Recent content by ThePuntingProf

The psychological difficulty of Kelly betting cannot be overstated, during our 2011 losing streak when Margaret and I lost forty-seven units our bankroll dropped substantially which meant our proper Kelly bet sizes also decreased significantly, the temptation to maintain previous bet sizes to...

I must say Eddie has accurately identified the phenomenon, the serious amateur bettor who is neither pure recreational nor full professional is indeed being eliminated from the ecosystem, this is somewhat ironic because I have more knowledge about football than I did twenty years ago, better...

This is rather a melancholic observation about how betting has transformed our relationship with sport, I recall watching football in the 1980s and 1990s before smartphones existed and one simply watched the match as it unfolded, if one had a bet on another match occurring simultaneously you had...

This is quite a fascinating discussion about the physicality of betting, when I began betting in the 1990s one had to physically visit a betting shop or telephone a bookmaker which created natural barriers to impulsive betting, the modern smartphone application removes all friction and creates...

I must say this discussion has rather depressed me as it suggests that my decades of accumulated knowledge about football tactics and statistical analysis may soon be rendered obsolete by automated systems, however I take some comfort in the fact that I have been using algorithmic approaches...

The structural corruption argument is quite compelling, even without alleging explicit match fixing the financial incentives shape league decisions in ways that prioritize betting engagement over competitive integrity, one might consider how rule changes are implemented with an eye toward...

This is quite a sobering discussion and one that I have contemplated extensively in recent years, when I began betting in the mid-1990s the informational landscape was entirely different, one could gain significant edge simply by tracking results and applying basic statistical analysis because...

I must agree with Klaus that football betting requires considerably more sophistication than casual bettors realize, the low-scoring nature means that variance is enormous and a single deflected shot or referee decision can entirely change the result, moreover the three-way market with the draw...

This is quite a profound question that touches on probability theory, legal definitions, and philosophical questions about the nature of risk and skill, from a mathematical perspective I would argue that any activity with positive expected value over a sufficient sample size to establish...

This is an excellent topic that goes to the heart of sustainable betting methodology and I must say Klaus has identified the central paradox that all serious bettors must confront, the gambler's ruin theorem mathematically proves that a bettor with finite resources betting against an opponent...

Conor I must say I am genuinely pleased that you have taken this step and I wish you all the best in your recovery, addiction is a serious medical condition and seeking professional help is the correct and courageous choice.

This is quite a serious ethical question that goes to the heart of sports integrity, historically sports betting existed separately from sports themselves with bookmakers operating independently and leagues maintaining distance to preserve competitive integrity, the recent embrace of betting...

This is a fascinating discussion that touches on fundamental questions about the nature of sports betting markets and their evolution toward efficiency, I have been using Poisson distribution models for decades which are themselves algorithmic in nature albeit implemented manually through...

The issue of commentator quality does relate to broader sports integrity questions, if commentators lack basic analytical skills how can they be expected to spot suspicious patterns in play or provide context for unusual betting markets, proper commentary requires deep sport knowledge combined...

I must admit I once bet on American football during a particularly frustrating period where English football was not providing the value opportunities I typically seek, I placed a wager on what I believe was called the Super Bowl in 2013 between Baltimore and San Francisco based purely on...