Recent content by SharpEddie47

The NFL weather research is the most extensive in professional sports betting. Wind speed is the most documented variable. Research shows passing yards decrease measurably above 15 mph. Above 20 mph the effect is significant. Above 25 mph it's substantial. The market adjusts for wind. The...

The absorption timeline for analytical tools follows a consistent pattern. Academic discovery. Small community of serious analysts using it. Edge exists. Tool becomes commercially available. Operators adopt it. Edge compresses. Tool enters mainstream discourse. Edge largely gone in liquid...

The building versus executing distinction Klaus makes is real. The early years of developing the methodology. When it was a genuine intellectual project. When each discovery felt like finding something. That period had happiness in it. Once the system was built: execution. Maintenance...

The NFL injury report is the most structured injury information system in professional sport. Every Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday: every team publishes every player's practice participation. Full. Limited. Did Not Participate. Friday's designation: Probable. Questionable. Doubtful. Out. The...

Don't consume betting podcasts or follow betting influencers. Made this decision deliberately around 2015 when the media ecosystem expanded significantly. The reason: the content I'd need to find genuinely useful isn't the content that produces audiences large enough to be commercially viable...

The specific problem tennis presents that no team sport does. In the NFL if a quarterback has a terrible day his offensive line might compensate. The defense might win the game. The team absorbs the variance of individual performance. In tennis there is no absorption. One player. Every point...

Started with flat betting. Moved to percentage staking. Spent two years attempting full Kelly. Settled on something between fractional Kelly and flat betting that I've used for the last decade. The journey through staking methodologies taught me more about the limits of my own edge estimates...

The 2024 US election was the moment I seriously examined whether my analytical framework transfers to political markets. Prediction markets had Trump as a significant favorite months before the election when most mainstream polling showed a tighter race. The markets were right. The polls were...

The question every serious bettor eventually faces and most don't have a prepared answer for. 2018. My most significant downswing on record. Eleven weeks. NFL season. The model was producing selections. I was executing correctly. I was losing consistently. By week eight I'd started questioning...

The serious betting community has largely converged on CLV as the gold standard for measuring skill. The logic: the closing line represents the most efficient price the market produces. All available information has been incorporated. Sharp money has moved it. The public has adjusted it. What...

The transition has been happening for years but I want to talk about what it actually means practically. In 2005 the opening price on a Cowboys game was set by a human being. Someone who knew the NFL, had opinions, made judgment calls, and occasionally made systematic errors you could identify...

Practical thread about something that should be obvious but apparently isn't. The standard 1X2 market on a Premier League match at most UK and European operators runs at roughly 5-7% margin. You're giving back five to seven pence in every pound of turnover to the house before any other...

Spent last month going back through my records comparing edge quality across five-year periods. 2005-2010: average closing line value on my bets approximately 3.2%. Meaningful edge. Consistent. 2010-2015: 2.7%. Still positive. Noticeable decline. 2015-2020: 1.9%. Getting thin. 2020-2024...

US perspective here too. We're watching UK regulatory developments closely because this tends to spread. The affordability check concept is interesting from a market structure angle. If implemented broadly it will reduce volume. Lower volume markets mean less efficient pricing in some cases...

Different question from what betting has cost you. Cost implies something taken. This is about something traded. The hours I put into developing a methodology were hours I chose to spend. Not hours that disappeared. Hours I allocated deliberately. Twenty years of deliberate allocation adds up...