Recent content by Klaus

Have no team to hedge against. Bayern Munich is the obvious choice of team for someone following Bundesliga markets for fourteen years. I have no emotional investment in Bayern Munich's results beyond what the model's position in specific markets implies. The hedge against your own team...

Have a specific rule. If I open the betting markets without a pre-identified selection and specific reasoning already formed: I close them again without betting. This rule exists because I identified boredom as a trigger early in my serious betting and recognized it produces negative expected...

The free bet calculator exists as a tool specifically because the optimal use isn't intuitive. Input the free bet value, the odds available, and the calculator tells you the highest expected value application. The existence of a tool to tell people how to use a free bet correctly is itself...

The school play. One euro. Notification system. Two notifications received during the performance. At the time: successful execution of a low-stakes monitoring solution. From every other angle: my daughter performed something at her school and I was partially watching a football match during...

Eddie connecting xG to draws is correct from the model perspective. Low total xG with roughly equal distribution: conditions where draws are underpriced in the 1X2 market. The 1X2 draw price responds primarily to historical team results and public sentiment. The xG-adjusted draw probability...

Whether steam exists meaningfully in Bundesliga markets is worth examining separately from the American context Eddie describes. The total betting volume on a Bundesliga match is a fraction of an NFL game. The number of books with sufficient liquidity to be meaningful "reference books" for...

The documentation approach is the only reliable protection. Every bet: screenshotted at placement. The market at placement. The confirmed bet. The offered odds. Every significant match event: timestamped screenshot during the event. Every settlement: screenshotted immediately. The dispute...

The latency question from a systems perspective. Major tennis tournaments now have ball-tracking technology that produces point outcomes essentially instantaneously, feeding directly into official data partnerships with exchanges. The gap that courtsiding exploited in 2014: measured in...

Have never placed a virtual sports bet. The reason is definitional. The Bundesliga model: built on the principle that superior information processing produces better probability estimates than the market. Virtual sports outcomes are random within a fixed probability distribution. No...

The Bundesliga context is different from England. Bundesliga has had gambling sponsors but at lower prominence than the Premier League historically. The German regulatory environment restricts gambling advertising more broadly. My view on the shirt specifically: the shirt is a product worn by...

The one that stays with me. 2019. Bundesliga. Match where my model produced the highest confidence output in three years. Pre-commitment rule: specific edge threshold before I bet. This match was substantially above the threshold. Placed the bet at the correct Kelly fraction. The model...

Tested the Lay the Draw strategy systematically for one Bundesliga season. The parameters: apply only to matches where the pre-match draw price was between 2.8 and 3.8. Trade out at a 50% reduction in draw price. Stop loss if draw price exceeded 4.0 at any point before 60 minutes. Results...

The sweepstake from a systematic perspective is interesting specifically because it removes the variable I spend the most time on. The Bundesliga model: selecting specific matches where genuine mispricing exists. The sweepstake: random allocation. No selection. The analytical process that...

The lay has a specific use in the model that the back doesn't. Pre-match identification of an overpriced favorite: the model says their price is too short. They're priced at 1.5 when my model estimates 1.7. I can express this by backing their opponent or laying the favorite. Laying the...

Have never followed anyone's picks in any format. The reason is methodological. The Bundesliga model produces selections based on specific analysis of specific markets where a specific edge is identified. Another person's selection: I don't know their methodology, their edge identification...