It’s true though that Toronto’s last loss against Knicks was a bit harsh, coming after a very bad referee decision in the key possession (Carmelo Anthony was clearly out of bounds and it should have been Raptors ball). So Toronto will be angry mad and motivated on 100 % for victory, I just hope they escape some stupid backdoor cover. Carrol and Terence Ross are questionable again for tonight (both will likely miss the game in fact) but DeRozan and Kyle Lowry showed their old form against New York, so more of the same, please!

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[paul8209]

NBA New York Knicks - Cleveland Cavaliers

Recommendation: Cavaliers – 6

Odds: 1.862

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


From the school of blindingly obvious, I like Cavs here. They’re in form, 7 straight wins after the single loss in the opener and I’m sure Bron will give many and much to follow Steph Curry winning streak as long as he can. The game is in MSG but LBJ doesn’t usually pay attention to such details. He’s still the most dominant player in the game (definitely not the one with best skill set) and will surely try to impose his will on Carmelo, the rest of the Knicks team (pretty mediocre, excluding the rookie Porzingis), referees and even Spike Lee, the most famous Knicks fan

Kevin Love is making way stronger season so far, reminding the old Love from Minny. Quite surprisingly, Mo Williams is fitting very well in Kyrie’s boots, making assists and providing scoring when needed.

Knicks recorded 4 wins from 9 games but primarily against moderate opponents. They already lost by 10 points in Cleveland in the first game in the series and I doubt something could really change tonight. Carmelo is hit or miss, ok, but even if he scores 35 tonight, Knicks could still find a way to lose badly. Porzingis is great talent for the future of course, just not a deciding factor now. Jose Calderon has his best years left long beside him in his career and the returning from injury Arron Afflalo is rusty.

So this is it, LBJ having an OK night should get the job done here.

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[paul8209]

NBA Brooklyn Nets vs Atlanta Hawks

Recommendation: Hawks - 4

Odds: 1.862

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket

Surprise, surprise, I’m backing Atlanta here against Brooklyn. It’s more a play against miserable Nets of course than a super confidence in Atlanta after their last struggles. Brooklyn’s season is already over, even after only 10 games into the season. They’re 1-9 and if someone in the organization or among the fans still believes in something good for this season, he’s probably the biggest optimist in the world. It’s not about tanking of course, too early stage of the season but this will happen later on. Lack of motivation, skill and veteran age are more than enough troublemakers for Nets currently.

Atlanta will miss starting PG Jeff Teague but second string German teen Schroedder (remember that villain from Teenage Mutant Turtles, ha!) is a capable replacement, already showing great promise for his NBA career. Hawks will probably be outrebounded tonight, they’re around the bottom teams in the league in rebounding. I guess it will be the only category Nets could have an advantage. Moreover Nets make many silly turnovers and their offense is totally ineffective and inadequate at some points. Joe Johnson is way past the point where he was able to provide high class 1 to 1 isolation offensive production and Brook Lopez can’t do it all alone.

In a nutshell, Atlanta just need to have an average to good game and will win easily; they have full dominance in the series in recent years btw. Nets need quite a spectacular shooting night, in addition to Hawks bad one, to have a chance. The choice is clear.

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[paul8209]

NBA Memphis Grizzlies - Houston Rockets

Recommendation: OVER 201

Odds: 1.952

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Memphis are traditionally regarded as strong defensive grinding team. This won’t change overnight of course but I think their veteran players show more and more signs that age is starting to catch up with them. It goes for their core big men, Gasol and Zach Randolph. Yet Grizzlies will remain a very good team, even by West Conference standards, at least this season. They’ve found some offense lately indeed, stabilizing their season with 3 straight wins and scoring over 100 points in each of these games.

Houston fired Kevin McHale and I guess James Harden is finally happy, if judged by his body language and performance in last win over Portland. It was only an OT win and still much to be desired in terms of overall team attitude and gameplay. Rockets are decent team though with talent in all lines and I still presume they’ll get to the play-offs where inevitable miserable epic fail awaits them

What interests me more is tonight of course. Houston are among NBA most fast paced teams, they make many ball possessions and shot attempts (shot selection and percentage is totally other topic). I feel they will find enough shooting touch to keep this game close tonight, or vice versa, Memphis will strive to keep it close if Harden gets in rhythm and draw many fouls in penetration to the rim. All 4 meetings between them passed tonight’s total line last season, so I really can’t see any reason not to try it again.

