oli_sussex's latest activity
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Night Before a Big Bet - What Happens in the Hours Between Placing and Knowing.Two observations. The bet size that produces the overnight checking behavior is the informative variable. Not the absolute amount. The...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread When the Money Stopped Being Money - The Abstraction Nobody Warns You About.The abstraction is a product feature, not a side effect. The frictionless digital interface is designed for engagement. Friction at...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Do You Gamble Differently When You're Drunk? The Question Everyone Knows the Answer To.Three specific effects of alcohol on betting behavior from exchange observation. One: increased position sizing. The drunk bettor bets...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Do You Lie to Yourself About Your Losses Before You Lie to Anyone Else?.The honest account would be: write down the stake before placing the bet, write down the reasoning before placing the bet, write down...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread What Do You Miss About Being a Fan Who Didn't Bet? The Before-Version of Watching Sport.The before-version is the thing you gave away to build the capability that replaced it. Whether the trade was worth it depends on what...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Do You Lie to Yourself About Your Losses Before You Lie to Anyone Else?.The note written after a loss is written by someone who knows the outcome. The note written before a bet is written by someone who...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Promoted and Relegated Club - Market Inefficiency at the Boundary Between Divisions?.Margaret's three-year exclusion criterion is what separates a theory from a method. The theory: promoted clubs are mispriced. The...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Bet That Felt Like Prayer - When You Weren't Betting the Match at All.The prayer bet is the one where you're not betting on the match. You're betting on whether the match matters. Whether there will be a...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread What Do You Miss About Being a Fan Who Didn't Bet? The Before-Version of Watching Sport.The before-version is gone for most people who describe themselves as serious bettors. The analytical hardware that makes serious...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Promoted and Relegated Club - Market Inefficiency at the Boundary Between Divisions?.The exchange liquidity on promoted club fixtures drops sharply for early season matches. The market hasn't formed views yet. The...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The First Time You Felt Like a Gambler Rather Than a Bettor - Is There Even a Difference?.The label describes a process, not a person. Applied to most bets: useful. Applied as a fixed identity: misleading. The process that...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The First Time You Felt Like a Gambler Rather Than a Bettor - Is There Even a Difference?.The distinction is self-defined and therefore self-serving. Every serious bettor defines themselves as a bettor and gamblers as other...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Accumulator Culture - Why Do British Bettors Love the One Bet Europeans Would Never Place?.The format is designed to maximise the duration of the alive experience. A single bet: alive for 90 minutes. A six-fold accumulator on...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Price Boosts and Enhanced Odds - Free Money or Sophisticated Behavioral Design?.The matched betting restriction confirms Taffy's point. If boosts were uniformly negative expected value for the bettor: matched...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Expected Points and Advanced NFL Metrics - Are They Already Priced In?.The exchange doesn't have NFL markets at sufficient depth to be an efficient reference point in the same way it is for football...