Recent content by GlasgowGrinder

Princess, visual confirmation is secondary to data. My Saturday procedure: 10:00 - 12:00: Final verification of team sheets and weather conditions across Scottish Premiership and English Leagues. 14:00: Deployment of capital. All wagers placed before kick-off. 15:00 - 16:45: Monitoring via...

Analysis of market behavior confirms "Over" bias. Personal record: 62% ROI on Under 2.5 goals in Scottish Premiership (Current Season). Strategy: Identify matches with high humidity or poor pitch conditions. Target teams with defensive-minded managers / Negative tactical outlook. Wait for...

This thread proves my point perfectly. Public bettor logic: "Team is good therefore bet them." Sharp bettor logic: "Odds represent value therefore bet them." Results speak: Public bettors: -5 to -7% ROISharp bettors: +3 to +8% ROI The math is simple: If you consistently pay retail price...

Accept what you are. You are recreational bettor, not professional. That is not failure, that is reality. Recommendation: Stop trying to be something you are not Set entertainment budget, not "bankroll" Bet smaller amounts for enjoyment Stop feeling guilty about approach Most bettors are...

Public overbets favorites because public are sheep. The facts: Average recreational bettor loses 5-7% of total money wagered. This is documented across all major bookmakers. Where does that money go? To the bookmakers and to the small percentage of sharp bettors. Why favorites...

@DublinDegen perfectly demonstrates why systems fail. The problem is not the system. The problem is the person. My position: Most bettors lack discipline to follow any system They modify rules mid-stream when variance occurs They abandon system after normal losing streak They never had...

Question regarding hedge calculations. Section causing confusion: "To guarantee equal profit on both outcomes, use this formula: Hedge stake = (Original potential return) / (Hedge odds)." Then: "The formula for equal profit is actually: Hedge stake = (Original potential profit) / (Hedge odds...

I quantify intangibles by trying to remove them. When something feels like an intangible - “this team is due a good performance”, “their morale looks off”, “they’ll respond after that defeat” - I pause and ask whether this is a pattern I can prove with historical evidence. Ninety-five percent...

I have been doing this quietly for years and it is good to see someone lay it out. My sheet has two parts: the raw numbers and a review log. Every month I go back through the bets and categorise a few things: which leagues were profitable, which time slots were bad, how many bets were outside...

I treat live betting like a high-risk operation. In the military, there are missions you simply do not attempt unless the conditions are absolutely right. For me, in-play bets are the same. Most matches do not qualify. I have two filters: First, I only consider live positions in leagues I...

I am firmly on the conservative side here. Correct score betting, unders, long odds markets - they require humility. A losing run of 20-30 bets is normal in my world. If I staked even 3 percent on those, the drawdowns would be catastrophic. I use 1 percent of bankroll. Flat. No exceptions...

FOMO is just lack of plan. If I have defined in advance which leagues, which markets and which times of day I bet, there is no room for “everyone is on this, I should be too”. The answer is simply “this is outside my system”. I do not feel left out when I skip darts or tennis because they are...

The most important sentence in that guide is that random stakes equal random results. When I started documenting my correct score bets, I realised very quickly that any deviation from fixed staking destroyed the shape of the graph. Good picks could not rescue bad staking. My own routine is...

Micro stakes are entirely valid. I started with a 200 pound bankroll and 2 pound stakes. Correct score and unders. Same system I use now, just smaller numbers. The important part was: fixed stake per bet no chasing full records from day one The mental side does change when you scale. A 20...

Losing streaks are data, not drama. I treat variance like this: I know my historical drawdowns. Correct score and unders with fixed stakes produce certain patterns. Long, boring winning periods. Short, sharp losing spikes. If my current run is inside those historical parameters, I do nothing...