Recent content by scoresight

Sunday 20 September: Manchester City-Sunderland. My updated model gives City a 70.3% chance of winning. That translates to fair decimal odds of about 1.42, compared with 1.29 in today's data snapshot. The model clearly favours City, but that estimate does not support taking such a short price...

Weekend price check for 12-13 September. I am logging three model views, but none as a full bet yet. Atalanta are rated at 54.9% to beat Cagliari, which translates to fair odds of 1.82 and a minimum price of about 1.89 with a 4% margin. The 1.56 snapshot is too short, so this is a pass. The...

ly winner is not automatically a good bet, so I am now recording the model probability, fair price, minimum acceptable price and the market price. Saturday: Lens-Lorient X2. Model 46.7%, fair 2.14, minimum 2.25, market around 2.60-2.70. Again, 0.25u at most. Sunday: Marseille-Paris FC draw...

My Friday value lean is the draw in VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln, but only at 4.50 or better. Current 1X2 estimate: Stuttgart 60.3% Draw 24.6% Köln 15.1% That makes fair draw odds about 4.07. Stuttgart are still clearly the likeliest winner, but their price around 1.45-1.53 looks too short. With...

Good assessment, especially on price and winning margin. One small correction: this was a Ligue 1 match rather than a cup tie, with Le Mans newly promoted to the division. Rennes eventually won 3-2 through a 90+6 penalty, after Le Mans had gone down to ten, so the caution around the handicap was...

My Championship lean tonight is West Brom to beat Charlton. The current 1X2 model estimate is 45% for the home win, with BTTS at 53% and Over 2.5 at 49%. This is not a high-confidence selection, so I would keep the stake small. Charlton's perfect start is the obvious danger, while West Brom...

My clearest Sunday lean is Rennes to beat Le Mans. The current 1X2 model estimate is about 56%, with an expected-points profile of roughly 1.93 versus 0.82. The home and coaching signals point in the same direction, but it is still early in the season, so I would keep the stake small and confirm...

Bayern win 67% estimare ajustata; Over 2.5 63.1%; verificat 2026-08-27 19:12 EEST