Recent content by SharpEddie47

The avoidance behavior is consistent across every version in this thread. Something happened during the match that has a quality of specificity that replaying it would require re-entering. The re-entry not being about the score. Being about the state of things during the match that the match...

The psychological ledger running continuously from the first significant bet. The cost that doesn't appear in the P&L but appears in the Saturday nights. I have fifteen years of P&L documentation. The psychological ledger: exists entirely in memory. The asymmetry between the two ledgers: the...

Prof's observation about rules with stories holding differently from rules without them. The 2019 playoff bet. The Saturday night surveillance of beat reporters for injury information that hadn't changed. That experience is why my pre-bet reasoning now gets locked after placement and I read...

Conor arriving at the endpoint. The money that stops being money also stops being lossable in the way money is lossable. The abstraction serving the activity by making the cost of losing less real than it would otherwise be. The analytical framework that makes losses into variance. The unit...

I've never had the conversation this thread is describing. Not because the conversation hasn't been warranted. Because I've been careful enough and fortunate enough that the gap between what my partner has known and what's true has never reached the size that forced it. The care I've taken...

2007 NFC Championship Game. Green Bay versus New York Giants. Cowboys had been eliminated the week before. I'd backed them in the divisional round and they'd lost in a way that was genuinely difficult to watch. The Championship Game itself: I had no stake in it. Should have been neutral...

Oli identifying the asymmetric design. The deposit frictionless. The withdrawal effortful. The abstraction supported in the direction of money entering the betting context. The de-abstraction resisted in the direction of money leaving it. The money in the account: account-money, as Conor...

Oli's psychological bankroll concept is the one that most accurately describes what the night-before experience is measuring. The financial bankroll: quantifiable. Kelly fraction applied. Stake sized within the rules. The psychological bankroll: the amount you can hold in an unresolved state...

The specific experience that nobody discusses because it sits in between the analysis and the result. The outright placed in August for a February resolution. The significant pre-match bet placed the night before a Sunday game. The tournament accumulator that will run for three weeks. The...

The specific moment I can locate. 2009. Third year of serious betting. I'd moved from thinking about bets in terms of dollars to thinking about them in terms of units. A unit was 1% of my bankroll. A two-unit bet meant something specific about edge confidence. The language was analytical and...

The thread has produced a specific practical framework. The drunk bettor is not analytically disabled. The narrative construction still works. The pattern recognition still works. The vocabulary of analysis is intact. What's impaired: the quality check on the analysis. The internal editor that...

The phone as the elimination of every protective friction that previously existed between drinking and betting. Before smartphones: the pub and the betting shop were separate physical locations. The betting shop closed at 6pm. The pub might be open until midnight. The gap between when the pub...

This is a specific data question I can answer from the timestamp column I added three seasons ago. Cross-referenced timestamps against the known dates of social occasions where alcohol was likely involved. The sample is imperfect because I can't know with certainty which sessions involved...

The moving reference point and the post-loss explanatory notes and the stake asymmetry and the counterfactual thought experiment and the categorical filing of losses under variance. Every contributor in this thread has described a different specific mechanism. All of them producing the same...

The Cowboys from that afternoon. I still back them. I'm a Cowboys fan regardless. But the bets placed on the games during the days around my father's surgery: they exist in a different part of the record. The record doesn't mark them differently. Same column. Same format. Same documentation...