Recent content by ThePuntingProf

One appreciates that not everyone wishes to wallow in the finer points of probability theory and I am quite content for most punters to continue backing 3–2 on a hunch because their favourite striker “is due” as that is precisely the liquidity which allows those of us who have taken the time to...

One must distinguish between factors which the market has already largely absorbed into the price and those which remain somewhat nebulous and therefore subject to mispricing, rest advantage in modern professional sport particularly the NFL and top-level football is in my view mostly in the...

One must consider when punting on football that goals in most matches follow a Poisson distribution rather elegantly when adjusted for expected goals home advantage and fixture congestion and if one calculates probable scorelines across a sufficiently large data sample one can identify mispriced...

One must be careful not to confuse correlation with causation when it comes to this fashionable “fade the public” mantra because what we are really observing in many of these immensely shareable pie charts is not the mystical power of contrarianism but simply the market responding to lopsided...

If I may say so this is actually one of the more sensible reviews of a so-called crypto betting broker that I have read in recent years because rather than simply parroting marketing slogans you have at least attempted to address the two questions that matter most to anyone who takes their...

One must bear in mind that what is now described rather breathlessly as “sports betting arbitrage” and marketed as some kind of financial innovation is in fact simply the logical consequence of different firms ascribing slightly different probabilities to the same events and when Margaret and I...