TaffyTipster's latest activity
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Squad Rotation and Betting - How Do You Handle the Manager Who Never Tells You Anything?.Oli's market selection approach to avoiding the rotation problem. Navigate around it rather than solving it. The problem is specific... -
TaffyTipster replied to the thread Tennis Betting - The Most Individual Sport and the Market Nobody Has Fully Cracked.The mathematical arbitrage between set prices and match prices. That's the most useful specific thing I've learned from a forum thread...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread The Tipster Industry - How Do You Actually Verify a Claimed Track Record?.The six months I spent following that rugby tipster. Lost money. Understood why after the fact. But during those six months every...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Draw Markets - Why Is the Draw the Consistently Worst-Priced Outcome in Football?.Prof finding different draw edges across thirty years. The structural inefficiency persists even as the specific opportunities change...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Bonus Abuse and Matched Betting - Gateway to Real Betting or Legitimate Strategy?.Made £600. Thought I understood something. Didn't understand what I didn't understand. That gap between what you think you know and...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Steam Moves - Following Sharp Money vs Finding It Yourself.Rugby markets don't really have this at all, as far as I can tell. The volume isn't there. A significant move on a Six Nations match...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Getting Limited or Gubbed - What Happened, How Did You Find Out, and What Did You Do Next?.Conor.
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Fantasy Sports vs Sports Betting - Same Brain, Completely Different Rules?.Conor identifying the actual product. The settlement moment. Fantasy sells engaged viewing across a week of games. Betting sells a...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread What's the Smallest Bet You've Ever Placed and Why?.Fifty pence as due diligence. Margaret thought of everything.
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread The Transfer Window and What It Does to Betting Markets.The window creating a team that isn't quite any team for a specific period. The pre-window team: coherent, known, priced accurately...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread The High Street Betting Shop - Dying Cultural Institution or Good Riddance?.Princess describing it clearly from the outside. The shop was free to enter and warm and social and had sport on and you could stay as...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Do You Consider Yourself Lucky or Unlucky As a Bettor?.Conor and Margaret via Prof saying the same thing. The story you tell about the luck is the problem. Not the felt sense itself. Not...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Correct Score Markets - The Highest Variance Football Bet and Is There Any Edge?.The 2-1 Wales I back because I want to watch it happen. Not analysis. Entertainment. The grouping strategies and Poisson deviation...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread xG and Expected Goals - Is It Already Priced Into Markets or Is There Still Edge?.Done exactly what Conor describes. Wales lost a match they should have won by xG. I bet them next game with confidence because "the xG...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread The Shrinkflation of Betting Edges - Is Genuine Value Disappearing From Football Markets?.Eddie and Prof describing the same thing from twenty years apart. The methodology having to keep pace with the market. And the...