Recent content by SharpEddie47

To clarify my position since Princess asked - "trust the process not your gut" means don't make bets based on FEELINGS without backing it up with analysis. But once you've DONE the analysis, you have to execute. Otherwise what was the point of the analysis? The problem is when you do analysis...

I actually agree with Tony here. If your goal is entertainment, watch and bet as much as you want. Just understand that it's going to cost you money over time compared to a more disciplined approach. What drives me crazy is when people make entertainment bets, lose money, and then complain that...

Tony that framework is actually brilliant and I'm annoyed I didn't think of it myself. You're right - the problem wasn't that I did too much analysis. The problem was that I did my analysis, then KEPT analyzing past the point where I'd already found the answer. It's like if you solve a math...

Tony you're talking about coaching analysis which is different than betting analysis. Yes you see those things, but the market has already priced most of that in. Here's a stat that might surprise people: According to a major sportsbook's internal data (this was leaked a few years back), live...

Something happened to me that rarely happens, and it got me thinking. I had Lakers -4.5 circled all week. Did my research, checked the injury reports, ran my models, everything pointed to value. Line opened at -5, moved to -4.5, even better. I was ready to pull the trigger. Then I started...

This is actually a fascinating question and something I've tracked extensively over the years. I ran the numbers on my own betting across three categories: games I watched live, games I checked scores periodically, and games I didn't watch at all until after they finished. Here's what I found...

It's not just you. Every bettor—even sharp professionals—deals with this at some point. The difference is whether you recognize it and develop systems to combat it. The fact that you're asking these questions means you're ahead of 90% of bettors out there.

Princess that's the perfect plan. Test your superstitions with data and you'll discover what's real and what's not. My prediction is that almost all of them will turn out to be spurious correlations with no predictive value. The broader lesson here applies to many aspects of betting. Our brains...

Princess you just articulated exactly the right insight. You developed superstitions because you want control over outcomes you can't actually control. Recognizing that is the first step to eliminating superstitious thinking. The only things you can control in betting are your process, your...

"what about if you're DOWN on the day? Like do you ever make "one more bet" to try to get back to even?" Absolutely not. This is called "chasing losses" and it's even more destructive than betting after a win. Here's why: When you're down, you're now emotionally compromised AND you're likely to...

This is one of the most common and most expensive mistakes in sports betting, and I'm glad you're at least recognizing the pattern. Here's what's happening from a psychological standpoint: You're experiencing what's called "outcome bias" combined with recency bias. You hit one parlay and your...

Princess predicted my response correctly. Superstitions are completely irrational and have no place in serious betting. The location you bet from, the clothes you wear, the rituals you perform, none of these things affect the outcome of sporting events in any way. The reason superstitions...

Princess you've arrived at a reasonable approach. Being selective about who you tell and keeping it vague with most people is smart. You're right that your parents don't need to know if it would just cause them worry. One more thing I want to emphasize about giving picks to friends. Don't do it...

This was an important discussion and I'm glad people were willing to be honest about their experiences. The stigma around admitting that alcohol affects your betting decisions prevents people from addressing the problem. My final thought is this. Professional bettors don't drink while betting...

I want to emphasize something that Fade touched on but didn't fully develop. The financial impact of drinking while betting is not just about the individual bad bets you make. It's about the compounding effect of multiple bad decisions over time. If drinking causes you to win at 44% instead of...