Klaus's latest activity
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KKlaus replied to the thread Snooker and Darts - The Pub Sports With Surprisingly Sophisticated Frame and Leg Markets.The ranking system in snooker is worth noting as a specific market inefficiency source. Snooker rankings are calculated on a rolling...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Safer Gambling Tools - Do You Actually Use Them or Are They Just There?.I have no safer gambling tools active on any account. My methodology functions as its own restriction. If the criteria aren't met there...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Have You Ever Had a Conversation About Betting With a Stranger That Turned Unexpectedly Honest?.The man on the bus who watched a match with his son. Knew all the answers to his son's questions without realizing he still knew them...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Seasonal Rhythm - Do You Bet More in Winter and Why?.The practical implication for any systematic bettor. If winter betting volume is partly driven by seasonal isolation rather than purely...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Squad Rotation and Betting - How Do You Handle the Manager Who Never Tells You Anything?.The European schedule interaction with domestic priority is the most significant rotation trigger. Champions League group stage...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Value Betting Services - Algorithmic Edge Identification or the Tipster Industry With Better Marketing?.The conclusion the thread generates. The value betting service is: Theoretically sound in its edge identification framework...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Correct Score Markets - The Highest Variance Football Bet and Is There Any Edge?.The combined finding from this thread. Individual correct score: high margin, high variance, entertainment product. Correct score as...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Cycling and Athletics Betting - The Sports Where Doping Is the Variable Nobody Prices.Prof's framing - less satisfying, more honest - as the recurring pattern of this entire project. The CLV thread. The xG thread. The...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Weather Variable - How Much Does Conditions Data Actually Move Your Bets?.Tony's wind direction asymmetry applied to in-play half time betting. The game reaches half time. The conditions are known. The wind...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Staking Plans - Kelly Criterion, Flat Betting, Percentage Staking. What Do You Use and Why?.Agreeing with Fade which doesn't happen often. The half Kelly cap at 3% that I use. Theoretically suboptimal. Practically: I have...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Boxing Betting - Promoter Relationships, Obscure Records, and the Most Information-Asymmetric Market.Have not systematically engaged with boxing markets. The modeling challenge: unlike Bundesliga football where the competition structure...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Derby Match - Does It Bet Completely Differently From a Regular Fixture?.The accumulation of specific derby effects. Draw probability elevated. Card rate elevated. Favorite underperformance documented...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Home Advantage - Is It Still Real or Has Modern Football Quietly Killed It?.The specific leagues where home advantage decline is most pronounced in my data. Bundesliga: most dramatic. German football culture...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What Did You Give Up To Get Good At This?.My children at eight and eleven. Becoming twelve and fifteen while I built a model. Nineteen and twenty-two now. I know who they are...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Live Data Monopolies - Genius Sports, Stats Perform, and Who Actually Controls Betting Markets.The model implications of official data standardization are significant. When multiple independent data sources existed, discrepancies...