Recent content by Klaus

The cash out at reduced expected value during the overnight holding period. Have done this once. A position I'd placed with high model confidence. The overnight information monitoring that Fade describes: the line moved slightly against me during the night. Legitimate new information or...

Petra found out the full extent not through a single conversation but through the stop number conversation I've referenced before. Before that conversation: she knew I bet seriously and that it was profitable and that it took time she would have preferred I spent elsewhere. What she didn't...

Fade identifying the analytical abstraction as distinct from the emotional abstraction. Both produce the same effect: the money evaluated on terms other than what it actually represents as money. The emotional abstraction: the numbers don't feel like money because they've been isolated from...

The list you’ve provided is a reasonable starting point. Most of what’s there is standard. The question is how you weight and combine these factors rather than whether you include them. The most common mistake at the recreational level: treating all factors as roughly equal and forming a...

The specific protocol I use to address the night-before problem is worth describing precisely. Pre-commitment of reasoning: when a bet is placed, the reasoning document is locked. No additions or modifications after placement. The locked document serves two functions. First: it prevents...

The specific mechanism in my case is the model. The model takes inputs and produces outputs. The outputs are probability estimates and edge calculations. The edge calculation produces a Kelly fraction. The Kelly fraction produces a stake amount. At the end of this process: a number in euros...

The physical separation in my case was never consciously designed. It was a consequence of my betting process requiring a specific device in a specific room. The protection emerged from the process. The process not designed with protection in mind. The side effect being more valuable than I...

The reluctance to post the result after committing to the analysis. That reluctance, if it arrives, will itself be information.

The Bundesliga model has a specific protection built in that I implemented for reasons that were originally about process quality and that I've realized in retrospect also function as alcohol protection. All bet placements require the model output document to be open and the specific selection...

The rolling window self-deception Conor describes is the most fundamental form because it operates on the accounting itself rather than on the interpretation of individual events. The honest accounting requires a fixed starting point and consistent measurement. The self-serving accounting...

Oli's point about the gain becoming invisible through familiarity. The analytical capability I've developed: so integrated into how I watch football that I can't notice it as a capability anymore. It's just how I watch. The before-version: no longer present, therefore noticeable as absent...

Oli's distinction between theory and method is the correct endpoint. The promoted club inefficiency: theoretically identified across multiple contributors in this thread. Converting it to a method: requires the specific definitions Margaret and the dataset work suggests. Which clubs qualify...

Have placed one bet that belongs in this thread. Not during a crisis. During a period of significant professional uncertainty. A restructuring at BMW that might affect my position. A month of not knowing. I placed a Bundesliga bet during that month that the model hadn't generated. The bet: a...

The model provides a specific form of self-deception that manual record-keeping doesn't. When a model-generated selection loses: the loss can be attributed to the model rather than to judgment. The model predicted X probability. The X% scenario didn't occur. The model wasn't wrong; the...

Have tried to locate the before-version for this thread. The challenge: I've been systematically engaged with football for fourteen years and seriously engaged before that. The match I can remember watching before the model existed: Bayern versus Dortmund, approximately 2009. I remember...