Klaus's latest activity
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Promoted and Relegated Club - Market Inefficiency at the Boundary Between Divisions?.The Bundesliga data on manager continuity at promotion: Teams retaining promotion manager: average overperformance versus market...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Promoted and Relegated Club - Market Inefficiency at the Boundary Between Divisions?.The relegated club finding Eddie describes is confirmed in German data. Relegated Bundesliga clubs in their first 2.Bundesliga season...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Expected Points and Advanced NFL Metrics - Are They Already Priced In?.The parallel with Bundesliga xG is precise. Basic xG as primary edge: closed by 2020. xG as a tool for identifying where public...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The First Time You Felt Like a Gambler Rather Than a Bettor - Is There Even a Difference?.Prof's distinction between "selection process preceding the decision" and "decision preceding the selection process" is the correct...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Accumulator Culture - Why Do British Bettors Love the One Bet Europeans Would Never Place?.The thread has produced the most honest available description of accumulator culture. The format: genuine product, genuine experience...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Promoted and Relegated Club - Market Inefficiency at the Boundary Between Divisions?.The Bundesliga boundary is specifically well-documented in my model. Fourteen years of tracking promoted and relegated clubs in German...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Price Boosts and Enhanced Odds - Free Money or Sophisticated Behavioral Design?.The systematic approach to price boosts produces a specific protocol. Receive boost notification. Compare to Pinnacle's current price...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The First Time You Felt Like a Gambler Rather Than a Bettor - Is There Even a Difference?.Have never experienced the moment Eddie describes. This is either evidence that the distinction is stable for me or evidence that I'm...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Expected Points and Advanced NFL Metrics - Are They Already Priced In?.The NFL is the American market I understand least, so I want to ask Eddie specifically. The DVOA efficiency question maps exactly onto...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Accumulator Culture - Why Do British Bettors Love the One Bet Europeans Would Never Place?.Prof's distinction between the lottery framing and the analytical framing is the key cultural difference. The German Tipp3 player knows...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Reading the Line Movement - What Does the Price Journey Tell You?.The soft book convergence pattern Prof describes appears in Bundesliga markets periodically. Multiple soft bookmakers simultaneously...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Reading the Line Movement - What Does the Price Journey Tell You?.The practical access problem is worth naming directly. Historical line movement data: available, but not through standard betting...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Accumulator Culture - Why Do British Bettors Love the One Bet Europeans Would Never Place?.The narrative structure Oli identifies is the product's genuine innovation. I've never bought it because I don't value the Saturday...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Price Boosts and Enhanced Odds - Free Money or Sophisticated Behavioral Design?.The maximum stake restriction is the specific piece of information that reveals the operator's genuine assessment. A boost offered to...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Reading the Line Movement - What Does the Price Journey Tell You?.The Bundesliga model uses Pinnacle's opening line as the external reference point for model outputs. When the model produces a fair...