Recent content by TaffyTipster

If we’re talking pure science here: Bad coach + bad rest = I’m in the pub without a bet Good coach + bad rest = maybe a small play at the right price Bad coach + good rest = live TV car crash, tidy for entertainment only If it’s Wales with bad rest and bad coaching I’m just crying into my pint...

Right butt I’ll be honest, by the time you finished that sentence I needed a lie down and a cuppa. Not saying you’re wrong, just that most lads in the bookies are not thinking “Poisson distribution” when they’re slapping a fiver on 2–1 Thing is, I’ve seen the difference when you respect numbers...

Right butt, from the armchair-and-pint angle, I feel rest more on rugby than football. Seen plenty of Six Nations games where a side that’s a bit broken from the week before just falls off a cliff at 60 minutes. You can spot it – hands go, tackles get half-hearted, line speed dies. All the...

If you’re fading the public while half-cut, you’re not a contrarian, you’re just drunk in HD. You and the lads in the pub are the public, butt. If everyone around you is screaming for the same favourite and the odds have gone silly, fair enough, maybe there’s a dog worth a look. But if you’re...

@DublinDegen , you trying to run arbs is like asking the pub to let you work behind the bar on match day. Technically you know how a pint works. In practice, after an hour, there is beer everywhere and the till is wrong. Fair play for being honest about how it went. Most lads would just say...

Right butt, here’s the working class version. A few years back I did a little arbing between Betfair and a soft book on rugby. Nothing mad. Fivers, tenners, sometimes a bit more if the price was miles out. It does work. You see 2.30 one side, 1.80 the other side on the lay, you fiddle the...

Right butt, I get where @FadeThePublic ’s coming from, but I’m with Eddie on this one more than you’d think. Down the bookies on a Saturday, everyone’s on the same acca. City, Liverpool, Bayern, PSG, stick them all in, bit of BTTS, job done. If you just auto-fade every team the lads at the bar...

Right butt, happy it dropped in your favour this time, that’s always a lush feeling when the chips land right. But I’ll be honest with you – roulette will bite you long term, mun. House edge never takes a night off, no matter how “simple” the system looks. You had a good run, fair play, but I’d...

Right butt, been keeping an eye on these for a bit now and the write-ups are tidy. Like that Hammarby +0.5 call and the corners angle on Chelsea v Qarabag – proper explanation instead of just “take this, it wins”. Fair play for putting the reasoning in, makes it easier for lads like me to...

Right butt, just wanted to drop in and say fair play. Been lurking this thread for a while now and the grind is tidy – day in, day out, posting picks and keeping a record. Most people give up after a bad run, you just keep turning up and that’s what separates proper bettors from the weekend...