sample size awareness

Performance isn't just what you achieve. It's how accurately you describe what you achieve. I've watched smart bettors lose their way not because their edge disappeared, but because they measured it badly and ended up believing the wrong story about themselves. This article is for intermediate...

One of the hardest truths once you start operating at a genuinely sharp level is that you can be a good bettor and still look awful for long stretches, not because your edge vanished, but because variance speaks louder in the short term than any model, routine, or careful reasoning...