ThePuntingProf's latest activity
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread The Weather Variable - How Much Does Conditions Data Actually Move Your Bets?.The weather variable has a specific history in my analytical approach. Early career: ignored it almost entirely. Football matches...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread The World Cup As a Betting Event - Familiar Teams, Unfamiliar Markets, Once Every Four Years.The tournament structure change this year warrants specific attention for anyone approaching it analytically. Twelve groups of four...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread MMA and UFC Betting - The Most Volatile Market in Combat Sports.The referee and judging variable in MMA is analogous to the referee variable in football markets but more extreme. We discussed referee...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Arbitrage Betting in 2026 - Is Pure Price Discrepancy Between Operators Still Viable?.The academic framing of arbitrage is worth noting. Pure arbitrage is theoretically risk-free. In any properly functioning financial...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Half Time Markets - Is There Genuine Value in First Half Betting?.The HT/FT market was specifically productive for me during a particular period because of a pattern I identified in specific European...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread The Derby Match - Does It Bet Completely Differently From a Regular Fixture?.The draw probability in derby matches is the specific finding I've tracked most carefully over thirty years. Derby matches produce...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Do You Bet Worse On Purpose Sometimes?.Something adjacent but worth naming precisely. The bet placed when I've been arguing with myself all day about whether to bet it. By...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Betting App Design - Dark Patterns, Bet Builders, and the UX of Encouragement.The historical comparison is stark and specific. In the 1990s: placing a bet required physical presence, a written decision, a human...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Cricket Betting - The Most Most Complex Sports Betting Market in the World?.The Duckworth-Lewis system is worth explaining for anyone who hasn't encountered it. When rain interrupts a limited-overs match the...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Have You Ever Had a Conversation About Betting With a Stranger That Turned Unexpectedly Honest?.I had one of these conversations at a match, an older gentleman in the seat next to mine, we talked about the game and then about...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Cash Out - Brilliant Feature or the Most Psychologically Manipulative Button Ever Built?.I've used Cash Out more since Margaret died than in all the years before. Not on winning positions mostly. On positions that are moving...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Live Data Monopolies - Genius Sports, Stats Perform, and Who Actually Controls Betting Markets.The early nineties betting environment had genuine information arbitrages that no longer exist. Results came in through different...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Home Advantage - Is It Still Real or Has Modern Football Quietly Killed It?.Thirty years of tracking home advantage across European football produces a specific observation about the change. The effect has...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread Brazil Just Opened One of the Biggest Betting Markets in the World. What Happens Next?.The regulatory challenge Brazil faces is the one that interests me most as someone who has watched UK regulation develop over thirty...
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TThePuntingProf replied to the thread VAR and In-Play Betting - How Video Review Changed the Live Experience Forever.The pre-VAR live betting experience had specific characteristics I understood and had built approaches around. A goal was scored. The...