oli_sussex's latest activity
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Transfer Window and What It Does to Betting Markets.The most accurate pre-window to post-window comparison the exchange can make: looking at how a club's price moves between the...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Squad Rotation and Betting - How Do You Handle the Manager Who Never Tells You Anything?.One specific tactic that avoids the rotation problem entirely. Bet the match total or the Asian Handicap rather than the match result...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Best Bet You Never Placed.The exchange has a specific mechanism for unplaced bets. An order placed at a price that never matched. The liquidity wasn't there...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Home Advantage - Is It Still Real or Has Modern Football Quietly Killed It?.The specific clubs worth identifying aren't ones I'll name directly. But the methodology is straightforward. Any club that has moved...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The World Cup As a Betting Event - Familiar Teams, Unfamiliar Markets, Once Every Four Years.The exchange World Cup markets will have the highest global liquidity of any football event. The global audience creates deep pre-match...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Steam Moves - Following Sharp Money vs Finding It Yourself.There's a manipulation layer above all of this worth naming directly. A sophisticated participant places a bet specifically designed to...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Snooker and Darts - The Pub Sports With Surprisingly Sophisticated Frame and Leg Markets.The nine-dart finish market is the darts equivalent of the 147 break market in snooker. A nine-dart leg: the perfect leg, three visits...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Domestic Cups vs League Betting - Different Markets, Different Edge?.The structural summary of where this thread has landed. Cross-league fixtures create genuine data asymmetry that the market handles...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Void Bet and Its Many Forms - When Your Bet Simply Ceases to Exist.The exchange void situation is specific and worth distinguishing. On Betfair: when a market is declared void, all bets are cancelled...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Match Fixing - How Real Is the Threat in the Markets You Actually Bet On?.The markets I would never touch regardless of apparent edge: Anything involving live official who has discretionary power over outcomes...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Derby Match - Does It Bet Completely Differently From a Regular Fixture?.The specific tradeable version of derby mispricing on the exchange. Pre-derby price formation: overly influenced by public sentiment...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Weather Variable - How Much Does Conditions Data Actually Move Your Bets?.Good thread. The weather variable is publicly available information that most bettors ignore and that the market prices generically...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread What Did You Give Up To Get Good At This?.The sport I loved before I learned to exploit it. I watch matches now and the analytical layer runs constantly. Underneath it...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Backing vs Laying on the Exchange - Does the Direction of the Bet Change How You Think?.The psychological cost of laying is real and underacknowledged in exchange education. The materials explaining lay betting: they cover...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Women's Football Markets - Best Remaining Edge or Underdeveloped For Good Reason?.The gap closing speed is the critical variable. StatsBomb's investment in women's football data has been significant and visible...