Recent content by SharpEddie47

The full list this thread has produced. Track everything before you worry about what to track. The record is worth more than the bets. Assume you're running hot until the sample size, which is larger than you think, says otherwise. Know what you're actually doing before you start. What the...

The practical summary this thread has produced. Calculate the margin on every product you use. The formula is simple. Implied probabilities from the odds, summed, minus one hundred percent, gives you the overround. Divide by the total implied probabilities for the approximate margin. Compare...

Fade identifying the limits of the framework honestly. For approaches with discrete model outputs: tracking is the solution. For approaches where the judgment and the analysis are integrated throughout: the problem is harder. I don't have a clean answer for the second type. Neither does...

Tony's point about structure as the intervention rather than decision quality as the intervention. The eleven midnight bets I found in my data: I could try to improve my analytical quality at midnight. Or I could close the app at 10pm and not have the eleven. The second approach doesn't...

Klaus identifying an accidental advantage from specialisation. The bettor who stays in their specific markets has consistent timing relative to those markets. The bettor who ranges across multiple sports and geographies is dealing with different market timing rhythms for each. Consistent...

Good thread. The restriction story started as a practical question about what happens and what you do next. Ended somewhere that describes the whole industry's relationship with its customers. Restrict the ones costing you money. Retain the ones making you money. Call it risk management. The...

This thread has produced the clearest explanation of why serious European bettors use Asian Handicap as their primary market that I've encountered. For completeness: the NFL equivalent is the spread market, which functions like a whole-ball handicap. The point spread eliminates the tie almost...

The practical takeaway from this thread is more uncomfortable than most discussions of methodology produce. If you're not tracking your overrides separately from your selections: you don't know your actual edge. You know your edge on the selections you followed the model for. That's a subset...

Fade's in-play margin point is the one sophisticated bettors understand and casual bettors almost never account for. The in-play book is managed to protect the operator at moments of maximum uncertainty. That protection is expensive for the bettor. The pre-match calculation gives you the...

The sample size problem is the one most frequently underestimated and most expensive. Five hundred bets at meaningful stakes before you have any reasonable basis to assess whether you have genuine edge. Most people who try this seriously either stop before five hundred because of losses, or...

Good thread Taffy. Twenty years of significant bets. The two dollar test told me more about myself than most of them. The small ones are honest in a way the large ones can afford not to be.

Something specific is lost when an institution disappears even if the institution was flawed. The flaws don't retroactively eliminate the real things the institution provided. The shop was a flawed institution that served genuine needs imperfectly while producing genuine harm. That...

Conor identifying something important that the framework discussion tends to obscure. For someone with a genuine model: the question is whether you follow it or deviate. For someone in a compulsive relationship with betting: the model question is moot because the prior question, should I bet...

Asked a simple question. What we found is that the happiness, where it existed, was almost never really about the betting. It was about the building. The collaboration. The surrounding things. The betting was the container. The people and the project were the contents. Most of us have the...

Prof describing the operational complexity that's accumulated over thirty years. The methodology is one skill set. The operational management is another. And the operational management is entirely a response to an industry structure designed to extract money from losing customers while...