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[paul8209]

NBA Milwaukee Bucks - Detroit Pistons

Recommendation: Bucks ML

Odds: 2.27

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Milwaukee so big underdog at home against Detroit just doesn’t feel right. It’s true Bucks are not playing well lately but they lost 3 road games where it was ‘’supposed’’ to lose – against Washington, Cleveland and Indiana. Before these 3 losses, they actually defeated Cavaliers here. Jason Kidd was a player I really admired and a coach to watch for the future. I’m sure he’ll make the needed defensive adjustments so his team return back to winning ways. Center Greg Monroe will be extra motivated for sure against his former team. The management decided to put the franchise in the hands of the younger Andre Drummond and he has bigger potential than Greg indeed, yet Monroe is not a big man to be easily dismissed.

Detroit have lost their momentum from early season on the road, 1-5 in their last 6 trips. Playing against the Bucks has proved to be a hard task for Detroit last season when they went only 1-3, so it should be at least 50-50 game tonight.

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[paul8209]

NBA Indiana Pacers - Chicago Bulls

Recommendation: UNDER 198

Odds: 1.934

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket

The oddsmakers continue to give a bit higher line for the total in this match-up and I will continue backing it. My Pacers are real hot right now and maybe this is the reason for this line but…. It’s one thing to play against weak defensive teams like Wizards and Bucks (right now Bucks are terrible in defense, not in principle), and completely different story to play against stifling defense like Bulls’ one. Indiana are red-hot from beyond the arc but Chicago guards should be able to limit Pacers a bit in this area or at least slow down Pacers offensive rhythm.

Bulls conclude their road trip tonight and tiredness would be a factor too. They did well, 2-1 in this trip with the expected loss against GSW. They struggle to create easy scoring opportunities though, even with Derrick Rose on the floor. It was totally evident against Portland, they led comfortably with 10+ points at some stage in the beginning of the 4th Q and then started choking quite badly. Shot clock violations, slow tempo attacks, desperate shots, etc. I rate Pacers better than Portland in every aspect of course so can’t really see Bulls solving this problem area tonight.

All in all, this should be slow tempo game, at least Bulls will try to play slowly so I think UNDER is the best option.

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[paul8209]

NBA Milwaukee Bucks - Denver Nuggets

Recommendation: Bucks - 3

Odds: 1.80

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


This would be a battle between two struggling teams. Denver are nasty with a single win in their last 8 games, 6 straight losses. Bucks are not much better frankly speaking, 2 wins out of their last 8. Their performance has been a bit better in the last games though, especially yesterday against Charlotte. Only the weak long distance shooting percentage prevented them from keeping the game much closer, and it was still a match in the last 2 minutes.

The reason behind the improved performance was Jason Kidd decision to shake up the starting line-up a bit. He replaced Jabari Parker and Michael Carter-Williams with Mayo and Bayless respectively. This move boosted the defense which was vital for Bucks. No doubt that MCW and Parker are better players than their back-ups and will return to the starting line-up sooner rather than later but at least for now they should provide good ball distribution and attacking options in the second unit minutes.

Denver will likely have Kenneth Faried back tonight but I doubt he can do something to turn their season around. They just lack enough talent. Gallinari is a good sharp-shooter but too inconsistent in the other parts of the game. Nuggets management is just waiting a few seasons for rookie PG Mudiay to grow up so they can start the rebuilding process around him.

Teams exchanged home wins last season. Denver already recorded a win against Bucks on their home floor earlier this month but it was very close one, 103-102. Milwaukee’s turn now and I strongly favor the chance of history repeating this season.

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[paul8209]

NBA Houston Rockets - New Orleans Pelicans

Recommendation: Rockets - 4

Odds: 1.952

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


I liked very much what I saw yesterday from Pelicans, in terms of how they failed to hold on to their lead and fell miserably to the pressure applied by veteran Grizzlies. No reason to quit the boat now then and I continue to fade New Orleans. They’re obviously back to back and play in Houston where the clock is also ticking for Rockets to finally turn their season around a bit.

It’s not that I like Houston as a team, they rely solely on Dwight and The Beard, yet having 2 go-to guys is always better than having only one (Davis for Pelicans). Rockets improved their game, albeit by a small degree after the coach change. Harden should be happy now and let’s hope he will finally start delivering too. Once in a shooting rhythm, he is hard to stop in making 3’s and penetrating to the rim, even against excellent rim protector and paint defender like Anthony Davis. Dwight Howard have rested a bit after coming home from Houston last game in Detroit and should be able to contain Davis scoring threat on Rockets behalf subsequently.

New Orleans are tragic on the road so far with 1-9 record and have lost 7 of 8 against this opponent here. They truly split the series last season 2-2 (each team winning also a road game) but Pelicans were better then, plus it’s a tough spot for them and I’ll be surprised to see anything different than a Rockets win here.

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[paul8209]

Toronto Raptors - Golden State Warriors

Recommendation: OVER 208

Odds: 2.02

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Toronto went as close as it gets to beating champions GSW this season. They almost completed an epic come back from double digit points deficit in the first game in the series this season. GSW still found a way to win it 115-110 in the end, quite obviously, as they are still undefeated. The last minutes featured a few disputed referee calls which went in GSW favour and Raptors should really feel a bit angry and motivated for revenge tonight.

