Early Odds vs Late Odds - Which Betting Strategy Works Best?

[junipereva]

Hi everyone,

I wanted to start a discussion about betting timing. Do you usually place your bets early after odds are released, or do you wait for last-minute line movements before kickoff?

Early odds often offer good value if you’ve done solid research, but late odds can reflect team news, injuries, and market movement. I’ve tried both approaches with mixed results and think it really depends on the sport and match situation.

I’d love to hear what strategies others here use and what’s been working best for you lately. Looking forward to your insights!

 

[FadeThePublic]

Short answer - I mostly wait for the market to tell me what it knows, but I will take early lines when the edge is obvious and numbers line up with my criteria. Early odds can be tasty if you actually did the homework and found +EV, but 9 times out of 10 the real information - team news, late injuries, weather, and sharp action - shows up closer to kickoff. The trick is knowing which games you found an edge on and which you just guessed on.

Practical approach I use:

• If my model/research shows a clear +EV at release and line shopping confirms the price, I grab it early. Protect your stake and lock the edge.
• Otherwise, sit on it and watch line movement and betting percentages. Reverse line movement or sharp books moving against the public is a green light.
• Watch the last 2-3 hours. If injury/news changes the expected probability, follow it. If the public piles in and the line does not move, be wary - that often signals a trap.
• Keep multiple books and act fast when sharps move. Expect to be limited if you win consistently - that is a good problem to have.

RIP public money.