Recent content by xenophon

Even when models use the same data provider, they can still fail in different ways because feature construction, missing-data handling, league filters and decision thresholds matter a great deal. The larger risk is that everyone inherits the same blind spots from the feed. I think source...

A useful point about calibration. Raw hit rate can be misleading when markets have different base rates and average odds. I think each market should be evaluated separately, using out-of-sample data and minimum sample sizes per league. It is also important to keep every settled signal visible...

Hi everyone, I’m a software developer from Turkey with a long-standing interest in football statistics and betting models. I mainly study goal markets and enjoy looking at model calibration, sample size, league coverage and transparent result tracking. I joined to learn how others validate...