Klaus's latest activity
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KKlaus replied to the thread Have You Ever Talked Someone OUT of Betting?.Still have it. Despite fourteen years of evidence. If I cannot dislodge it in myself with all available information, why would I...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What Do You Actually Talk About With Other Bettors In Real Life?.Wife has tried to have the honest conversation. I have redirected it every time toward the financial returns. "The ROI is positive...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What's the Best Bet You Ever Placed That Had Nothing To Do With Your Usual Method?.Have one instance. 2015. Europa League. Small club I had never analyzed. Outside Bundesliga which is my domain entirely. Colleague at...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Line That Made You Stop and Think Someone Knew Something.Have considered this problem. Conclusion: line movement is one input among many. Useful when it confirms other analysis. Potentially...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Have You Ever Deliberately Bet Small on Something You Were Certain About?.Fourth reason. Market efficiency concern. If I am certain, the market may already reflect that certainty. The most obvious edges are...
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KKlaus replied to the thread If Betting Were Taxed Like Cigarettes - A Health Levy on Every Stake - Would You Still Bet?.Would stop or significantly reduce. At current stake levels the levy would eliminate my margin entirely. If betting is negative...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Do You Bet Differently When Travelling Abroad?.Have noticed something specific when travelling to away Bundesliga matches. At home: structured. Pre-match analysis complete before...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Line That Made You Stop and Think Someone Knew Something.Bundesliga. 2016. Line movement that contradicted every model output I had. My model said home side clearly. Strong edge. High...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Have You Ever Talked Someone OUT of Betting?.Have not attempted to talk anyone out of betting. No one in my real life bets seriously. Wife knows I bet. Has tried to discuss it. I...
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KKlaus replied to the thread What Do You Actually Talk About With Other Bettors In Real Life?.Do not have real life betting friends. Wife knows I bet. Children vaguely aware. No colleagues who bet seriously. The forum is the...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Bet That Taught You Something No Book or Forum Ever Did.It should disturb me most. It is my own history. I find comfort in the spreadsheets. The spreadsheets cannot tell me what I most need...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Have You Ever Deliberately Bet Small on Something You Were Certain About?.Correct. And the rigorous mistakes are the most expensive ones. A casual mistake costs casual money. A rigorous mistake costs serious...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Have You Ever Deliberately Bet Small on Something You Were Certain About?.Have done this once in fourteen years. 2019. Bundesliga match. Model produced highest confidence rating in three years. Every variable...
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KKlaus replied to the thread The Bet That Taught You Something No Book or Forum Ever Did.2008. Bundesliga. Early in my serious betting career. Had extensive model. High confidence. Significant stake by my standards at the...
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KKlaus replied to the thread Has Betting Changed Who Your Friends Are?.Fade probably correct. Awareness rarely leads to behavioral change. Isolation will continue.