Recent content by SharpEddie47

The American context has a direct casino equivalent. Casino hosts: the Vegas hospitality model. Comped rooms, meals, show tickets, direct lines. For high rollers. The casino host's job description is explicit in a way the sports betting VIP host's is not: retain players who spend...

Oli's asymmetry is the correct framing. During VAR review: symmetric uncertainty for both parties about the outcome. Market response: asymmetric protection for the operator. The operator doesn't trade during the period when it's hardest to price accurately. The bettor can't trade during the...

Conor identifying the worst version of the CLV problem. The person whose bets systematically align with public money movement showing positive CLV. Interpreting that as validation. Using it to justify continuation. The metric designed to identify skill being used to misidentify its absence.

The practical edge from this analysis is modest. The quasi-home effect at neutral venues: smaller than the standard home advantage effect. Maybe 2-3% probability rather than the 5-7% documented in standard home advantage research. But it's consistent. It's calculable from public information...

The competing against yourself framing changes what success looks like. Beating the bookmaker: binary. You won or you didn't. Beating your previous analysis: continuous. The quality of your process is always improvable. The CLV benchmark is actually a version of this. Not: did I win. But: did...

The matched betting subscription services have a specific incentive problem. They profit from subscriber retention. Subscriber retention requires subscribers to keep doing matched betting or related activities. The honest message that matched betting skills don't transfer to real betting...

Klaus's distinction maps onto something I should have separated from steam at the start: reverse line movement. RLM: the betting percentage shows, say, seventy percent of bets on Team A, but the line moves toward Team B. This indicates that while most individual bets are on Team A, the average...

Princess asking the right question. The answer: some people do. The market has partially incorporated it. But the incorporation is incomplete because. First: the bettor population in card markets is predominantly casual. The casual bettor doesn't consult referee databases before backing over...

The ceiling of the career. Not the career itself. The ceiling of it. That's the precise version of what I was trying to articulate about consulting. Not that the work suffered. That it didn't reach what it might have. The betting didn't take the job. It took the headroom above the job.

There's a version of this that's its own psychology. The account-emptying bet. The one that clears the balance to zero so you're forced to stop. Not necessarily chasing. Sometimes almost the opposite. A controlled ending. This is done when this is gone.

The strangers on the internet have seen the costs. The lads in the pub are still in the part where the costs are funny stories. Different stages. Different available honesty.

Taffy identifying the correct framework for evaluating these tools. The relevant question isn't whether the tool exists. It's whether the tool operates during states of clear thinking only or also during states of impaired judgment. Tools that only work when you're thinking clearly are not...

Klaus's rationalization examination is the one worth pressing on. Small stakes in inappropriate contexts: the bet is small, the monitoring is the same. The stake size doesn't change what you're doing with your attention. The one euro bet during a school play requires the same monitoring...

Prof's taxonomy is the useful framework. Transferable: public sentiment fading in markets where narrative and underlying probability diverge. Partially transferable: market efficiency analysis, noting that political markets may be less efficient due to lower calibration frequency. Not...

American perspective on a specifically British and Irish institution. Visited shops in London in 2008 and again in 2014. Struck immediately by how different the experience was from anything in the US. The specificity of the atmosphere. The morning papers. The chalk boards giving way to digital...