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Australian Open 2012 Men’s preview.
Betting market:
Novak Djokovic $2.48
Roger Federer $5.60
Any Murray: $7.60
Rafael Nadal $8.20
Jo Wilfried Tsonga $21.00
Juan Martin Del Potro $26.00
Tomas Berdych $40.00
Djokovic had one of the most dominant years in the history of the ATP tour in 2011. Up until the US Open he had lost only twice once against Federer in the Semis of the French Open and once retiring hurt against Murray in a Masters 1000 event at Cincinnati with the first signs of the shoulder problem that was to reoccur post Us Open. After the US Open he was affected by a number of injuries and also cited mental fatigue as another reason for his poor form late in the season. If Djokovic can recapture his form of 2011 he is very firm favourite and we expect him to win. However, there is a significant risk that Djokovic will not return to his high levels of 2011 in 2012, especially early on, where he is likely to have had significant holiday time (included a trip to the Maldives with Janko Tipsarevic). This will help his mental state and his injuries recover but he may not be at peak fitness. Djokovic showed that he may be back to his best with excellent showing at the Mubadala tournament.
Djokovics quarter of the draw:
Milos Raonic – highly regarded Canadian youngster with a massive serve, forehand and deceptively good net game. Won Chennai two weeks ago, but then withdrew with a stomach bug from the Kooyong round robin tournament
Andy Roddick – Former world #1 who has struggled with form and injuries of late. He has shown that he finds it tough to compete with top ten players now.
Janko Tipsarevic – A big improver in 2011 who pushed Djokovic at the Us Open in 2011 before retiring hurt. Has the game style to be competitive with Djokovic.
David Ferrer – seeded to meet Djokovic in the quarter final. Although a great competitor, he is unlikely to be able to take a set from Djokovic at 100%.
Andy Murray made the Semi Finals or better at every Grand Slam in 2011. However, he is 0-3 in Grand Slam finals who has now developed a reputation as being mentally “soft”. In reality we doubt his losses in the big matches are related to his mental character but weaknesses in his game. Murray finds himself in the counter puncher roll when playing the bigger hitters, most importantly Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. His serve and in particular his second serve is perhaps his biggest weaknesses. Hopefully for the Murray he can work on this shot over the off season in time for 2012. Murray has also recently started working with Ivan Lendl.
Murray’s quarter of the draw:
Gael Monfils – crowd favourite, amazing shot maker and a great athlete. However, a lack of personal discipline while on court and the lack of ability to concentrate make Monfils unlikely to ever figure prominently in a grand slam.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga – the 2008 Australian open has been in good form late in 2011. He has a big game and is a genuine threat to take Murray out. Like Monfils, Tsonga can struggle to keep concentration for an entire match and also withdrew from Kooyong last week, citing fatigue.
Yes Federer is now on the “wrong” side of 30, however, Federer finished 2011 in great form winning the tour finals at London. Although most would agree that he is past his best, he started playing with some extra aggression in 2011 that had been lacking in 2010. Federer is so strong when it comes to timing his preparation in tournaments and starts very well when he is mentally “up” for a match. He also has the game most likely to push Djokovic because he can sit up on the baseline and dominate play. He beat Djokovic at the French Open and was 5-3 in the 5th set and serving at 40-15 before Djokovic came back to beat him. There may be a question mark over Federer's ability to maintain his best level over 5 sets, with 5 set losses in the last two Grand Slams of 2011 -Wimbledon and US Open. Federer comes into the Australian Open under an injury cloud after withdrawing from Doha with a back injury. The slow court and heavy balls at this year’s open and the toughest quarter will count against him.
Federers quarter of the draw:
Mardy Fish – recently declared that he is 100% fit the first time in recent memory. Fish has played very well since dropping excess weight some 2 years ago. However, a big grand slam result still eludes Mardy.
Juan Martin Del Potro – the 2009 US Open winner is tipped by many as the player who will break up the “top 4”. Huge game with weapons that can win the tournament. However, Del Potro still hasn’t quite recovered his best from post wrist surgery in 2010.
Nadal is at the crossroads. He has long prided himself on and developed his reputation as an on court warrior. He is increasingly effected by injuries, while at the end of 2011 he revealed that he is mentally fatigued as a result of playing at the top level for so many years. His confidence has taken a battering from the dominant Djokovic. In 2011 Djokovic had a 6-0 record against Nadal, all matches were finals, 2 of which were played on Clay. Nadal's game style started to revert to his game style of pre 2008/09 where he played a clay court style game on other types of court. He needs to become more aggressive as he had been leading up until 2011 where he had flattened out his ground strokes and serve to enable him to be the aggressor in points and to get more free points on serve. Despite the mental and physical hurdles that Nadal may face in 2012 he is still a dominant force in mens tennis who record against other top 10 players even in 2011 was impressive. Nadal is currently struggling with a shoulder injury having declared that he will take some time off after the Australian Open.
Nadals quarter of the draw:
Tomas Berdych: finally put it altogether in 2011 and cemented his place in the top 10. Berdych has a big game and has made a grand slam final before. If Nadal slips Berdych can get to the semis.
Marcos Baghdatis: in great form since the 2011 US Open and beat Juan Martin Del Potro in Sydney last week. Baghdatis made the final of the Australian open in 2006, but has struggled to keep up with changes in the game since. He is playing well and the Melbourne crowd love him.
We think Novak Djokovic can win the Australian Open. Tomas Berdych is the best outsider.
