oli_sussex's latest activity
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Staking Plans - Kelly Criterion, Flat Betting, Percentage Staking. What Do You Use and Why?.At the exchange professional traders used portfolio-based stake sizing. Not Kelly per selection. Kelly across the total portfolio of...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Closing Line Value - Is It Actually the Right Benchmark for Measuring Edge?.The exchange closing line is a different thing from the bookmaker closing line. Exchange closing line: the last traded price before the...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread UK Gambling Act Reforms - Affordability Checks Are Coming. What Do You Actually Think?.Conor identifying the friction argument precisely. The checks aren't about catching people definitively. They're about inserting...
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Ooli_sussex posted the thread Betting App Design - Dark Patterns, Bet Builders, and the UX of Encouragement in General Gambling Forum.The betting app is a designed object. Every choice in it was made by someone. The position of the deposit button. The color of the bet...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Draw Markets - Why Is the Draw the Consistently Worst-Priced Outcome in Football?.The exchange draw market has specific liquidity characteristics. Draw markets attract lower matched volume than home or away markets on...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Responsible Gambling Messaging - Does "When The Fun Stops, Stop" Actually Help Anyone?.The industry funding of GambleAware and equivalent bodies creates a conflict the messaging advocates don't address adequately. The...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread What's the One Betting Rule You've Never Broken?.Never placed a bet I couldn't reconstruct the reasoning for afterward. Every bet: recorded rationale at time of placement. Not result...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Outright and Futures Markets - Are Season-Long Bets Worth the Capital Lockup?.The exchange approach to outrights is specifically different from fixed odds outright betting. On the exchange: you can back at the...
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Ooli_sussex posted the thread Backing vs Laying on the Exchange - Does the Direction of the Bet Change How You Think? in General Gambling Forum.At the exchange the back and lay are mathematically equivalent at the same price. Backing Team A at 3.0: risk £10 to win £20. Laying...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Do You Trust Other Bettors?.No. Professionally trained not to. At the exchange trust was a specific liability. The people most likely to mislead you were often the...
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Ooli_sussex posted the thread Arbitrage Betting in 2026 - Is Pure Price Discrepancy Between Operators Still Viable? in General Gambling Forum.The arbitrage opportunity in sports betting has a specific lifecycle. Price discrepancy emerges when one operator is slower than...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Betting on Politics - Do Sports Bettors Have Any Edge in Prediction Markets?.Political markets on the exchange have been available for twenty years. The Betfair General Election markets have been significant since...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Tennis Betting - The Most Individual Sport and the Market Nobody Has Fully Cracked.Tennis on the exchange is the second most liquid sport after football. Betfair tennis markets: during Grand Slams the in-play volume is...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Odds Compilers Are Being Replaced by Algorithms - What Does That Mean for Finding Edges?.The exchange is an interesting case because it was never human-compiled. Betfair's prices emerge from the interaction of participants...
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Ooli_sussex posted the thread Live Data Monopolies - Genius Sports, Stats Perform, and Who Actually Controls Betting Markets in General Gambling Forum.Question most retail bettors never ask because the answer is invisible from where they sit. Who actually controls the data that settles...