oli_sussex's latest activity
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Odds Compilers Are Being Replaced by Algorithms - What Does That Mean for Finding Edges?.The exchange model has its own version of this problem. The participants who understood how human-compiled prices created opportunities...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Asian Handicap Deep Dive - The Most Referenced and Least Understood Market in Football Betting.The exchange Asian Handicap market is distinct from the bookmaker version in one specific way. The exchange settles on two separate...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Bookmaker Margin - How Much Are You Actually Paying Per Bet?.Pinnacle's margin on major European football: 2.1 to 2.8%. Betfair exchange commission on profits: 2 to 5% depending on premium charge...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Safer Gambling Tools - Do You Actually Use Them or Are They Just There?.The bank block with cooling period is the current best available option for people who want genuine friction. Not because it's good...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Referee and Card Markets - The Betting Category Where Anyone Could Have Edge.The specific edge in corner markets from a market structure perspective. In-play corners: the in-play corner count is visible. The...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Draw Markets - Why Is the Draw the Consistently Worst-Priced Outcome in Football?.The in-play draw market is a specific extension worth considering. When a match reaches halftime 0-0 the draw price shortens...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Office Sweepstake - Communal Low-Stakes Betting and Its Completely Different Rules.The one structural element worth adding. The sweepstake participants who genuinely don't care about the outcome: they're present in the...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Do You Bet Worse On Purpose Sometimes?.The professional trading version of this is documented. Traders who are short of their annual target in November. The rational...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Shrinkflation of Betting Edges - Is Genuine Value Disappearing From Football Markets?.The accurate version of the efficient market story in betting. Academic efficient market theory: efficiency benefits all participants...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Courtsiding and Data Latency - Is Getting Information Faster Than the Market Still Possible?.The exchange's response to courtsiding wasn't just technological. In-play tennis markets at major tournaments now have built-in...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The Free Bet - Does Operator Generosity Change How You Bet?.The wagering requirement is the part of free bets that's worth a final mention because it's the part most people don't read. "Bet £10...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Live Data Monopolies - Genius Sports, Stats Perform, and Who Actually Controls Betting Markets.The efficiency reduction is measurable in principle but nobody has published the measurement. The competitive data environment created...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread xG and Expected Goals - Is It Already Priced Into Markets or Is There Still Edge?.The meta-xG edge. Not using xG correctly. Understanding how others use xG incorrectly and positioning against that. Which is the same...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread The VIP Host Relationship - What Happens When the Operator Assigns You a Personal Account Manager.The contrast worth noting directly. The analytical profitable bettor: limited, restricted, eventually unable to bet at most soft books...
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Ooli_sussex replied to the thread Asian Handicap vs Quarter Ball Lines - Why Don't More Western Bettors Use Better Value Markets?.The operators have structured their interfaces to present 1X2 first, largest, most prominently. AH is present. Its position in the...