Klaus's latest activity
-
KKlaus replied to the thread Asian Handicap Deep Dive - The Most Referenced and Least Understood Market in Football Betting.The Bundesliga model uses Asian Handicap as the primary expression market for two specific reasons. First: Pinnacle's Asian Handicap...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread Draw Markets - Why Is the Draw the Consistently Worst-Priced Outcome in Football?.The over-correction point Fade makes at halftime 0-0 is in my model. Matches where xG at halftime suggests the second half is likely to...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread What the Spreadsheet Says vs What You Feel - Which Wins When They Disagree?.The override rate question is the correct question and I've tracked it specifically. Bundesliga model, fourteen seasons of data...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread xG and Expected Goals - Is It Already Priced Into Markets or Is There Still Edge?.The meta-analysis point is valid but has limits. The public's bad xG application creates distortions in markets where the public...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread The Bookmaker Margin - How Much Are You Actually Paying Per Bet?.The margin calculation is the first thing the Bundesliga model applies to any market before any other analysis. A market with a margin...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread Referee and Card Markets - The Betting Category Where Anyone Could Have Edge.The corner market connection to xG analysis is worth noting. Attacking sequences that don't produce shots often produce corners. Teams...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread The Shrinkflation of Betting Edges - Is Genuine Value Disappearing From Football Markets?.The trajectory is clear. I continue because the edge remains positive and the methodology remains sound. The day those two conditions...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread What Time Do You Place Your Bets - And Is That the Worst Hour for Your Decision-Making?.Have tracked timestamp data since building the current model. The pattern is structured by design rather than discovered by analysis...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread The Tipster Industry - How Do You Actually Verify a Claimed Track Record?.The incentive structure makes honest accounting impossible. The tipster's income depends on subscription retention. Subscription...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread Closing Line Value - Is It Actually the Right Benchmark for Measuring Edge?.The sunk cost problem is the honest endpoint of this discussion. CLV as a benchmark was partly adopted because it's harder to fake than...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread The Office Sweepstake - Communal Low-Stakes Betting and Its Completely Different Rules.The structural analysis Eddie has done is accurate and worth acknowledging from someone who approaches betting mechanically. The...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread Goalscorer Markets - The Most Fun Bet in Football and Is There Actually Edge?.Have backed a third-choice centre-back for exactly this reason. Scored. Felt nothing particular. The correct outcome from a correctly...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread Steam Moves - Following Sharp Money vs Finding It Yourself.Fade's framing connects directly to the courtsiding thread. Courtsiding was about racing an outcome that had already happened...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread Brazil Just Opened One of the Biggest Betting Markets in the World. What Happens Next?.The product design point has merit beyond individual harm. Brazilian operators are in an acquisition phase. Maximum user growth is the...
-
KKlaus replied to the thread Odds Compilers Are Being Replaced by Algorithms - What Does That Mean for Finding Edges?.The retraining cost is the thing I'm currently experiencing. The methodology that produced strong results for a decade is producing...