Recent content by GlasgowGrinder

Fair point. I did keep a stripped-down version as a sanity check after the trial. When my system and the Poisson-derived probabilities diverge heavily I investigate. My objection is to bettors abandoning discipline to chase complexity. If Poisson helps someone become more systematic, good. If...

Simple version: Extreme rest edges matter most. Minor rest edges usually priced in. Coaching edge shows over larger sample. For a single game bet I weight coaching slightly higher than small rest advantage, but only if my data supports that coach actually adding value.

I respect Poisson modelling. It is mathematically sound and aligns with how low-scoring sports behave. However, I care about one question above all: does it improve results relative to a simpler approach. I tested a basic Poisson model against my existing correct score system for two full...

I tried to quantify this a few years ago. Looked at three seasons of football data. Tagged matches with: Clear rest advantage, Clear coaching advantage (based on multi-season record vs spread and close game performance) Result was not conclusive in terms of “one always trumps the other.” What...

I tested “betting against the public” as a primary strategy about ten years ago. For one full season I tagged every football bet in my sheet with approximate public percentages from a couple of sites. Any time the public ticket count hit 70% or higher on a side, I marked whether my system was...

I ran a proper trial before I formed an opinion. For about a year and a half I logged every arb I could execute between a couple of soft books and the exchange. Stakes were fixed, records were detailed. The theoretical edge on paper averaged a little under two percent. By the time I accounted...

Online poker is more competitive now for one main reason: information is everywhere. Study tools, solvers, training sites - everyone has access. If you are not treating it like a job (bankroll rules, session review, note taking), you are the soft spot at the table, not the shark.

My view is simple: Define the criteria first (trophies, era strength, individual stats, longevity). Apply the same criteria to every candidate. Accept that different eras are almost impossible to compare perfectly. Conclusion: You can argue Messi, Ronaldo or others, but without clear criteria...

City look sharp at home. Leeds often bring energy and pressure on transitions, but defensively they have been shaky at times — that could play into City’s hands. Expected tempo: high from City, with likely attacking pressure. Chance of multiple goals, especially if Leeds push forward. If the...