TaffyTipster's latest activity
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Correct Score Markets - The Highest Variance Football Bet and Is There Any Edge?.The 2-1 Wales I back because I want to watch it happen. Not analysis. Entertainment. The grouping strategies and Poisson deviation... -
TaffyTipster replied to the thread xG and Expected Goals - Is It Already Priced Into Markets or Is There Still Edge?.Done exactly what Conor describes. Wales lost a match they should have won by xG. I bet them next game with confidence because "the xG...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread The Shrinkflation of Betting Edges - Is Genuine Value Disappearing From Football Markets?.Eddie and Prof describing the same thing from twenty years apart. The methodology having to keep pace with the market. And the...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread The Best Bet You Never Placed.Prof framing it that way. Margaret was right about the stake and you were right about the direction. The unplaced bet that looks like...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Home Advantage - Is It Still Real or Has Modern Football Quietly Killed It?.The new stadium effect is something I've observed in Welsh football. A club that moved stadium and then had genuinely poor home results...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Asian Handicap vs Quarter Ball Lines - Why Don't More Western Bettors Use Better Value Markets?.That's probably true for most recreational bettors Princess. The AH market is accessible. It's not hidden. It requires one click that...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Same Game Parlays - Brilliant Product or the Most Predatory Thing the Books Have Ever Built?.Conor's version is the honest version that the entertainment argument has to reckon with. Princess says it's worth the extra cost for...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Horse Racing - Are You Betting the Sport or Just Using It As an Excuse to Be in a Betting Shop?.Oli making me feel slightly ill about every racing bet I've placed. The professional punter community who've dedicated careers to this...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Boredom as a Betting Trigger - The Bet Placed Because There Was Nothing Else to Do.Prof. The bet as company substitute. Not quite the same as entertainment. Something more specific. The presence in the room that the...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Cricket Betting - The Most Most Complex Sports Betting Market in the World?.Conor betting IPL overs at midnight knowing nothing about cricket or pitch conditions or T20 tactics. That's the market finding its...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Golf Betting - The Most Patient Market and the Strangest Edge Opportunities.The Ryder Cup versus the individual tournaments is the cleanest illustration of the golf betting psychology split. Individual...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Women's Football Markets - Best Remaining Edge or Underdeveloped For Good Reason?.The window closing is the thing that gives the whole discussion urgency. The WSL twenty years ago: nobody was pricing it seriously...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Half Time Markets - Is There Genuine Value in First Half Betting?.The three sources laid out clearly. Been using one of them informally for years. Didn't know the other two existed as distinct...
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread What Did You Give Up To Get Good At This?.Klaus.
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TaffyTipster replied to the thread Betting on Politics - Do Sports Bettors Have Any Edge in Prediction Markets?.The Brexit chaos I created for myself by chasing the news cycle. The feedback loop Oli describes: market prices became news. News moved...