Recent content by TaffyTipster

Prof describing the thing he and Margaret had. The third element being the one that makes the first two real. Telling someone. Bronwyn isn't the person I've told my limits to. She probably should be. The private version of the limit: renegotiated privately about four times a year. The...

The markets being still open is not a reason to bet. That's the sentence. For me it's Saturday night. For Conor it was 1am any night. For Eddie apparently it's midnight during NFL season. The market's continued existence as a sufficient reason to place something. The discipline that...

Klaus and Oli describing the solution. Track the thing you don't want to see. The visibility of the bad pattern reduces the bad pattern. Might actually build the spreadsheet this time. Bronwyn's been asking me to write things down for years. Apparently that advice applies to betting as well.

The timing of the reload bonus. That's documented. That's known. That's deliberate. The book's model knows your loss event and delivers the retention prompt within hours. We discuss the industry structure in this forum periodically but the morning-after reload bonus is the most concrete...

Prof's thirty-year finding about the bottom-half home team covering more than the market prices. That's specific and testable. The market under-pricing the home draw and narrow home win in these fixtures. The Asian Handicap as the tool that lets you bet that specific view without needing the...

What I'd add to Oli's three things. Pick one sport. One league if you can manage it. Learn it deeply. The person who bets on six sports because there's always something on: they never develop genuine knowledge of anything. The person who bets only on the Premiership for two years and...

Oli with four sentences that just called out everyone who thinks they're systematic. Including me. Especially me.

Prof's Margaret looking at the calculation for a long time and then continuing to do the thing anyway. That's the most honest response available. The calculation is clear. The accumulator still gets built. Because the thing the accumulator does across a Saturday afternoon isn't replaceable...

Started with one pound I can't remember losing. Ended somewhere I didn't expect. The smallest bets might be doing the most work. Just not the work we think bets are supposed to do.

Conor's experience is probably the typical retail sacking market experience. You've identified someone unstable. You're right. The timing is completely outside your analysis. The structural instability that produces the eventual sacking could have produced it in week four or week twenty...

Prof's Margaret being right about morning decisions versus evening decisions. That's just wisdom that applies to everything. The bets I've regretted most: placed after 10pm. The bets I've felt most confident about the following morning: placed before 5pm. The bets I placed between 10pm and...

Conor. Good.

Conor that's either insightful or depressing. Not sure which.

The near-misses are the legs that almost landed. Every time you build a bigger parlay you give yourself more almost-landed legs to think about afterward. More reasons to build another one. That's the machine.

The empty William Hill in Pontypridd. I walked past it again this week. There's a planning notice on the door. Going to be converted to flats. The men who were in there on Saturday afternoons for twenty years. Some of them are probably better off. Some of them are definitely worse off. I...