Preview by: www.advantagetennistips.com
Betting market:
Novak Djokovic $2.48
Roger Federer $5.60
Any Murray: $7.60
Rafael Nadal $8.20
Jo Wilfried Tsonga $21.00
Juan Martin Del Potro $26.00
Tomas Berdych $40.00
Djokovic had one of the most dominant years in the history of the ATP tour in 2011. Up until the US Open he had lost only twice once against Federer in the Semis of the French Open and once retiring hurt against Murray in a Masters 1000 event at Cincinnati with the first signs of the shoulder problem that was to reoccur post Us Open. After the US Open he was affected by a number of injuries and also cited mental fatigue as another reason for his poor form late in the season. If Djokovic can recapture his form of 2011 he is very firm favourite and we expect him to win. However, there is a significant risk that Djokovic will not return to his high levels of 2011 in 2012, especially early on, where he is likely to have had significant holiday time (included a trip to the Maldives with Janko Tipsarevic). This will help his mental state and his injuries recover but he may not be at peak fitness. Djokovic showed that he may be back to his best with excellent showing at the Mubadala tournament.
Djokovics quarter of the draw:
Milos Raonic – highly regarded Canadian youngster with a massive serve, forehand and deceptively good net game. Won Chennai two weeks ago, but then withdrew with a stomach bug from the Kooyong round robin tournament
Andy Roddick – Former world #1 who has struggled with form and injuries of late. He has shown that he finds it tough to compete with top ten players now.
Janko Tipsarevic – A big improver in 2011 who pushed Djokovic at the Us Open in 2011 before retiring hurt. Has the game style to be competitive with Djokovic.
David Ferrer – seeded to meet Djokovic in the quarter final. Although a great competitor, he is unlikely to be able to take a set from Djokovic at 100%.
Andy Murray made the Semi Finals or better at every Grand Slam in 2011. However, he is 0-3 in Grand Slam finals who has now developed a reputation as being mentally “soft”. In reality we doubt his losses in the big matches are related to his mental character but weaknesses in his game. Murray finds himself in the counter puncher roll when playing the bigger hitters, most importantly Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. His serve and in particular his second serve is perhaps his biggest weaknesses. Hopefully for the Murray he can work on this shot over the off season in time for 2012. Murray has also recently started working with Ivan Lendl.
Murray’s quarter of the draw:
Gael Monfils – crowd favourite, amazing shot maker and a great athlete. However, a lack of personal discipline while on court and the lack of ability to concentrate make Monfils unlikely to ever figure prominently in a grand slam.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga – the 2008 Australian open has been in good form late in 2011. He has a big game and is a genuine threat to take Murray out. Like Monfils, Tsonga can struggle to keep concentration for an entire match and also withdrew from Kooyong last week, citing fatigue.
Yes Federer is now on the “wrong” side of 30, however, Federer finished 2011 in great form winning the tour finals at London. Although most would agree that he is past his best, he started playing with some extra aggression in 2011 that had been lacking in 2010. Federer is so strong when it comes to timing his preparation in tournaments and starts very well when he is mentally “up” for a match. He also has the game most likely to push Djokovic because he can sit up on the baseline and dominate play. He beat Djokovic at the French Open and was 5-3 in the 5th set and serving at 40-15 before Djokovic came back to beat him. There may be a question mark over Federer's ability to maintain his best level over 5 sets, with 5 set losses in the last two Grand Slams of 2011 -Wimbledon and US Open. Federer comes into the Australian Open under an injury cloud after withdrawing from Doha with a back injury. The slow court and heavy balls at this year’s open and the toughest quarter will count against him.
Federers quarter of the draw:
Mardy Fish – recently declared that he is 100% fit the first time in recent memory. Fish has played very well since dropping excess weight some 2 years ago. However, a big grand slam result still eludes Mardy.
Juan Martin Del Potro – the 2009 US Open winner is tipped by many as the player who will break up the “top 4”. Huge game with weapons that can win the tournament. However, Del Potro still hasn’t quite recovered his best from post wrist surgery in 2010.
Nadal is at the crossroads. He has long prided himself on and developed his reputation as an on court warrior. He is increasingly effected by injuries, while at the end of 2011 he revealed that he is mentally fatigued as a result of playing at the top level for so many years. His confidence has taken a battering from the dominant Djokovic. In 2011 Djokovic had a 6-0 record against Nadal, all matches were finals, 2 of which were played on Clay. Nadal's game style started to revert to his game style of pre 2008/09 where he played a clay court style game on other types of court. He needs to become more aggressive as he had been leading up until 2011 where he had flattened out his ground strokes and serve to enable him to be the aggressor in points and to get more free points on serve. Despite the mental and physical hurdles that Nadal may face in 2012 he is still a dominant force in mens tennis who record against other top 10 players even in 2011 was impressive. Nadal is currently struggling with a shoulder injury having declared that he will take some time off after the Australian Open.
Nadals quarter of the draw:
Tomas Berdych: finally put it altogether in 2011 and cemented his place in the top 10. Berdych has a big game and has made a grand slam final before. If Nadal slips Berdych can get to the semis.
Marcos Baghdatis: in great form since the 2011 US Open and beat Juan Martin Del Potro in Sydney last week. Baghdatis made the final of the Australian open in 2006, but has struggled to keep up with changes in the game since. He is playing well and the Melbourne crowd love him.
We think Novak Djokovic can win the Australian Open. Tomas Berdych is the best outsider.
Preview by: www.advantagetennistips.com
