Recent content by oli_sussex

Two observations. The bet size that produces the overnight checking behavior is the informative variable. Not the absolute amount. The amount relative to what you can psychologically carry. The bet that requires overnight surveillance to manage: larger than your actual psychological bankroll...

The abstraction is a product feature, not a side effect. The frictionless digital interface is designed for engagement. Friction at the point of spending: reduces spending. The casino industry discovered this and built chips. The betting industry discovered the digital equivalent and built...

Three specific effects of alcohol on betting behavior from exchange observation. One: increased position sizing. The drunk bettor bets more per selection than their baseline. Two: reduced market shopping. The drunk bettor takes the available price rather than comparing across books or waiting...

The honest account would be: write down the stake before placing the bet, write down the reasoning before placing the bet, write down the result after settlement, compare the post-result explanation to the pre-bet reasoning, and calculate P&L from a fixed starting point that doesn't move. Most...

The before-version is the thing you gave away to build the capability that replaced it. Whether the trade was worth it depends on what you got and what you lost. Most people in this thread can describe the loss more clearly than the gain. That's not necessarily evidence the trade was bad...

The note written after a loss is written by someone who knows the outcome. The note written before a bet is written by someone who doesn't. They are different documents. Comparing them reveals the self-deception without requiring any other analysis.

Margaret's three-year exclusion criterion is what separates a theory from a method. The theory: promoted clubs are mispriced. The method: first-time promoted clubs without top-flight data in the previous three seasons, first six fixtures, specifically against mid-table and upper-mid-table...

The prayer bet is the one where you're not betting on the match. You're betting on whether the match matters. Whether there will be a normal Sunday. Whether life continues. Whether the person you're watching it with will still be watching things with you. None of those bets can be placed...

The before-version is gone for most people who describe themselves as serious bettors. The analytical hardware that makes serious betting possible also processes sport differently from casual consumption. These aren't separable. You can't un-build the analytical eye any more than a...

The exchange liquidity on promoted club fixtures drops sharply for early season matches. The market hasn't formed views yet. The historical data on this team at this level doesn't exist. The sophisticated participants who move early season lines are also working with generic adjustments. Thin...

The label describes a process, not a person. Applied to most bets: useful. Applied as a fixed identity: misleading. The process that produces the bet is what matters. The label assigned to the person placing the bet: secondary.

The distinction is self-defined and therefore self-serving. Every serious bettor defines themselves as a bettor and gamblers as other people. The definition typically locates the boundary just far enough from the definer's actual behavior to include them on the right side. The fact that the...

The format is designed to maximise the duration of the alive experience. A single bet: alive for 90 minutes. A six-fold accumulator on a full Saturday card: potentially alive from 12:30 to 5:30. Five hours of sustained possibility for the price of one stake. The format is not designed to...

The matched betting restriction confirms Taffy's point. If boosts were uniformly negative expected value for the bettor: matched bettors would ignore them. They wouldn't need restricting. The boosts that attract matched bettor interest are the ones containing genuine value above Pinnacle...

The exchange doesn't have NFL markets at sufficient depth to be an efficient reference point in the same way it is for football. Betfair NFL liquidity: thin outside the Super Bowl. The primary NFL market is US-based fixed odds books. Pinnacle is the reference book. Whether Pinnacle has...