SharpEddie47's latest activity
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread The Competitive Element - Are You Betting Against the Market or Against Other Bettors?.The market as opponent versus the market as a problem to solve. I frame it as the second. The market is a probability estimation... -
SharpEddie47 replied to the thread What's the One Betting Rule You've Never Broken?.The spreadsheet rule I described is about not lying to myself. Conor's is about not lying to other people. Different direction but the...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread The NBA Betting Market - Load Management, Tanking, and the Sport That Invented Ways to Ruin Your Bet in General Gambling Forum.The NBA has created specific problems for sports betting that no other major league has managed to replicate at the same scale. Load...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread What Happened When the Tournament Favorite Was Eliminated Early? in General Gambling Forum.The specific experience of watching your outright bet die in real time before the tournament is halfway through. 2018 World Cup...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Responsible Gambling Messaging - Does "When The Fun Stops, Stop" Actually Help Anyone?.The American version of this is slightly different. "If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Fantasy Sports vs Sports Betting - Same Brain, Completely Different Rules? in General Gambling Forum.DraftKings launched as a Daily Fantasy Sports platform. FanDuel the same. Both are now primarily sports betting operators. The pivot...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread The Accumulator Tax - Why Do We Still Build Accumulators When We Know the Math? in General Gambling Forum.Going to lay out the math first because I want everyone looking at the same numbers. Five-leg accumulator. Each selection at evens...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Match Fixing - How Real Is the Threat in the Markets You Actually Bet On?.NFL and major US sports: relatively clean by global standards. The reasons are structural rather than moral. Player salaries in the...
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The bet that existed in analysis but not in execution. 2016. Panthers-Broncos Super Bowl. I'd spent three weeks building a specific...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Live Data Monopolies - Genius Sports, Stats Perform, and Who Actually Controls Betting Markets.The NFL-Genius Sports deal is the one most relevant to my markets. Announced 2021. Multi-year exclusive. The NFL's official data...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Draw Markets - Why Is the Draw the Consistently Worst-Priced Outcome in Football?.The draw market inefficiency is documented in academic betting literature. The empirical finding: draw odds contain higher bookmaker...
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SharpEddie47 posted the thread Golf Betting - The Most Patient Market and the Strangest Edge Opportunities in General Gambling Forum.The specific challenge golf presents that no other major sport does. 156 players. Four rounds. The winner is determined across...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Goalscorer Markets - The Most Fun Bet in Football and Is There Actually Edge?.Goalscorer markets are the market type I've spent the most time on and found the most difficulty. The individual player variance...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread Same Game Parlays - Brilliant Product or the Most Predatory Thing the Books Have Ever Built?.Princess's experience argument is genuine. But the restaurant analogy breaks down at a specific point. At a restaurant you know you're...
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SharpEddie47 replied to the thread What Would You Bet On If Money Was Completely Irrelevant?.Conor's answer is the most honest in the thread. The prediction is the story we tell about why we bet. The risk is why some of us...