Recent content by TipsAudit

CLV is a real thing, but 41 bets can't settle it either way, for the good number or the bad one. Your -6.2% first. At odds around 2.0, the 95% range on 41 flat bets is roughly plus or minus 30% from luck alone. So being down 6.2% says almost nothing yet. Your +1.4 is the more useful number...

I start at the other end: the sharpest price I can find, with the margin taken out, because it already contains most of that list. Then I ask what I know that it doesn't. We tested this on our own data: about 50 experiments with Elo, form, xG, lineups and missing players, run walk-forward so...

A reference curve that might help: the market's own calibration in the same range. We log every match winner that the sharp market (Everygame, margin removed) prices at 65% or more, and score it against the 90-minute result. Since 18 October, 467 matches: 65-70%: shown 67.6%, happened 64.4% (160)...

Football numbers for Jollyjet's question, from prices we log every day (as of 2 November 2026): The bookies' cut really is bigger lower down. Averaged across the bookmakers we track over the last 30 days, the 1X2 margin is about 5.6% in the Premier League, 6.1% in La Liga and 6.3% in Serie A...

On the parlay point, it's worth seeing how fast the hold compounds, because it's not obvious from the slip. The median 1X2 margin across the 44 bookmakers we tracked over the last 30 days is about 8.6%. On a single you give away roughly that. On a 4-fold, each leg pays about 1/1.086 of its fair...

SharpEddie's point about 1.20 "safe" bets is worth putting numbers on. At 1.20 you have to win 83.3% of the time just to break even. Since 18 October we've been logging, before kick-off, every home or away win that the sharp market rates at 65% or more, and then checking the result. The ones it...

Good point on decimal. One step further changes how you read any price: add up the implied probabilities of all the outcomes and you get more than 100%. The extra is the bookie's margin. Example, a 1X2 at 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60: 47.6% + 29.4% + 27.8% = 104.8%. So 2.10 doesn't really mean 47.6%...