It’s easier said than done though, it would need a very special effort for any team to defeat Warriors for the first time during the season. Toronto are without starting center Valanciunas (broken hand) so the hard task of protecting the paint against the fast penetrations from GSW backcourt will fall to backup Bismack Biyombo. I very much doubt this will mean quite a lot of easy lay-ups for Curry and Co. Plus Golden State always have their 3-point shooting and they just need to hit a very average percentage in order to reach around 110 points in any given game.

Toronto just can’t let themselves to play slow pace if they want to be close in 4th. Kyle Lowry is on fire lately and should take the bulk of the scoring load, feeling he should prove himself against the league’s best PG. All in all, I won’t be surprised to see the same kind of result as in the first game. Toronto plus the points are also a slightly attracting option but I just don’t have the balls to fade GSW until they record that first loss, even with close to double digit spreads

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[paul8209]

NBA Cleveland Cavaliers - Portland Trail Blazers

Recommendation: UNDER 200

Odds: 1.917

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Cleveland should win this game of course but the spread is kinda steep, almost double digit. They can cover it but I’m always cautious with one man teams big spreads (unless this man is called Michael Jordan) as just so many things may go wrong!

Portland are b2b after a hard match in Milwaukee yesterday. Some fatigue factor could come in play but more importantly their shooting percentage dropped quite significantly in the last few games. This is pretty normal, frankly speaking, as they rely heavily on their 2 stars Lillard and McCollum to carry the offensive load. Both are good shooters but too streaky and inconsistent, at least at this stage in their careers.

Mo Williams got some knock in the last game but is expected to play tonight, so Cavs perimeter defense is looking decent with him and Dellavedova as backup. LeBron will take the attack calls in the 4th quarter as usual and this will slow the pace down a bit.

Both meetings in the series went comfortably below this line so I’ve a reason to fully expect the same result today.

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[paul8209]

NBA Washington Wizards - Houston Rockets

Recommendation: Wizards - 3

Odds: 1.892

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


It seems like these 2 teams are heading in a different directions currently.

Wizards had a mini slump, some very bad no show games, caused by a rift between Superstar John Wall and Coach Randy Wittman maybe. This seems a distant past now though after a superb win in Miami. Wall showed a good leadership example, playing in the game and giving out his 100 % after he got a knee knock in the previous game. Wizards have never been world beaters so far and won’t suddenly become one from now on. They are resilient though, especially at home and should really start adjusting their home record for the season (4-6 currently). They’ve had one day of rest unlike Houston who are back to back. Center Marcin Gortat is expected to be back in the team and ready for action tonight after he attended his family in Poland for personal reasons last week.

Rockets have even bigger problems than the ugly loss yesterday in Brooklyn. They lost Trevor Ariza after a hard fall to the floor. He was assisted in walking out of the court, never returned and his participation tonight is doubtful. Add to that the usual rest Dwight Howard gets in the second night of back to back spots (albeit no official info yet of course, it will become known shortly before game time) and the uncharacteristically bad offensive performance from Harden.

I’m sure The Beard will be better tonight, it’s not so hard to eclipse a 10-point night after all but he will probably be entitled to guard one of Wall / Beal pair and this means a lot of easy baskets for the home team with the lack of defensive effort Harden is showing.

In a nutshell, this is just the next ‘’normal’’ let down spot for Houston on their East trip

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[paul8209]

NBA Utah Jazz - Oklahoma City Thunder

Recommendation: Thunder - 3

Odds: 1.84

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Oklahoma looks like the real deal right now, going with strong 7 wins in the last 9 games. They’ve won comfortably against strong opponents like Atlanta and Memphis, and also have recorded an easy W here in Utah in the first game of the series, 111-89.

No reason to expect much improved performance from Jazz tonight. They continue to sorely miss the starting center Gobert. Favors is making for a decent fill in the center position but it would be a high bid for him to contain Ibaka, Adams and Kanter all alone. No need to mention that Durant is back at the very top of his game and Russell is just … Russell. Utah have good defenders but no defender is good enough for these 2 when they’re in the zone.

Everything’s clicking right for Thunder in the moment and any other result but an away win would be a surprise here.

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[paul8209]

NBA Brooklyn Nets - Miami Heat

Recommendation: Heat - 4

Odds: 1.833

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


No surprises here, I’m in Nets fading camp again. They showed some signs of life in the close defeat against Clippers, only to erase all the good impressions with a blow-out at home against Orlando. Magic can’t really boast they have atomic offense and still Brooklyn let them shoot almost 54 % from the field, wnough said. I’ll not repeat myself either at the lack of motivation in Brooklyn too, prefer to focus on the Heat instead.

