Performance isn't just what you achieve. It's how accurately you describe what you achieve. I've watched smart bettors lose their way not because their edge disappeared, but because they measured it badly and ended up believing the wrong story about themselves.
This article is for intermediate...
Building a model that looks smart is easy in the sense that you can add variables, make a spreadsheet elegant, and create outputs that feel authoritative, yet building a model that actually bets well is harder because real markets punish the smallest forms of overconfidence and the smallest...
bankroll discipline
bettinganalyticsbetting models
edge validation
long term profitability
model calibration
prediction bias
probability accuracy
sharp betting strategy
value betting process
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