Recent content by oli_sussex

The exchange years cost me emotional engagement with sport. That sounds small. It's not. The professionalization stripped out everything that isn't analytically useful. Sentiment: liability. Loyalty: liability. Aesthetic appreciation: irrelevant. To get good at exchange trading I had to...

The exchange volume data confirms this isn't purely a sports calendar effect. Cricket fills the summer months. Test match betting, particularly The Ashes when relevant, generates significant volume. Tennis Grand Slams: Wimbledon in July generates substantial trading. The summer isn't devoid...

The courtsider and scout phenomenon is what made official data mandates politically viable. Before official data was mandatory, unofficial data collectors attended matches and transmitted data faster than official feeds. The person sitting in the stands with a hidden transmitter sending...

The exchange in-play market during live weather events is the specific opportunity worth discussing. Weather forecasts have uncertainty. The forecast says moderate rain. The actual conditions are severe. The pre-match line was set on the forecast. The in-play conditions are different from the...

The exchange doesn't have free bets in the traditional sense, and the reason is structural. A free bet is a marketing cost the operator absorbs to acquire or retain a customer, recouped through the house edge on whatever the customer does next. The exchange's business model is commission on...

The exchange neutral venue market has a specific dynamic. Regular matches: sharp money arrives at opening and moves the line toward efficient pricing. Neutral venue finals: much higher proportion of public money relative to sharp. The total handle is enormous but the concentration of casual...

The exchange derby market has specific characteristics. Pre-derby price formation: more volatile than equivalent non-derby fixtures. The public money comes in waves rather than steadily. The sentiment narrative drives price movement in ways that smaller, more obscure matches don't experience...

The commercial structure behind the VIP relationship is specific and worth stating plainly. At the exchange professional level: no VIP relationships in the traditional sense. The exchange wants volume and liquidity. The analytical bettor who wins consistently gets restricted or faces higher...

Conor's experience is the documented failure mode that the industry uses to argue that tools don't work and the harm reduction community uses to argue that tools need to be better. Both sides use the same evidence differently. At the exchange I watched accounts that had self-excluded return...

The exchange doesn't offer traditional each-way betting. You can approximate it: back to win at the win price, separately back to place at the place price in a win or place market. The explicit separation makes the value calculation unavoidable. You're looking at two separate prices for two...

The exchange liquidity gap between cup and league fixtures involving the same clubs is significant and predictable. A Premier League match between two top-half clubs: substantial pre-match and in-play liquidity. The same two clubs in an FA Cup tie: noticeably thinner, sometimes by a wide...

At the exchange the question had a practical version. Paper trading. Recording predictions without financial stake. Used for system testing. Could not sustain interest in paper trading for more than a few weeks. The systems that worked on paper I subsequently bet with real money. The money...

The exchange first half market has specific liquidity characteristics. Pre-match first half markets: moderate liquidity. Less than full match, more than most exotic markets. In-play first half market between kickoff and the goal that changes the match state: thin. Participants are watching and...

The exchange NBA market has specific characteristics. In-play liquidity is high. The NBA generates significant trading volume during games because the score changes rapidly and the market-making opportunity is constant. Pre-game: the player availability problem is acute for exchange...

The exchange prices injury information faster than most retail bettors process it. The mechanism: large accounts with dedicated information feeds and faster processing respond to injury news within seconds. The retail bettor reading a BBC Sport notification three minutes after the news breaks...