Nets are one of Miami’s favourite opponents in recent times. They have 6 consecutive wins over them, including a 4-game clean sweep last regular season. Heat beat teams with defense and they got the most efficient shot blocker in the game in the moment in Hassan Whiteside. So Brook Lopez will get a very decent match in the paint tonight. Trading rumours are circling around Hassan by the way in the last couple of days, involving possible swaps between him and Dwight Howard or DeMacrus Cousins. Miami organization is of course denying all trade rumours, albeit the old fox Pat Riley will listen carefully to every single possibility as Hassan should be a max-contract player next summer and Heat will hardly be able to afford that. Nothing is coming with immediate effect though. Riley is a very clever man and should realize that swapping Hassan for Dwight is a stupid move, even allowing for the contract situation. DeMarcus is way more decent alternative but I don’t believe Kings will let him go so easily.

So in a nutshell, Hassan should be ready to play and strong as always, he’s not a trouble-making guy anyway. Dragic got a tooth knocked off in the last game but should be ready to play too, so Heat in full strength should deal with Nets more or less easily.

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[paul8209]

NBA Miami Heat - Toronto Raptors

Recommendation: Heat - 4

Odds: 1.847

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket

Again exploiting the tough schedule of the visiting team here. They are one of unlucky few teams to have a game yesterday night. Even more painfully, they’ve lost in OT in Charlotte after almost feeling the win in their hands with DeRozan scoring from the half court… only if Raptors’ coach hadn’t signaled for a time-out a second before the shot.

So as a reward Toronto have to play another team playing hard defense. This is a little underestimation indeed as Miami leads Eastern Conference in points allowed and opponent’s shooting percentage. Raptors continue to play without starting center Valanciunas and DeMarr Caroll is also still on the sidelines with a knee injury. These two severely limit the team’s big men rotation and offensive power and I’m pretty sure Whiteside and Chris Bosh will have advantage tonight. Luol Deng is likely to miss the game for Miami at the other hand but he’s not much of a contributor as this stage of his career anyway.

Last season Toronto won the season series 2-1 but Miami has tremendous advantage over them in the last seasons (ok, LBJ was still in Miami). Heat won comfortably the first game this season here 96-76 so another double digit win would be just in the correct order of things

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[paul8209]

NBA Minnesota Timberwolves - San Antonio Spurs

Recommendation: OVER 196

Odds: 2.00

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


Minny are shaky at home and have notoriously bad match-up against San Antonio, so I easily skipped the thought of backing them plus a ton of points. They’ve raised their offensive game to much better level compared to season beginning though. Lead by Ricky Rubio on the point, the ball movement and shot selection have been very decent in the last 5-6 games of theirs indeed.

They still make a ton of turnovers which cost them losses in close games, yet Wolves surpass or get close to 100 points on regular basis currently. It will be way tougher game tonight than last easy win over Brooklyn as SAS have undisputed advantage in the series.

Still Pop doesn’t like too many useless efforts thrown on the court once the win is secured. If they lead by 20 midway through the 4th Q, it’s easy to think they’ll let Minny score a bunch of easy lay-ups.

Teams have surpassed this total line in 6 of the last 7 games between them, so hopefully this exact trend continues tonight.

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[paul8209]

NBA Chicago Bulls - Indiana Pacers

Recommendation: UNDER 201

Odds: 2.00

Bookmaker: Pinnaclesports / Sportmarket


This game has all the necessary requisitions to be a low scoring one. Indiana and Chicago have been old rivals in the Central Division, going back to the old school times when MJ used to face Reggie Miller in a series of epic encounters and thrash talking battles J No love lost between the teams ever after and most games have some play-off bound atmosphere around them.

Chicago have underperformed a bit this season as I’ve mentioned before. This is mainly caused by Rose / Butler competition for the stardom of being the franchise player, something which drops both guys’ game performances IMO. Things are not going into the right direction as Jimmy Boy is allowing himself a public critics on the coach, etc., so it’s highly probable a major change is coming over the hill for Bulls, i.e. Rose trade (so Butler is happy), coach change, etc. Until that happens though it seems Chicago like to reserve their best performance for the league’s better teams, where Indiana surely belongs.

Pacers got back on the track with 2 consecutive wins after 3 games losing streak. Paul George is in the middle of a shooting slump but Monta Ellis and the bench guys have compensated it; yet Pacers usually don’t provide high scoring games without their leader and franchise player George being hot. Paul will surely be matched against Jimmy on both ends of the floor tonight, so will see whose player’ claims are more valid.

I definitely think Pacers have chances to take this game but usually find it very hard to win in Chicago. These teams already exchanged one win this season, each taking his respective home game. The last 8 games in the series have finished under the total line here and I see very good chances this trend to continue

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