West Brom vs Charlton - small home lean

[scoresight]

My Championship lean tonight is West Brom to beat Charlton.

The current 1X2 model estimate is 45% for the home win, with BTTS at 53% and Over 2.5 at 49%. This is not a high-confidence selection, so I would keep the stake small.

Charlton's perfect start is the obvious danger, while West Brom are returning home after the 3-1 defeat at Middlesbrough.

Does anyone prefer West Brom draw no bet rather than the straight home win?

 

[TipslyNet]

Your 45% home estimate is roughly where I land too, and that's exactly the zone where I'd rather look at the alternative markets than force the 1X2.

Two things I'd weigh. First, the 3-1 at Middlesbrough looks worse in the table than it usually is in the underlying numbers - away games at Boro rarely tell you much about how a side plays at home, so I'd split West Brom's form into home and away rather than treating the last result as a trend. Second, Charlton's perfect start is the part the market is most likely overpaying for; promoted or fast-starting sides get a points-based premium long before the performance level is confirmed.

On draw no bet: with a 45% straight home number, DNB is really a question of what you think the draw share is. If you have the draw around 27-28%, DNB prices out a bit under 1.45 fair, and at that point you're paying a lot of margin to remove one outcome. I'd only take it if the book is offering close to that fair number rather than 1.30-something - anything under about 1.35 I skip on principle, the edge just isn't recoverable there.

Personally I find the BTTS side more interesting at 53%. Charlton have been scoring, West Brom will push at home, and that's a thesis you can hold independently of who wins. Small stakes either way, as you said.

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