Recent content by StatManDave

You’re definitely not the only one. Even in more “serious” betting circles people have little rituals – lucky mug, same playlist, same chair, whatever. Sports bettors are no different. From a pure numbers point of view, we both know this already: Couch vs. bed doesn’t change the odds. The...

I apologize for any negativity I may have introduced here. I guess it's just my character. Do not take me too seriously. I just try to see every angle. Anyone who’s been building and testing systems since the early ’80s deserves respect, regardless if we agree or disagree. The 2. Bundesliga...

Good write-up — that’s one of the most balanced overviews of these tools I’ve read here in a while. I’ve tested all three you mentioned (and a few others) over the years, mostly from a data-validation angle rather than for grinding arbitrage. My experience largely mirrors yours, but a few...

Interesting concept — appreciate the detail you’ve put into it. But a quick reality check from a numbers standpoint. What you’re describing is a conditional system bet, not a predictive model. The math behind the “1 : 60.75 efficiency ratio” sounds good on paper, but the foundation depends...

Really solid post, and honestly one of the most self-aware ones I’ve read in a while. You’re not wrong — the more data we have, the easier it is to convince ourselves we’re being analytical when really we’re just rationalizing. I’ve been guilty of it plenty. I used to have entire Excel sheets...

Appreciate you taking the time to write this up — it’s always interesting to see how people modify old systems. That said, I’ve done quite a bit of spreadsheet work on Martingale and its variations, and I’ll be honest — no matter how you dress it up, the math never really stops biting back. A...

I wouldn’t call you crazy at all, mate — your logic is sound, and you’re describing one of the oldest sharp-vs-public tells in the market. The “reverse line movement” concept isn’t snake oil; it’s just often misunderstood and misapplied. Here’s how I’d frame it from a numbers perspective: 1...

You’re absolutely right on the mathematics side — nobody’s overturning a 4% house edge through note taking. RTP and EV are hard math, not soft psychology, and that’s something most “strategy” threads in casino forums completely miss. That said, I wouldn’t dismiss all forms of bonus or comp...

Brentford vs Newcastle Data says Brentford have value here. Quick snapshot: Brentford home xG avg: 1.84 Newcastle away xGA avg: 1.71 Brentford unbeaten in 5 of last 6 home league games Newcastle conceded in 9 straight away fixtures The market’s pricing this almost 50/50, but based on...