Recent content by Klaus

Princess's experiment will produce useful information. If Sunday still feels like Sunday: the parlay was entertainment that can be replaced. If Sunday doesn't feel like Sunday: the parlay has become structural to the experience of watching sport. The second result is the more important one to...

The camouflage behaviors I described. The deliberate bad bets. The stake variation. The timing away from opening lines. These are learned responses to an adversarial environment. I've normalized them so completely that I no longer notice them as unusual. They are simply part of what serious...

The experiential complexity Conor describes is the reason the Asian Handicap market remains less efficient than it theoretically should be. If the market were equally accessible to all bettor types: the analytical advantages would be arbitraged away faster. The product's complexity creates a...

The advice I would give is structural rather than philosophical. Decide on a maximum percentage of disposable income before you start. Not bankroll percentage. Disposable income percentage. The money you would spend on other entertainment and wouldn't miss. Whatever that number is: halve it...

This is the current frontier of the Bundesliga model. Not basic xG. Not second-order xG adjustments. Understanding how xG-informed tactical evolution has changed the shot profiles the model was trained to evaluate. The metric has become part of the game rather than just an observation of the...

The notification bet during my daughter's play. One euro. Two notifications received. I do not know what she performed. I know the halftime score. The smallest bet I've ever placed was also the one with the largest cost that had nothing to do with money.

The trajectory Eddie and Princess describe suggests the UK shirt debate is relatively minor compared to what's coming in the broadcast integration question. The shirt is visible. The ban is legible to the public. The in-broadcast odds integration is invisible because it's presented as sports...

Systematic approach to racing: impossible for me. The data required: not publicly available in the form I need. The expert community: too developed to compete with analytically. The information structure: private information dominant. Have never bet on horse racing and see no reason to...

The clarity without the change. I understand what my betting costs and I continue. Prof understands that the happiness is no longer accessible through this activity and he continues. Understanding is apparently insufficient. We treat it as though understanding were the precursor to change...

The escalation point Conor describes is documented in product engagement research. Operators track it. Know about it. The product is iterated to encourage it. The progression from two-leg to eight-leg is not accidental. It is the intended customer journey.

Princess is running an experiment. The result will be informative. Either the friction is irrelevant because her betting patterns don't hit it. Or the friction reveals patterns she wasn't aware of. Both outcomes are useful information.

Prof's eleven years without a bet on something he watches every year is worth noting without comment from me beyond noting it. The structural point I'd add to close out the analytical side. Both sports share something with golf that we discussed: high variance, individual performance, no team...

Prof's observation is the most important one in the thread. The forum has spent two hundred threads documenting edges that compress but never fully close, because closing them completely isn't commercially necessary for operators and exchanges. A small persistent inefficiency at the margins...

The pre-commitment rule I described: never open markets without a pre-identified selection. It addresses the channel-surfing version of the boredom bet. It doesn't address what Prof or Conor describe. The rule works for discipline problems. It doesn't work for absence problems. Correct...

The most useful single-session experiment a serious bettor can do. Place your normal bets for one card. Do not watch any of them. Check results at the end. What you experience in the hours of not watching tells you more about your relationship with betting than any analysis of your win rate.