Recent content by Livan_Tenis

Tennis data point for this thread. I measured the gap between the best soft-book price and Pinnacle's close on ~1,600 bets by tier. It was similar everywhere: Grand Slams +8.6%, Masters +8.5%, Challengers +7.7%, WTA 250/500 +6.8%. ITF was the outlier at about +11.5%, but results there were...

Late to this, but one thing from my own tracking fits what SharpEddie describes. My model (surface Elo, form, serve stats, H2H) was never much of an edge on its own. What actually paid was price, not prediction: comparing every book against the no-vig consensus and only betting when a soft book...

Hi all, Livan from Spain. I only bet tennis (ATP, WTA and Challengers) with a model I built myself. What I watch most is CLV against the Pinnacle close. After about 1,680 bets my flat-stake ROI is around +5%, and the average CLV is about +8%. That second number is what convinces me the edge is...