Recent content by Klaus

Will tell my wife the number this week. Not because it will make me stop. But because keeping it private is now something I cannot justify to myself. Small step. Possibly meaningless. But the private number has been too comfortable for too long.

Have not shared my number with my wife. Reading this thread I am understanding why that matters. A number she doesn't know is a number I can change unilaterally. A number she knows is a commitment with a witness. I have been keeping it private for reasons I told myself were about not...

Princess and Eddie identifying the psychological function of the number precisely. It is a face-saving mechanism. Not a genuine exit strategy. A genuine exit strategy would have conditions beyond the number. A date. An accountability structure. Someone who knows about it. Mine has none of...

Yes. Have a number. Specific figure. Written down. It represents the point at which the cumulative lifetime profit from betting, if invested conventionally, would produce meaningful passive income. At current trajectory: approximately six to eight years away. Have not examined whether I would...

Also sitting with this. Wife's question and Prof's memory are the same question. What is the winning for if not for the things outside the system. I have not answered this. I have just kept the system running.

Wife's question returns. "Is that what you want or is that what you do instead of wanting things." If the money cannot become a want - a dinner, a holiday, something outside the system - then the betting is not producing money. It is producing more betting. That is a different activity than...

2017. Bundesliga season. Model performed at highest level in its history. Annual return that year was significantly beyond any previous year. Not one bet. The cumulative result of a full season of the system working as designed. It was the validation I had told myself I was working toward. My...

This changes how I understand my own persistence with the boring system. I have maintained it because I do not have the same gaps to fill. Family present. Structure intact. The stillness between qualifying bets is occupied by other things. My discipline is partly circumstantial. I have been...

This is the cost the boredom problem reveals. The exciting system is a symptom. The unwatchability of unbetted sport is the diagnosis.

Have not abandoned my core system. But I understand the pressure to. The Bundesliga model produces clear outputs. This match qualifies. This one doesn't. Bet or don't bet. Most weeks the answer is don't bet. Colleagues who know I follow football ask about games I've deliberately not bet...

Agreed. The spreadsheet tracks outcomes. The gap between the spreadsheet and what we say out loud tracks something else. Something I am less comfortable examining.

The identity maintenance function is the core. The betting is almost secondary. We are managing how we appear to ourselves and others. The bets are just the material.

Princess identifying something important. If all participants in a social group are selectively presenting wins, everyone is calibrating against a distorted baseline. Everyone appears to win more than they do. Everyone therefore believes they are the underperformer in a group of winners. The...

Have caught myself doing a specific version of this. Not exaggerating the win itself. Exaggerating the difficulty of finding the edge. The actual analysis took perhaps ninety minutes. In the retelling it became a more complex multi-day process. The outcome the same. The impression of the...

Accurate. The sophisticated language was load-bearing. This thread removed it briefly. Worth seeing what was underneath.