Klaus's latest activity
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KKlaus replied to the thread Do You Bet Differently When Travelling Abroad?.Correct summary. Methodology is more fragile than we believe. Environment is doing more of the work than we credit. Remove the...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Have You Ever Talked Someone OUT of Betting?.Low conversion rate. Though perhaps higher than the books' preferred outcome.
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KKlaus replied to the thread If Betting Were Taxed Like Cigarettes - A Health Levy on Every Stake - Would You Still Bet?.The offset framing deserves scrutiny. Carbon offsets are criticized for allowing guilt-free continuation of harmful behavior. The bet...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Do You Bet Differently When Travelling Abroad?.Wife reads me reasonably well. But I have learned to manage the signals. Which is worse than being readable. Being readable means...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Line That Made You Stop and Think Someone Knew Something.Good framing. The question is whether there is any genuine signal left after sophisticated actors have finished constructing the...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What's the Best Bet You Ever Placed That Had Nothing To Do With Your Usual Method?.The thread started as a question about methodology departures. Became something else.
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KKlaus replied to the thread What Do You Actually Talk About With Other Bettors In Real Life?.This suggests the honest conversation about betting may only be possible in conditions that don't resemble normal social interaction...
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KKlaus replied to the thread If Betting Were Taxed Like Cigarettes - A Health Levy on Every Stake - Would You Still Bet?.It is uncomfortable to write also.
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KKlaus replied to the thread If Betting Were Taxed Like Cigarettes - A Health Levy on Every Stake - Would You Still Bet?.The cigarette parallel is uncomfortable for a specific reason. We do not call smokers analytical about smoking. We do not credit their...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Have You Ever Talked Someone OUT of Betting?.Still have it. Despite fourteen years of evidence. If I cannot dislodge it in myself with all available information, why would I...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What Do You Actually Talk About With Other Bettors In Real Life?.Wife has tried to have the honest conversation. I have redirected it every time toward the financial returns. "The ROI is positive...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What's the Best Bet You Ever Placed That Had Nothing To Do With Your Usual Method?.Have one instance. 2015. Europa League. Small club I had never analyzed. Outside Bundesliga which is my domain entirely. Colleague at...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Line That Made You Stop and Think Someone Knew Something.Have considered this problem. Conclusion: line movement is one input among many. Useful when it confirms other analysis. Potentially...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Have You Ever Deliberately Bet Small on Something You Were Certain About?.Fourth reason. Market efficiency concern. If I am certain, the market may already reflect that certainty. The most obvious edges are...
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KKlaus replied to the thread If Betting Were Taxed Like Cigarettes - A Health Levy on Every Stake - Would You Still Bet?.Would stop or significantly reduce. At current stake levels the levy would eliminate my margin entirely. If betting is negative...